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Putting the Tech Sector Dominance in Real Numbers

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting the Tech Sector Dominance in Real Numbers
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

Markets are risk-off this morning with stock futures down ~1% while bonds are bid thanks to the combination of cautious comments from banking executives at a global conference overnight and disappointing PLTR earnings (shares down 7%+ in premarket trade).

Looking into today’s session there are a handful of economic releases to watch today including: International Trade in Goods (E: $-64.1B), Factory Orders (E: 0.2%), and JOLTS (E: 7.3 million) assuming none are delayed due to the government shutdown.

There is one Fed speaker on the calendar as well as Bowman began speaking at 6:35 a.m. ET at the Santander International Banking Conference in Spain.

Finally, we will get earnings and guidance figures from more important multi-national companies today, including UBER ($0.67), SPOT ($1.87), AMD ($0.97), SMCI ($0.19), AXON ($0.07), AMGN ($5.00), and PFE ($0.66), and based on the risk-off money flows related to the soft PLTR release that is weighing on equities today, investors will want to see better numbers, especially out of tech-focused firms.

 

ISM PMI Day (More Important than the Jobs Report)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Minor Post Fed Adjustments)
  • Is Dr. Copper Sending Another Signal?

Futures are slightly higher following yesterday’s declines thanks to decent economic data and ahead of the jobs report and ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Global manufacturing PMIs were a bit better this morning as a private market reading of Chinese manufacturing beat estimates (51.7 vs. (E) 51.0) and that’s notable because it contradicts the soft government reading from Thursday.  Additionally, the British manufacturing PMI also beat estimates.  The Japanese reading, however, was soft (48.4 vs. (E) 48.9).

Bottom line, global manufacturing PMIs aren’t collapsing, but they aren’t showing the type of stabilization that markets have priced in, either.

Today the focus will be on economic data and while the Employment Situation report (E: 93K job adds, 3.6% UE rate, 3.0% wage growth) will dominate the headlines, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.0) is actually going to be the more important report, because if it shows further deterioration, that will increase worries about the U.S. economy.  More broadly, as we said yesterday, with the Fed on hold, “good” data is good for stocks, and “bad” data is bad.

Finally, there are two notable Fed speakers today, Williams (12:00 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. ET) and Clarida (1:00 p.m. ET) although neither should move markets given we just heard from Powell.