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An Easy Way to Monitor Concerns About AI ROI

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Easy Way to Monitor Concerns About AI ROI
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

Futures are trading higher with tech leading after PLTR and Samsung both posted very strong Q4 earnings results while a stabilizing precious metals market and optimism Congress will pass a spending bill are bolstering sentiment.

Economically, French CPI fell to +0.3% Y/Y in January vs. (E) +0.7%, down from +0.8% in December which is easing concerns about higher-for-longer central bank policy rates.

Today, there was one important economic report due to be released: JOLTS (E: 7.245 million) but it will be delayed due to the government shutdown.

The only other potential macro catalysts are a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and the Fed’s Barkin scheduled to speak before the open (8:00 a.m. ET) however, neither will likely move markets meaningfully with focus on the spending bill in Congress/government shutdown.

Finally, earnings season continues with quarterly reports due from PYPL ($1.29), PEP ($2.24), MRK ($2.03), AMGN ($4.75),  AMD ($1.11), and SMCI ($0.41) today.

 

Does the Warsh Nomination Jeopardize the Rally?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Does the Warsh Nomination Jeopardize the Rally?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is the Goldilocks Economy Still Rolling?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: “Big Three” Monthly Reports This Week (Including Jobs Friday)

Futures are moderately lower on momentum from Friday’s decline as markets digest the surprise Warsh nomination.

Geopolitical headlines were mixed as the government partially shutdown (but should be brief) while fears of a strike against Iran receded on positive Trump comments.

Economically, Chinese Feb. PMIs missed estimates and both the manufacturing and services PMIs fell below 50.

Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.3) as that is the first of the big monthly economic reports, and the stronger the data, the better for stocks.

We also have one Fed speaker today, Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets (the market just wants to hear from Warsh now)

Earnings continue on, meanwhile, and some key reports today include: DIS ($1.57), PLTR ($0.17), NXPI ($2.93).

 

What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways
  • Chart: Copper Hits Fresh All-Time Highs

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as the two-day gain to start 2026 is digested ahead of more U.S. economic and the all-important Consumer Electronics Show where NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang will speak at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Economically, the Final Eurozone Composite PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.5 vs. (E) 51.9 in December which mildly dented global soft landing optimism overnight.

Looking into the U.S. session, the Final U.S. Composite PMI (E: 53.0) and data on Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.7 million) are due to be released today while there is one Fed official speaking ahead of the bell: Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET).

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy expectations, however it will be most important to see a Goldilocks PMI print ahead of the most widely anticipated event of the day, the Consumer Electronics Show, where NVDA’s CEO is the keynote speaker scheduled to deliver remarks just as markets close (but futures will continue to trade as he speaks).