On a similar note, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said that “from a technical perspective, there are signs that a potential bottom for the dollar has been formed.” Click here to ad the full article.
The natural-gas market is reaching a historically pivotal phase of the year, with the price swings typically occurring in the summer and winter months, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Natural gas is the largest source of electricity in the U.S., at roughly 40%, so when temperatures heat up in the summertime, demand for power to run air conditioning units rises in lockstep. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P 500 futures are solidly higher while Nasdaq futures surge 2% thanks to blow out NVDA earnings.
NVDA beat on revenue and EPS and raised guidance on strong AI chip demand, and the stock surged more than 20% after hours.
Fitch put the U.S. on “credit watch negative” as the potential “X” date for the debt ceiling is less than a week away.
Today focus will be on any debt ceiling progress (although none is expected with the looming holiday weekend) and on economic data, and the most important report is Jobless Claims (E: 248K) and markets will want to see that number flat or just slightly higher (another big jump would increase hard landing worries).
Other data today includes Revised Q1 GDP (E: 1.1%) and Pending Home Sales (E: 1.1%), but neither number should move markets. On the Fed, we have two speakers today, Barkin (9:50 a.m. ET) and Collins (10:30 a.m. ET), but neither should move markets.
The natural-gas market is reaching a historically pivotal phase of the year, with the price swings typically occurring in the summer and winter months, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Equity futures are lower with global markets this morning as there has been no further progress in debt ceiling negotiations while data overnight pointed to stagflation.
Economically, U.K. CPI was 8.7% vs. (E) 8.3% y/y while the German Ifo Survey was weak across the board with Business Expectations notably falling to 88.6 vs. (E) 91.7. And sticky high inflation and fading growth prospects are a very negative scenario for global risk assets.
There are no market moving economic reports on the calendar for today which will leave traders primarily focused on the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations.
There is one Fed speaker: Waller at 12:10 p.m. ET and the May FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET which could shed some light on the Fed’s expected “pause.” Any indication that hikes may continue this summer would trigger volatility as current market odds of a June hike are less than 1 in 3.
Finally, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and have an influence on equity market trading in the afternoon.
The U.S. dollar, which rallied to a two-month high last week, is demonstrating a bullish signal from a technical perspective and has the potential to trend up in the coming months. The greenback’s strength will weigh on equities, starting by the beginning of June, noted Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed despite a lack of progress on the debt ceiling and an increase in trade tensions between the U.S. and China over the weekend.
There was no progress on the debt ceiling over the weekend although Biden and McCarthy will meet again today to resume negotiations.
China banned the use of Micron (MU) chips in what is yet another escalation in U.S./China trade tensions.
Today focus will be on the debt ceiling and markets will want to hear positive and optimistic commentary from Biden and McCarthy, as the potential “X” date of June 1st is now less than 10 days away.
There are also multiple Fed speakers today, including Bullard (8:30 a.m. ET), Logan (9:00 a.m. ET), Barking & Bostic (10:50 a.m. ET) and Daly (11:05 a.m. ET), but given Powell on Friday reiterated the Fed has likely paused, their comments shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as markets digest Thursday’s extension of the rally and as markets await comments from Fed Chair Powell later this morning.
Economically, the only notable numbers were Japanese CPI (met expectations at 3.5%) and German PPI (slightly hot at 4.1% vs. (E) 4.0%) but neither number changed the outlook for global inflation and, as such, aren’t moving markets.
Today there are no notable economic reports, but there are several important Fed speakers including Chair Powell (11:00 a.m. ET). So far this week, markets have looked past hawkish commentary from regional Fed Presidents but if Powell hints that the Fed may hike rates in June, we could see some of this week’s rally given back. Other Fed speakers today include Williams (8:45 a.m. ET) and Bowman (9:00 a.m. ET).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher mostly on momentum from Wednesday’s rally and despite more disappointing earnings, this time from Cisco (CSCO).
CSCO orders underwhelmed and that’s weighing on the stock (down 4% after hours) and limiting gains in futures.
There was no new news on the debt ceiling but optimism remains high and a deal is expected before the “X” date.
Focus today will be on economic data, because beyond any short-term debt ceiling drama (or resolution) the bigger issue for this market remains hard vs. soft landing. Key reports today include (in order of importance): Jobless Claims (E: 255K), Philly Fed (E: -20.0) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.295M). As has been the case, stability remains the key for stocks to extend the rally.
We also have two Fed speakers, Jefferson (9:05 a.m. ET) and Logan (10:00 a.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are rebounding modestly from yesterday’s declines this morning as traders await more clarity on the debt ceiling negotiations (1-Month yield is down 2 bp to 5.56%) and digest in-line European inflation data.
Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 7.0% y/y with the Narrow Core reading falling 0.1% to 5.6%, also as expected but still well above target.
There is just one economic report this morning: Housing Starts & Permits (E: 1.405M, 1.430M) and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
Retailer earnings continue this morning with TGT ($1.74) reporting ahead of the bell and investors will be looking for more signs of “soft landing” spending trends as we saw with HD yesterday.
As far as other potential catalysts go, there is a 20-Yr. Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET today and any big move in yields could impact stocks (too weak would indicate inflation worries, too strong would underscore growing debt ceiling fears).