What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are slightly lower this morning following a mostly quiet night of news as investors look ahead to several important economic releases in the U.S. today.
Economic data was in-line to slightly better than expected overnight while the Xi-Biden talks, while largely uneventful, did help to modestly improve general market sentiment.
Today, focus will be on economic data early with Retail Sales (E: 1.0%), Import & Export Prices (E: 0.9%, 0.7%), and Industrial Production (E: 0.9%) all due out ahead of the opening bell while the Housing Market Index (E: 80) will be released at the top of the 10:00 a.m. hour (ET).
Additionally, there are several Fed speakers today: Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Harker (2:55 p.m. ET), and Daly (3:30 p.m. ET) and the market will continue to look for patient remarks that suggest the pace of the taper will not be accelerated and rate hikes will not be pulled forward from late 2022.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are mildly lower and Treasury yields are rising with the dollar this morning after hotter than expected Chinese inflation data is prompting some hawkish money flows ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report.
Economically, Chinese CPI rose slightly more than forecast in October (1.5% vs. E: 1.4%) but PPI surged 13.5% vs. (E) 12.0% which was the highest reading since 1995.
Looking into today’s session there are a few potential catalysts to move markets with the October CPI release (E: 0.5%) being the primary focus but Jobless Claims data (E: 267K) will also warrant attention. Both reports are due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.
After those pre-market releases, the schedule is pretty clear with no Fed officials speaking over the course of the day but there is a 30-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and potentially stocks.
Finally, earnings season is already beginning to wind down however DIS ($0.50) will report quarterly results after the closing bell.
Bottom line, focus is on inflation data and if today’s CPI report runs hot, we could see taper expectations, as well as the market’s rate hike outlook, take a hawkish turn which would spur broad market volatility.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures pulled back overnight following the release of the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, which noted stretched asset prices, but markets have since stabilized as new domestic inflation data comes into focus.
Economically, the German ZEW Survey was mixed (Current Conditions missed, Economic Sentiment beat) while the NFIB report was mildly underwhelming however neither report materially moved markets in pre-market trade.
Looking into today’s session, earnings season continues with a lot of smaller cap companies reporting however focus this morning will be on economic data with the October PPI report due before the bell (E: 0.6% M/M, 8.6% Y/Y).
Then the Fed speaker circuit also remains active today with Bullard (7:50 a.m. ET), Powell (9:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (1:30 p.m. ET) all speaking over the course of the session and the market will be looking for further confirmation that rate hikes will not commence before late 2022 otherwise we could see a hawkish reaction from markets.
Finally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move bonds and subsequently trigger a reaction from stocks.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed following a quiet weekend outside of the passage of the physical infrastructure bill.
On Friday the House passed the physical infrastructure bill but it’s only $550 billion of new spending over 10 years, and that’s not going to have a big impact on the economy.
The broader $1.75 trillion spending bill remains under debate as Democrat infighting continues, but a deal is expected by year-end.
Today there are no economic reports, but there are numerous Fed speakers and the market will be looking for insight into the possibility of an accelerated taper beyond December. Powell (10:30 a.m.) is the headliner today but he’s only making opening remarks and shouldn’t offer any insights on policy. Vice Chair Clarida (9:00 a.m.) will speak on policy, so his interview is probably the most important one to watch today. Other Fed speakers include Montgomery (10:00 a.m.), Harker (12:00 p.m.) and Evans (1:50 p.m.) but they shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower following disappointing AAPL and AMZN earnings combined with hotter than expected headline inflation from Europe.
On earnings, AAPL and AMZN both underwhelmed investors and those stocks fell 3% and 5% after hours and the sheer weight of those names in the S&P 500 is weighing on the entire index.
On inflation, EU HICP rose to 4.1% vs. (E) 3.7%, a nearly 20-year high.
Focus today will be on inflation, as we get the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge via the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2%, 3.7%) and the Employment Cost Index (E: 0.9%). Both numbers will be high, but markets will want to see hints of a plateau in inflation. We also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 71.4) and the inflation expectations component will also be closely monitored.
On the earnings front, focus will be on the following results: XOM ($1.57), CVX ($2.21), CL ($0.79).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a quiet weekend and ahead of the most important week of earnings season.
Regarding Fed tapering, Powell’s comments on Friday were taken as slightly hawkish, but the consensus outlook remains a November taper at $15 bln/month.
There was no notable news/progress from Washington over the weekend on the debt ceiling/spending bill.
Today there are no notable economic reports or Fed speakers (they’re entering the “quiet period” ahead of next week’s meeting). So, focus will be on any updates from Washington on whether or not we get tax hikes and on earnings, although the vast majority of the biggest companies report later in the week. Some reports to watch today include FB ($3.20), LOGI ($1.14), OTIS ($0.73), and KMB ($1.66).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower as markets digest the recent bounce following disappointing earnings overnight.
Earnings overnight were negative on balance as IBM missed on revenues while TSLA, LVS, and PPG also posted disappointing results and saw selling afterhours.
Today focus will be on economic data and earnings. On the data front, the key reports will be Jobless Claims (E: 300K), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 25.0), and Existing Home Sales (E: 6.030M), and markets will want to see stability in the data (so not too hot and not too cold). We also get two Fed speakers, Waller (9:00 a.m. ET) and Williams (9:00 p.m. ET).
On the earnings front, results have become more mixed lately so markets will continue to focus closely on earnings. Some reports we’re watching today include: T ($0.78), AAL (-$1.04), FCX ($0.78), LUV (-$0.27), SNAP ($0.08), INTC ($1.11) and WHR ($6.16). As has been the case, strong margins amid rising costs will be the key metric in the results.
The issues that caused the pullback have quieted over the past…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are slightly higher this morning while global shares were mixed overnight ahead of fresh U.S. inflation data and the unofficial start to the Q3 earnings season.
Economically, German CPI met expectations while Eurozone Industrial Production beat estimates, which is helping ease recent stagflation concerns this morning.
Looking into today’s session, focus will be on inflation data with the September CPI report due at 8:30 a.m. ET (E: 0.3%, 5.3%) as well as the start of Q3 earnings season with JPM ($3.00) and DAL ($0.15) reporting results before the open.
Then in the afternoon, we will get the FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) and multiple Fed speakers: Brainard (3:30 p.m. ET), Bowman (8:00 p.m. ET).
Finally, there is a 30-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact yields and ultimately move equity markets (especially if yields make new highs).