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That marks the start of what could be a crippling trend of declining demand

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That marks the start of what could be a crippling trend of declining demand: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

U.S. oil supplies rise sharply, and trade-war ‘angst’ may be to blame for a drop in demand

“If that drop in demand is being fueled by tariff worries and trade-war angst … then that marks the start of what could be a crippling trend of declining demand that would, barring supply-side surprises, spark a selloff in oil,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. That could see U.S. benchmark prices begin to sell off toward the downside target of between $57 and $58 a barrel, he said. May West Texas Intermediate crude was up 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $71.41 a barrel, after losing 0.4% Tuesday.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on April 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What worked in the first quarter would continue to work in the second

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What worked in the first quarter would continue to work in the second: Tom Essaye Quoted in Business Insider

Buy the dip or stay defensive? Where to invest as tariffs roil stocks

Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, said what worked in the first quarter would continue to work in the second.

That is, basically everything except for tech, consumer discretionary, communication services, and industrials. Those are the four S&P 500 sectors, out of 11, that are in the red so far this year.

Energy and defensive sectors — which are usually healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples — in particular, should outperform in the months ahead, Essaye said.

“Tariffs are going to continue to cause whiplash, but there are parts of the market that are actually performing pretty well,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full Business Insider article published on April 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tariff Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tariff Week
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Tariffs (How Bad Will It Be?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Is the U.S. Economy Rolling Over?  (We Get the Big Three Economic Reports This Week)

Futures are sharply lower as articles over the weekend implied the looming tariff announcements could be both chaotic and more far-reaching than previously thought.

The WSJ, Politico, New York Times and others warned the administration’s tariff policy 1) Isn’t yet finalized (raising fears of more policy whiplash) and 2) Is more intense than articles implied last week.

Economically, Chinese economic data was good as March manufacturing and services PMIs both beat estimates.

This week is a potentially pivotal one for markets with Wednesday’s looming tariff announcements and key economic data but it starts slowly as there are no notable reports today.  As such, we can expect tariff preview articles to drive trading (and the more articles point to intense tariffs, the lower stocks will go).

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Composite PMI Flash Takeaways – Another Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are back to flat after trading lower overnight on profit taking as traders digest the latest trade war headlines and subsequent rally off the 2025 stock market lows.

Economically, Germany’s Ifo Survey was mostly upbeat as the headline Business Climate Index firmed to 86.7 vs. (E) 87.0 and Business Expectations jumped to 87.7 vs. (E) 86.8. The solid data is helping support gains in EU markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released starting with a few housing market releases: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.5%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), and New Home Sales (E: 679K).

Then after the open, the most important economic report of the day is due out: Consumer Confidence (E: 94.2) and investors will want to see a less-dismal data set in the survey-based release as the February consumer reports weighed heavily on risk assets.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Williams (9:05 a.m. ET) and a few late-season earnings reports from MKC ($0.64 and GME ($0.09), but neither are likely to move markets today.

 

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Easing trade war angst

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Easing trade war angst: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Tesla Stock’s 12% Surge Powers Broader Comeback—As Investors Bet Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Won’t Be So Bad

The rally came thanks to “easing trade war angst” on Wall Street, explained Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, referencing Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal’s weekend reports that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect next week will be far more focused in nature than Trump previously suggested.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on March 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Refined-products demand is beginning to slip

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Refined-products demand is beginning to slip: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch

Oil tallies back-to-back gains as Middle East flare-ups lift risk of supply disruption

In the U.S., analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a Thursday newsletter that the most attention-grabbing development in Wednesday’s EIA petroleum report was a “sharp and sudden” drop of 365,000 barrels per day in gasoline supplied, which is a proxy for consumer demand at the pump.

The decline “suggests the trend in refined-products demand is beginning to slip amid growing uncertainty about the economy in 2025,” the Sevens Report analysts said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on March 20th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

We can hope for is a churn sideways

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We can hope for is a churn sideways: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Trump Wants an Economic ‘Detox.’ What It Means for Stocks.

According to Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye, “until there’s some movement towards stable policy, the best we can hope for is a churn sideways between around 5,700 and 6,000 in the S&P 500.” The index broke below 5650 in morning trading Monday.

Sevens Reports’ Essaye notes that concern about tariffs so far has been worse than their effects. While it makes sense to brace for volatility, “that negative scenario is not a foregone conclusion and actual facts on the economy and earnings [are] hanging on.” he says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview (Does the Growth Scare Get Worse?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Does the Growth Scare Get Worse?)

Futures are sharply lower on a combination of ongoing trade anxiety and disappointing earnings.

On tariffs, there was no news overnight but despite the one-month exemption of autos, trade uncertainty and volatility remains a major headwind on stocks.

On earnings, MRVL results underwhelmed and tech is getting hit as a result (MRVL is down –15% pre-market).

Focus today will, of course, stay on tariffs and trade and there are some reports suggesting agricultural products could also be exempted from tariffs (if so, that’d be another incremental positive but it won’t cure the policy/trade chaos currently impacting markets).

Economically, there are two notable reports today:  Jobless Claims (E: 244K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 3.0%) and better than expected numbers in both will help to support stocks.  Finally, there are several Fed speakers today but with so much policy volatility, Fed speak has been rendered relatively unimportant for the time being (the Fed can’t do anything about tariffs).  Speakers today include: Harker (8:45 a.m. ET), Waller (3:30 p.m. ET) and Bostic (7:00 p.m. ET).

 

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Where Do We Stand With Tariffs (Updated)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs? (Updated 3/5/25)

Futures are higher amid risk-on global money flows after U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be scaled back as soon as today while the Ukraine-U.S. minerals deal is also seeing progress which is easing geopolitical worries.

Economically, the Eurozone Composite PMI met estimates at 50.2 while EU PPI jumped up to 1.8% vs. (E) 1.4% in January, rekindling still simmering inflation worries.

This morning is lining up to be a busy one as there are several noteworthy and potentially market-moving economic reports due to be released beginning with the February ADP Employment Report (E: 162K). Then, shortly after the open, both Factory Orders (E: 1.4%), and the February ISM Services PMI (E: 53.0) will be released.

There are no Fed speakers today, however there is a 4-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and demand for the short-duration securities could shed light on the latest shifts in Fed policy expectations.

Finally, earnings season continues with notable reports due to be released from ANF ($3.48), MRVL ($0.59), and VSCO ($2.30).

Tom Essaye joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation

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Tom Essaye Interview With Financial Sense

This Week: Sticky Inflation and More Tariffs – Tom Essaye on Market Response

Financial expert Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation, the potential impact of new tariffs, and why the Fed may be forced to reconsider rate cuts. With the S&P 500 at record highs, Essaye warns of market vulnerability and highlights where investors should be looking now. Don’t miss this deep dive into inflation, interest rates, and market strategy!

Also, click here to view the full interview with Financial Sense published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.