Posts

FOMO Kicks In as More Stocks Join the Rally | Tom Essaye Sees Room to Run

/in , /by

Improving market breadth may fuel the next leg higher, says Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye

More Stocks Join the Surge, Signaling More Upside Ahead

The U.S. stock market is showing signs of broadening strength as more sectors join the rally that began with tech. According to Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, that’s a signal there may still be more upside ahead—as long as conditions remain stable.

“The market still has plenty of room to rise,”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

In a recent interview with Wallstreet Insight, Essaye explained that this surge in market breadth—the number of individual stocks participating in the rally—is being driven by investor behavior:

“Investors who missed the historic rally in tech are now looking for opportunities in other sectors. It’s a classic case of FOMO trading.”

As lagging sectors catch up, the foundation of the rally strengthens. If this rotation continues, it could reduce concentration risk and extend the bull run beyond tech leaders.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on July 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is This Rally Sustainable?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This Rally Sustainable? It Depends on What You Think About Growth.
  • Chart – The Latest Chicago PMI Points to a Loss of Economic Momentum

Futures are lower, led by TSLA shares and big tech after the latest social-media rift between President Trump and Elon Musk offsets mostly upbeat economic data from overnight while the strong Q2’25 gains are digested.

Economically, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.3 to 50.4 vs. (E) 49.0 in June while the EU’s final manufacturing PMI edged up from 49.4 to 49.5 vs. (E) 49.4. On the inflation front, the Eurozone HICP Flash (CPI equivalent) rose 0.1% to 2.0% as expected.

Looking into today’s session, there are three noteworthy economic reports to watch: The ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.8), Construction Spending (E: 0.1%), and May JOLTS (E: 7.3 million). Investors will be looking for further evidence of resilience in growth metrics amid tame inflation pressures in order to short up rally-supporting soft landing hopes.

Finally, Fed Chair Powell will speak as part of a panel at an ECB Economic Forum in Portugal at 9:30 a.m. ET and any while he is unlikely to stray from the narrative that the FOMC is in “wait-and-see” mode, any insight on the future policy path could move markets today.

 

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today

Your quarterly letter could be done today with virtually zero work from you!

Our Q2 ’25 Quarterly Letter will be released today and some advisors will have it ready to send to clients almost immediately thereafter!

We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis
  • Improve client communications and strengthen relationships.

And it takes virtually no work from you and is zero risk because we offer a full refund if the letter doesn’t pass compliance.

You can view our Q1 ’25 Quarterly Letter here. To learn more about the product (including price), please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Why Did the S&P 500 Hit A New High? (And Is It Sustainable?)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did the S&P 500 Hit A New High?  (And Is It Sustainable?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does the Big, Beautiful Bill Pass and Further Support Growth?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  The Big Three Reports This Week:  Jobs Report (Thurs), ISM Manufacturing & Services PMIs

Futures are modestly higher on further progress on passing the “Big, Beautiful Bill” (which would extend and increase ta cuts, further supporting economic growth).

The “Big Beautiful Bill” passed a key procedural vote over the weekend and passage out of the Senate is expected later today (and it could be law by the end of the week).

Economically, the June Chinese manufacturing and service PMIs were slightly better than expected.

Today there is one economic report (Chicago PMI (E: 42.7)) and two Fed speakers, Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will remain on Washington and if passage of the Big, Beautiful Bill becomes even more likely (meaning it passes the Senate and there’s no major pushback from House members) that should further add to the upward momentum in the market.

Tech Leads the Rally, But Breadth Signals Are Flashing | Sevens Report Weighs In

/in , /by

Tom Essaye says the rally looks healthy—but it’s not without warning signs

Tech stocks are powering this record-setting rally on Wall Street – but how long can it last?

RECORD HIGHS GET SUPPORT FROM NYSE BREADTH, BUT 200-DAY INDICATORS TELL A DIFFERENT STORY

Wall Street’s rally to new highs continues to be led by tech stocks, but according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, the strength may be broader than it looks—though not without its risks.

“The recent advance is broad-based… historically healthy and likely sustainable.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye pointed to new highs in the NYSE Advance/Decline (A/D) line, a key signal that the rally has expanded beyond just megacap names.

But there’s a catch: only about 50% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to Sevens Report data—well below May’s 55% high.

“The divergence… is a source of concern,” Essaye wrote. “Some areas show real strength, while others may just be staging bear-market rallies.”

For bulls, Essaye says confirmation would come from more S&P names clearing their 200-DMAs—surpassing the May threshold of 55% would help validate the rally’s staying power.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on June 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Mixed Messages from Market Breadth

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Mixed Messages from Market Breadth

Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum and continued optimism on trade/tariffs.

The U.S. and China officially signed the recently negotiated trade agreement and Commerce Secretary Lutnick teased 10 more trade deals that could be announced soon.

Economically, Euro Zone Economic Sentiment was slightly weaker than expected (94.5 vs. (E) 95.0).

Today focus will turn to inflation via the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y).  Tame inflation readings have underwritten this slightly dovish shift in rate cut expectations, so this number needs to be in-line or weaker than expected to keep those more dovish expectations intact (and support this week’s rally).

In addition to the data, there are two Fed speakers, Williams (7:30 a.m. ET) and Hammack (9:15 a.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Sevens Report Q2 ’25 Quarterly Letter Coming This Tuesday.

The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter will be released this coming Tuesday (July 1st) and will give subscribers a professional, turn-key quarterly letter ready to send to their clients that explain the market volatility in Q2, provide needed long-term context and strengthens client relationships – all with zero effort on their part.

The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter has passed compliance at some of the biggest firms on the Street and we provide a full refund if the quarterly letter is rejected by compliance, so you literally risk nothing to try it and get the benefits of value-add client communication! 

We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis and
  • Strengthen client relationships all with little to no work from you!

You can view our Q1 ’25 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

New ETFs for Your Watchlist (June Update)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist – June Update
  • Powell Testimony Takeaways
  • Chart – Consumer Confidence Tumbles (Again)

Futures are flat as investors digest reports that the U.S. strikes on Iran nuclear facilities resulted in limited damage while focus remains on Powell’s semi-annual testimony.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight and financial news wires were mostly quiet since yesterday’s close.

Today, there is one economic report to watch with New Home Sales (E: 694K) due out just after the bell. Housing data has been trending weaker but that has bolstered dovish money flows so a “hot” print could spark a hawkish reaction and weigh on stocks.

Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony continues today at 10:00 a.m. ET which will be a primary focus for markets as investors look for clues as to when the FOMC will resume cutting interest rates.

Moving into the afternoon, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Demand has been strong in recent weeks so a weak outcome that sends rates higher is a hawkish risk to watch for that would weigh on risk assets.

Finally, there are a few more late-season earnings reports to watch including PAYX ($1.18), GIS ($0.71), MU ($1.61), and JEF ($0.43).

 

Sevens Report Q2 ’25 Quarterly Letter Coming Next Tuesday

The first half of 2025 has been historically volatile, with tariffs, the Iran/Israel war, no Fed rate cuts and a 14% drop in the S&P 500 in April!

This is the type of environment where investors are anxious and want to hear from their advisor and a quarterly letter is the perfect tool to help demonstrate your market knowledge and differentiate yourself from the competition.

We will be releasing the Q2 2025 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter to subscribers next Tuesday, July 1. 

The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter is a turnkey client communications solution. We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter),
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis, and
  • Strengthen client relationships all with little-to-no work from you.

You can view our Q1 ’25 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

What Would Make Markets Care About the Israel-Iran Conflict?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Would Make Markets Care About the Israel-Iran Conflict?
  • June Flash PMI Takeaways

U.S. equity futures are tracking global shares higher after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, greatly reducing geopolitical worries.

Economically, the Business Expectations component of the German Ifo Survey rose to 90.7 vs. (E) 89.8 in June which is adding to optimism that a recession will be avoided in most developed nations in 2025.

Looking into today’s session, there are multiple economic reports due to be released including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.0%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 99.0), and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -7.0).

There are also multiple Fed speakers on the calendar to watch with Hammack (9:15 & 10:15 a.m. ET), Powell (10:00 a.m. ET), Williams (12:30 p.m. ET),  and Collins (2:05 p.m. ET) all due to deliver remarks today.

Finally, some noteworthy earnings releases to keep an eye on include CCL ($0.24), SNX ($2.56), FDX ($5.93), and BB ($0.00).

Bottom line, the two most important catalysts to watch today will be the Consumer Confidence release with investors looking for a healthy/better than expected headline and easing inflation expectations, and Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Capitol Hill as investors gauge the prospects for a July rate cut (the more dovish expectations are, the better for stocks).

Two Analogies to Explain Tariffs to Clients

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Analogies to Explain Tariffs to Clients
  • Weekly Market Preview:  How Does Iran Respond? (And Does That Increase Worries About the Conflict Spreading?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  More Important Growth Data This Week

Futures are slightly higher despite an increase in geopolitical tensions over the weekend.

The U.S. attacked and destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. But, despite ominous headlines, we are not seeing an increase in oil prices or geopolitical tensions in the markets as fears of the conflict spreading remain low.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics and specifically how Iran responds to the direct U.S. attack.  Despite the headlines about this event, from a market standpoint, unless investors fear the conflict will spread and engulf the entire region and dramatically reduce oil supplies, then rising geopolitical tensions won’t be a material negative on this market.

Economically, there are two notable reports today: Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.1) and the Flash Services PMI (E: 52.9) and markets will want to see stability in both to push back on slowdown fears. On the Fed front, there are multiple speakers today including Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:10 p.m. ET), Kugler & Williams (2:30 p.m. ET). But, with Powell’s testimony before Congress starting tomorrow, these speakers shouldn’t move markets.

The Markets focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

/in , /by

Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Gulfnews.com

Oil rises, US futures drop on Trump Tehran warning: Markets wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Technical Preview

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Technical Preview
  • Retail Sales Data Takeaways – Signs of Weakness in Consumer Spending

Futures are higher as investors continue to monitor the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and digest largely as expected European inflation data ahead of the Fed.

Economically, Eurozone HICP fell to 1.9% from 2.2%, as expected, while UK CPI edged down to 3.4% vs. (E) 3.5% which is supporting a bid in the global bond market with yields falling moderately in premarket trade.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 244K) which come a day early, and Housing Starts and Permits (E: 1.360M, 1.430M). Another sharp rise in jobless claims could bolster concerns about the health of the labor market but a big reaction from markets is unlikely given the looming Fed decision.

Speaking of which, the primary focus of today’s session will be the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) as investors look for clarity on the future path of monetary policy.

There are two late season earnings releases to watch as well: ACB ($0.11) and KFY  ($1.25) but with the Fed in focus, neither should materially move markets today.