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Five Measurable Similarities To 2006/2007

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Five Measurable Similarities To 2006/2007: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Sevens Report Research sees similarities to 06/07, market susceptible to bouts of sudden volatility

Sevens Report Research said in its morning note on Friday that they see “five measurable similarities to 2006/2007.”

The firm explained that answering the question regarding what lies ahead for the stock market and bond market in 2024 is especially difficult right now, considering “the slew of mixed signals we are facing as we approach the end of 2023.”

“A few of those notable signals include 1) The deepest yield curve inversion since 1981, 2) The highest real interest rates since 2008, 3) Unexpectedly resilient economic data with Real GDP pushing 5% in Q3, 4) Stocks testing all-time highs, and 5) A historically complacent VIX reading,” they stated.

“But these are not unprecedented dynamics, and frankly, they’re reminiscent of the time period spanning 2006 and 2007,” said the firm.

“As long as the market’s fundamental consensus is uncertain and lacks conviction, which remains the case right now, this market will be susceptible to pullbacks and bouts of sudden volatility,” claims the firm.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on December 22nd, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Markets Have Aggressively Priced In No Recession Or Slowdown

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Markets Have Aggressively Priced In No Recession Or Slowdown: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: Eyeing record highs

“Markets have aggressively priced in no recession or slowdown, but that’s premature. The economy could easily slow and there are some signals slowing growth is happening,” analysts at Sevens Report said.

Sevens Report analysts: “For this rally to continue, we can’t have economic data suddenly start to miss expectations, because now that the Fed has made its dovish pivot, it can’t help markets if worries about an economic slowdown rise. That’s why we’re watching economic data closely at the start of the year.”

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on December 18th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

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Jobs Day: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as markets await the jobs report later this morning.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was German CPI which met expectations, rising 3.2% y/y.

Globally, the yen is falling slightly but global yields are higher as markets digest a potential Bank of Japan rate hike later this month.

Today the jobs report is the key event and expectations are as follows:  180K job adds, 3.9% Unemployment Rate, 0.3% m/m & 4.0% y/y wages.  Keeping things simple, the key to today’s jobs report is whether it refutes the expectation for a March rate cut or reinforces it.  A “Too Hot” number will refute that March rate cut expectation and stocks and bonds will likely drop while a Goldilocks number will reinforce expectations for a March cut and stocks should rally.

Outside of the jobs report, we also get University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 61.9) and the 1-Year and 5-year Inflation Expectations but barring a major surprise these numbers shouldn’t move markets.

Jobs Day

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter, and Technicals.

We’ve been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2023 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products. If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Bull vs. Bear Case: Part II

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Bull vs. Bear Case: Part II: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Bull Case vs. The Bear Case – Part II
  • Chart – Gold Breaks Out to the Upside
  • Consumer Confidence Data Points to Soft Landing

Stock futures are tracking European equities higher this morning while the 10-Yr Note yield is below 4.30% at two month lows following less-hawkish ECB commentary and more evidence of disinflation in the Eurozone.

Economically, Spanish CPI fell to 3.2% vs. (E) 3.7% y/y while multiple regional German inflation prints suggest headline German CPI will come in well below the 3.5% estimate later this morning.

The ECB’s Stournaras notably said in commentary early this morning that rate cuts could come as soon as the middle of next year which saw more policy easing priced into rates futures markets in Europe and invited new bids into the bond markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are two domestic economic reports to watch this morning: GDP (E: 4.9%) and International Trade in Goods (E: -$86.7B) while there is just one Fed speaker in the afternoon: Mester (1:45 p.m. ET).

Bottom line, the early bid in the U.S. equity futures market and new lows in bond yields are being driven by cooler-than-expected inflation data in the EU, so it will be critical for the German CPI report to come in below estimates of 3.5% when the data is released at 8:00 a.m. ET. If so, expect the dovish rally to extend into Wall Street trading today.

Bull vs. Bear Case: Part II

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Understanding Why Stocks Rallied Part Two

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Understanding Why Stocks Rallied Part Two: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Why Stocks Rallied Part Two (Visual Aid)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are little changed despite underwhelming earnings as markets further digest Tuesday’s rally.  There was no notable economic data overnight.

CSCO (down 11%) and PANW (down 5%) both posted disappointing earnings although the positive macro news from earlier this week is helping markets stay buoyant.

Today we have several important economic reports as well as numerous Fed speakers.  For the economic data, the key remains “Goldilocks” readings that aren’t so good it makes the market rethink dovish Fed expectations, yet not so bad it increases hard landing worries.  Key reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 222K), Philly Fed (E: -11.0), and the Housing Market Index (E: 40) and close to in-line readings for each will help markets continue to hold Tuesdays’ gains.

On the Fed front, there are a slew of speakers today but the most important one is Williams (9:25 a.m. ET) because he’s part of Fed leadership.  Don’t be surprised if Fed officials push back on the markets aggressively dovish expectations today but unless Williams comes out and says another rate hike is very possible, markets will likely ignore the rhetoric.  The list of speakers today includes:  Barr, Mester, Williams, Waller, and Cook.

Understanding Why Stocks Rallied

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Was the CPI a Bullish Gamechanger?

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Was the CPI a Bullish Gamechanger? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was the CPI Report a Bullish Gamechanger?
  • CPI Data Analysis and Takeaways

Stock futures are extending the November gains this morning and Treasuries are steady after more cool inflation readings in Europe and stabilizing economic data in China.

Economically, Chinese FAI and Industrial Production figures met estimates while Retail Sales importantly accelerated to 7.6% vs. (E) 7.0% in October up from 5.5% in September.

In Europe, CPI data from the U.K., France, and Italy all met estimates or came in “cooler” than expected. This bolsters the view that global central banks are done with rate hikes, fueling risk-on money flows today.

Today, there are several economic reports to watch early: PPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.0% y/y), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -3.0), and Retail Sales (E: -0.3%). The market will be looking for more signs of cooling inflation in the PPI release. And no major surprises either way in the Empire and Retail Sales releases as the market is still vulnerable to data that is “too hot” (risks of more Fed tightening) or “too cold” (risks of a “hard landing”).

There are also two Fed speakers today: Barr (9:30 a.m. ET) and Barkin (3:30 p.m. ET) but neither are expected to move markets.

Was the CPI Report a Bullish Gamechanger?

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The Israeli Operation in Gaza May Help Ease Geopolitical Tensions

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Ease Geopolitical Tensions: Tom Essaye Quoted in Investing.com

From Israel’s Gaza Incursion to Apple’s Launch: Weekly Market Wrap

Economic Conditions and Expert Opinions:

Notably, Tom Essaye from The Sevens Report newsletter noted that the Israeli operation in Gaza might be helping ease geopolitical tensions. 

Despite the positive reaction to the Middle East situation, global equities are still on a trajectory towards their third consecutive monthly decline, attributed to increasing bond yields, a few unexpected tech earnings outcomes, and geopolitical worries.

This week also anticipates numerous key economic events, including interest rate decisions from various central banks, consumer confidence indices, and earnings reports from major corporations like Apple.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on October 30th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview: Forward Guidance Will Be Critical

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Forward Guidance Will Be Critical: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview – What’s Expected, Dovish-If, Hawkish-If, Forward Guidance Will Be Critical
  • Chart: 10-Yr Yield Approaches Critical Tipping Point

Futures are cautiously higher thanks to more evidence of disinflation in Europe. While an underwhelming yield curve control policy announcement by the BOJ is digested by global investors.

Economically, Eurozone CPI fell from 4.3% in September to 2.9% in October, well below estimates calling for 3.4% which further supports the narrative that global inflation pressures are easing considerably. Meanwhile, quarterly GDP in the EU disappointed, turning negative at -0.1% vs. (E) 0.0% which is rekindling recession worries in the Eurozone.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports to watch this morning. The Employment Cost Index (E: 1.0%) being the most important for markets. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.7%) and latest Consumer Confidence report will also be released later in the morning (E: 100.0) but are less likely to move markets.

This week’s FOMC meeting gets underway today which will likely mean a familiar sense of Fed paralysis will begin to grip markets ahead of tomorrow’s policy decision, however, there is a 52-Week Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and influence equity market trading in the early afternoon.

Finally, earnings season is winding down but there are a few notable releases today. Starting with CAT ($4.75) and JBLU (-$0.27) reporting ahead of the bell with AMD ($0.68) after the close.

FOMC Preview - Magnifying Glass

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Is Another Crash Imminent?

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Is Another Crash Imminent? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Another Crash Imminent?
  • Chart – M2 Money Supply Still Up Massively Despite QT
  • The Recent Gold Rally and Inflation Expectations

Stock futures are rebounding modestly this morning amid further stabilization in the Treasury market as big tech earnings come into focus while economic data overseas disappointed overnight.

The Eurozone PMI Composite Flash came in at 46.5. vs. (E) 47.4 with a softer than expected Services sub-index which added to existing recession worries in the EU overnight. And that soft data is contributing to the steady bond market this morning.

Looking into the U.S. session, there is one economic report to watch: PMI Composite Flash (E: 49.4), and as has been the case, a release that supports a soft-landing scenario (easing growth and falling price measures) will support stocks while a “hot” report that sends yields back higher will be a negative.

There are no Fed speakers today but there is a “policy-sensitive” 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.  If demand is weak, that could put upward pressure on yields and reintroduce a headwind on equities and other risk assets as big tech earnings come into focus this week.

Earnings Update

Earnings season continues to ramp up this week with: KO ($0.69), VZ ($1.17), GE ($0.56), MMM ($2.34), and SYF ($1.44) reporting before the bell. While MSFT ($2.65), GOOGL ($1.45), and V ($2.23) will release results after the close.

Investors will want to see some better than expected results from the big tech names as they have been responsible for most of the 2023 stock market gains. Any disappointment will almost certainly mean new lows in the major indices this week.

Is Another Crash Imminent

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here. 

Why Have Stocks Dropped?

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Why Have Stocks Dropped? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Have Stocks Dropped (And Are the Reasons Legitimate?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Focus Turns to Earnings (And They Need To Be Good)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Growth and Inflation Updates

Futures are solidly lower following a further increase in geopolitical tensions and a lack of domestic political progress over the weekend.

Attacks on Israel from Lebanon increased over the weekend, raising fears of a two-front conflict.

Domestically, political gridlock continued as nine Republicans are now running for Speaker. But it’s not clear any of them have enough support to actually become Speaker.

Today the calendar is quiet as there’s just one notable economic report, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: 0.05), so focus will remain on yields.  The 10-year yield sits at 5.00% as of this writing, and the higher it goes today, the lower stocks will likely fall.  Any progress on electing a Speaker of the House will be welcomed by the markets and likely push yields lower.

On the earnings front, we get a lot of important reports later this week, including MSFT, AMZN, KO, VZ, META, and others. But they come on Tues/Wed/Thurs and today there are just two reports to watch:  CLF ($ 0.46) and LOGI ($0.60).

Why Have Stocks Dropped

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