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Tom Essaye Warns Rally Lacks Confirmation From Key Markets

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Tom Essaye says stocks may be moving too fast without support from bonds and oil.

U.S. stocks may be moving past the Iran conflict — but these markets aren’t sending the ‘all clear’ just yet

That could be a sign that investors should think twice before chasing the rally in stocks, said Tom Essaye, publisher of Sevens Report Research, in commentary shared with MarketWatch.

“While we are happy stocks have rebounded, this furious 10-day rally has not been confirmed by other asset classes, most notably Treasury yields and oil prices, and we do think that nonconfirmation should give some stock investors cause for pause,” Essaye said.

“If the oil markets were as confident about a lasting detente between the U.S. and Iran, oil prices would be solidly lower,” Essaye said in written commentary. He also pointed out that the 2-year Treasury yield is still well above its prewar level, signaling that bond traders aren’t as confident that the Fed will cut interest rates later in the year.

“Now, to be clear, this nonconfirmation does not automatically mean that stocks are ‘wrong’ and oil/Treasurys are ‘right.’ Treasury yields could fall sharply in the coming days to confirm the move in stocks and oil could plunge on any announcement of a more permanent ceasefire,” Essaye added.

“However, it does show us that not all traders and strategists are viewing the impacts of the war as being so ‘transitory’ as the move in stocks implies.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on April 15th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Investor Sentiment Update (Not as Bullish as One Would Think)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: Not Nearly as Bullish as One Would Think
  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index – An Upside Surprise
  • December FOMC Meeting Takeaways

U.S. futures are lower along with global markets after a mostly quiet night of news as the solid 2025 stock market advance continues to be digested into year-end.

Economically, China’s CFLP Composite PMI rose to 50.2 in December from 49.5 in November vs. (E) 49.7 but the strong data print failed to generate any market enthusiasm overnight.

Today, there is one final noteworthy economic report before the end of the year: Jobless Claims (E: 218K) and investors will be looking for a Goldilocks print to shore up soft-landing expectations.

Additionally, the Treasury will hold auctions for 4-Week, 8-Week and 4-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and markets will want to see healthy demand to support dovish Fed policy expectations for 2026.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today and the bond market will close early (2:00 p.m. ET) ahead of the New Years Holiday as markets cap off another solid year of stock market returns.