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Technical Take: Important Levels to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Take: Important Levels to Watch

Futures are mixed despite strong tech earnings and a three-week extension of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire.

Intel (INTC) surged 26% pre-market on blow out earnings and guidance and that’s helping to support futures.

Geopolitically, Israel and Lebanon extended the ceasefire but there was no more information on when the next U.S./Iran face to face talks will occur.

Today there is one economic report, Consumer Sentiment (E: 48.0) and some notable earnings, PG ($1.56), CHTR ($9.97), NSC ($2.51), HCA ($7.19), but geopolitics will remain the primary driver of markets.

To that point, while the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire is a positive, the market still only cares about the Strait of Hormuz reopening and because of that, when the next U.S./Iran talks occur will be the biggest potential catalyst today and the sooner, the better for markets.

 

What Earnings Are Saying

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What Earnings Are Saying: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Earnings Are Saying About Current Economic Growth

Futures are modestly lower following a night of underwhelming earnings results.

INTC (stock down 10% premarket) gave soft guidance while V and TMUS (stocks down –3% each) posted underwhelming results.

Economically, German GfK Consumer Climate missed expectations (-29.7 vs. (E) -24.5) but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% M/M, 3.0% Y/Y) and this number needs to meet or be lower than expectations to help support the stock rally.  If Core PCE prints solidly above expectations look for higher yields and lower stock prices.  The other notable economic number today is Pending Home Sales (E: 1.3%) but that shouldn’t move markets.

On the earnings front, the key report today is AXP ($2.65) and specifically we’ll be watching for is their commentary on consumer spending (the more positive, the better for markets).  Other notable earnings include CL ($0.85) and NSC ($2.90).

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Why Tech Is Driving This Selloff

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Why Tech Is Driving This Selloff: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Tech Is Driving This Selloff
  • S&P 500 Weekly Chart: Not A Setup You Want To See

Futures are moderately higher on solid tech earnings and optimism there won’t be a government shutdown drama.

On earnings, AMZN and INTC both posted solid numbers (up 6% and 7% after hours respectively). And that’s helping the tech sector and broader market bounce.

Politically, Speaker Johnson publicly supported passing a short term spending bill. This possibly avoids another shutdown drama.

Today focus will be on inflation, namely the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.7% y/y) and the five-year University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (E: 3.0%).  Lower than expected numbers will remind markets that inflation is falling and depress Treasury yields, and that should extend today’s early rally.  Conversely, if the inflation data is higher than expected, don’t be shocked if these early gains are erased as yields rise.

Why Tech Is Driving This Selloff

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