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Market Multiple Table Chart: September

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart (September Update)

Futures are slightly lower following more mixed economic data overnight.

There were no changes to the Market Multiple Table Chart for September, leaving the July/August target levels in place.

Japanese GDP (1.2% vs. (E) 1.3%) and Euro Zone GDP (0.1% vs. (E) 0.3%) both slightly missed expectations and further hinted at a loss of economic momentum.  Meanwhile, German CPI was in line with expectations (0.3% m/m, 6.1% y/y) as inflation in the EU remains sticky.

Today the calendar is mostly quiet, but focus will be on the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Previous 212.0) and markets will want to see that “bell weather” for inflation continue to decline. If the MUVVI falls solidly we could see Treasury yields dip and stocks enjoy a relief rally.  Other notable events today include Consumer Credit (E: $18.0B) and a speech by Fed Governor Barr at 9:00 a.m. ET, but neither event should move markets.

September Market Multiple Table Chart

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Market Multiple Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Chart
  • Why the Rally Has Stalled This Week (Three Reasons)

Futures are moderately lower thanks to more regulatory fears in China and earnings guidance cuts from U.S. companies.

China has warned tech companies about online gaming activities in the latest volley of potential regulations.

United Airlines (UAL) cut guidance as demand for air travel has softened recently due to rising COVID cases, adding to a surprisingly high number of guidance cuts this week.

Today the key event is the ECB Rate Decision (Press Release 7:45 a.m., Press Conference 8:30 a.m.) and markets will be looking to see if the ECB formally announces tapering is coming (it’s possible but not the consensus expectation).  Away from the ECB, we also get Jobless Claims (E: 344K) and numerous Fed speakers today (nine speeches in total) but only Williams (2:00 p.m.) is leadership and we already know what he thinks from his comments yesterday (tapering will start in late 2020 but be gradual).