Posts

Did the Fed Decision Weaken the Bull Market?

/in , /by

Did the Fed Decision Weaken the Bull Market?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Four Reasons the Fed Decision Caused Such a Big Selloff
  • Did the Fed Decision Weaken the Bull Market?

Futures are seeing a bounce following yesterday’s steep selloff despite more negative news overnight.

Politically, government shutdown risks spiked on Thursday after support for the stop-gap funding bill collapsed and a government shutdown on Friday is becoming more likely.

On earnings, Micron (MU) posted disappointing guidance and the stock is down –15% pre-open.

Today is another busy day of economic data and policy decisions.   The Bank of England has a rate decision (E: 25 bps cut) while there are numerous U.S. economic reports including, in order of importance,  Jobless Claims (E: 232K), Philly Fed (E: 2.5), Final Q3 GDP (E: 2.8%) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05 million).  The market needs Goldilocks data to help it hold this early bounce and any data that’s “Too Hot” (meaning much stronger than expected) will only increase hawkish Fed worries, push yields higher and likely hit stocks, again.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What to Expect from Markets in 2025

/in , /by

What to Expect from Markets in 2025: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What to Expect from Markets in 2025
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does the Fed Keep Cutting and Does Data Stay Goldilocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  All Eyes on the Fed Dots

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news and despite mixed global economic data.

Chinese Retail Sales (3.0% vs. (E) 4.6%) and Fixed Asset Investment (3.3% vs. (E) 3.5%) both missed estimates, reminding investors that despite promises for more stimulus, Chinese growth remains lackluster.

In Europe, data was better as the flash Composite PMIs for the EU (49.5 vs. (E) 48.0) and the UK (50.5 vs. (E) 50.0) both beat estimates.

Today focus will be on the Empire Manufacturing Survey (6.4) as that’s the first data point for December and investors will want to see in an-line to slightly soft reading to reinforce the Goldilocks narrative.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Has Tech Been So Strong? (Again)

/in , /by

Why Has Tech Been So Strong? (Again): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Has Tech Been So Strong? (Again)

Futures are modestly higher following better than expected tech earnings overnight.

Broadcom (AVGO) earnings were mixed but management commentary was bullish and the stock is rallying 15% pre-market and that’s helping to boost tech stocks and broader market futures.

Economically, the notable data was from the UK and it was soft.  Monthly GDP (-0.1% vs. (E) 0.2%) and Industrial Production (-0.6% vs. (E) 0.3%) both missed estimates.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers, so markets will likely follow the tech sector.  If the AVGO led tech rally this morning can hold, it should pull other indices and sectors higher with it.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the CPI Report Means for Markets

/in , /by

What the CPI Report Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the CPI Report Means for Markets

Futures are modestly lower on a surprise central bank rate hike and after ADBE posted disappointing guidance.

Brazil’s Central Bank hiked rates 100 bps (more than expected) and promised more rate hikes in the future, reflecting some mild fraying of the global rate cut cycle.

ADBE guidance missed investor expectations and it’s the second underwhelming tech report this week (after ORCL).

Today focus will be on rate cuts and economic data.  First, we get the ECB Rate Decision and markets expect a 25 bps cut (if there’s no cut, that’d be a surprise negative).  Economically, the key report today is Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and markets will want to see another Goldilocks reading (so around the 220k level).  We also get the latest PPI report (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) but barring a big jump, it shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, on the earnings front, the key report today is AVGO ($1.39) and markets will want to see a solid tech report to stop this mini-trend of underwhelming guidance (from ORCL and ADBE this week).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

/in , /by

Jobs Day: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Updated VIX Analysis

Futures are slightly lower following a mostly quiet night of news and ahead of today’s jobs report.

Economically, German Industrial Production missed expectations (-1.0% vs. (E) 1.5%) and became the latest underwhelming EU economic report.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  200K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate, 3.9% y/y Wage Growth.  A “Goldilocks” job adds number is something around the 200k expectation or lower, as long as it’s not close to zero.  Anything in that range (with mostly in-line unemployment and wages) should “green light” a Fed rate cut in December and help fuel a Santa Rally.

Speaking of the Fed, there are numerous speakers today including Bowman (9:15 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (10:30 a.m. ET), Hammack (12:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (1:00 p.m. ET).  However, most of them have spoken recently and their message has been consistent:  A December rate cut is possible but not guaranteed and rates will come down over time.  As long as that’s the message from them today, they shouldn’t impact markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview

/in , /by

Jobs Report Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news and mixed economic data.

European economic data continued to point to lack-luster growth.  German Manufacturers’ Orders (-1.5% vs. (E) -2.0%) and UK Construction PMI (55.2 vs. (E) 54.3) beat while Eurozone Retail Sales (-0.5% vs. (E) 0.0%) missed expectations.

Bitcoin rose above $100k for the first time in overnight trading, hitting a new milestone.

Today the focus will shift to employment ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report as we get Challenger Job Cuts (E: 55k) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K).  The key for both metrics remains Goldilocks readings (generally meeting expectations but not too weak or too strong).  Additionally, there is one Fed speaker today, Barkin (12:15 p.m. ET).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Unique ETF Focused on Managing Tax Liabilities

/in , /by

A Unique ETF Focused on Managing Tax Liabilities : Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Unique ETF Focused on Managing Tax Liabilities
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – Another Goldilocks Report

Futures are higher with tech shares leading thanks to solid earnings reports after the close yesterday as investors look past political turmoil overseas.

Politically, lawmakers in South Korea moved to impeach President Yoon for implementing martial law yesterday while the French government faces a no-confidence vote today. Neither situation is a material negative for markets but both are weighing on sentiment.

In corporate news, CRM and OKTA (a newer cloud software focused company) both posted solid earnings after the close yesterday which is bolstering the broader tech sector in premarket trade today.

Today, we will get two more important economic reports: The ADP Report (E: 165K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 55.5). Factory Orders (E: 0.4%) will also be released but is less likely to move markets than the first two data points.

The Fed’s Musalem is scheduled to speak at 8:45 a.m. ET, however the market’s main focus today will be Powell’s commentary (1:45 p.m. ET) as he could shed light on December rate cut plans or the policy rate path in 2025. Any hawkish surprise from the Fed Chair could spur volatility today.

Finally there is one notable earning release today from discount retailer DLTR ($1.07) that could offer insight into consumer spending habits.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sentiment Divergence Between Advisors and Investors

/in , /by

Sentiment Divergence Between Advisors and Investors: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment: Divergence Appearing Between Investors and Advisors
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

Futures are little changed amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and ongoing political turmoil in Europe.

Overnight, China announced an export ban of specific rare minerals with military applications to the U.S. in the latest escalation of trade tensions between the two countries.

EU shares edged higher ahead of the French government’s “vote of no confidence” (tomorrow) linked to ongoing budget turmoil.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: JOLTS (E: 7.49 million) and Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.0 million). Investors will want to see more “Goldilocks” data to support post-election growth optimism.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers to watch: Kugler (12:35 p.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:30 p.m. ET and 3:45 p.m. ET), and as long as they do not offer any hawkish surprises, stocks should be able to extend gains to new record highs today.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why the Gaetz Withdrawal Sparked Yesterday’s Rally

/in , /by

Why the Gaetz Withdrawal Sparked Yesterday’s Rally: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Gaetz Withdrawal Sparked Yesterday’s Rally
  • Examining the Strange Positive VIX and S&P 500 Correlation

Futures are modestly weaker following surprisingly disappointing economic data from Europe.

The EU November flash PMIs tumbled (48.1 vs. (E) 50.2) with all three metrics (composite, manufacturing and services) falling below 50 and signaling contraction.

Similarly, the UK November flash PMIs were also weak (49.9 vs. (E ) 51.8) signaling a sudden drop in activity.

Today focus will remain on data and the more Goldilocks the data, the better for markets.  The key reports today are the November Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.8) and Flash Services PMI (E: 55.2) while we also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 73) and, within that report, the 1-Yr Inflation expectations (E: 2.6%).  Again, in-line to slightly soft data will be the best outcome for stocks, as that implies solid growth and encourages a rate cut in December.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker today, Bowman (6:15 p.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Data Check: Hard Landing or Soft Landing?

/in , /by

Data Check: Hard Landing or Soft Landing?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Chart: NVDA Earnings Loom Large – Key Technical Support in Focus

Futures are slightly higher but well off session highs as “warm” EU inflation data pushed yields higher overnight with the U.S. 10-Yr pushing back beyond 4.40%.

Economically, inflation data in Europe was “warm” as U.K. Core CPI rose 3.3% y/y vs. (E) 3.2% in October while German PPI unexpectedly rose 0.2% m/m last month following a sizeable 0.5% drop in September.

There are no notable economic reports today but there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move markets depending on demand measures for the longer duration government bonds (higher yields would weigh on stocks again).

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers today Cook (11:30 a.m. ET) and Bowman (12:15 p.m. ET), but unless they are materially hawkish, their comments should not move markets.

Finally, earnings season has largely wound down however there are some notables reporting quarterly results today including: TGT ($2.29), TJX ($1.09), NVDA ($0.74), PANW ($1.48), SQM ($0.64).

Interestingly, Barclays analysts noted earlier this week that options markets suggest today’s report from NVDA will be the biggest catalyst remaining in 2024, underscoring the importance of investor sentiment towards the AI-darling’s growth prospects, leaving the chip-maker’s earnings report a potential make-or-break event for markets this afternoon.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.