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Another Reason Treasury Yields Are Rising

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Another Reason Treasury Yields Are Rising

Futures are modestly lower on more negative real estate news from China while Japanese inflation was hotter than expected.

Chinese real estate firm Evergrande filed for bankruptcy overnight, increasing concerns about the Chinese property market specifically and economy more broadly.

Economically, Japanese CPI was in-line (up 3.3% y/y) but services inflation rose to 2%, a 30 year high, and that’s increasing expectations the BOJ may get more hawkish (and that would put more upward pressure on global bond yields, which would increase the headwind on stocks).

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will remain on Treasury yields, and the market needs stability in yields for stocks to bounce back.  A sudden drop in yields on growth concerns (which is what we’re seeing this morning) or a sharp rally in yields (on inflation concerns) will only further pressure stocks, so the sooner yields can “calm down” and trade little changed, the better for stocks.

Pullback or Something More?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Pullback or Something More?
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly higher on better than expected CSCO earnings amidst an otherwise quiet night.

Earnings this week have been solid and that continued with CSCO results overnight (stock up about 3% pre-market) and that’s driving the bounce in futures.

Earlier this week HD, TGT and TJX all posted solid results and the earnings reinforced the $240 2024 S&P 500 earnings expectation (which helps with market valuation).

Today focus will be on economic data and the key reports are:  Jobless Claims (E: 240K), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index  (E: -10) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.4%).

Markets need Goldilocks economic data to stop rising Treasury yields while at the same time further downplaying hard landing worries.  If the data is “Too Hot” yields will rise and stocks will likely fall, while conversely, a sudden drop in activity will increase worries about a hard landing (and likely pressure stocks).  Numbers close to expectations are what investors need to help support stocks.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 15th, 2023

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Stocks Could Be Sandbagged by Rising Treasury Yields

“That’s why rising Treasury yields are a problem for stocks, because investors will rotate out of riskier equities and into less-risky bonds because the additional return in stocks isn’t worth the volatility,” argues Essaye, who believes that while the current environment makes the historical 4% risk premium unlikely, a “fair” number for 2023 is “definitely higher than 1%!”

Click here to read the full article.

It’s Not How High Rates Go Anymore, It’s How Long They Stay There

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • It’s Not How High That Matters Anymore, It’s How Long
  • Retail Sales & Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways (Very Mixed Reports)
  • Chart – S&P 500 Violates 50 Day Moving Average for the First Time Since March

Stock futures are little changed this morning as new stimulus efforts by China help offset more negative global economic data and a hawkish leaning RBNZ meeting decision.

Chinese Home Prices fell -0.1% vs. (E) 0.0% prompting a cash injection and stronger currency fix by the PBOC which helped stabilize global risk assets overnight given the recent turmoil in the world’s second largest economy.

In Europe, U.K. Core CPI held steady at 6.9% vs. (E) 6.8% in July solidifying peak rate expectations of 6.0%, however bond yields are retreating modestly from the week’s highs which is helping stocks continue to stabilize today.

Looking into today’s session, we will get two economic reports this morning: Housing Starts (E: 1.455 million), Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) before focus will turn to the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Bottom line, the market wants to see more “Goldilocks” data consistent with a soft economic landing and no evidence in the Fed minutes that suggests a more hawkish policy path than is currently expected (rate cuts beginning H1’24). Otherwise, volatility is likely to remain elevated with equities under pressure.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MaketWatch on August 14th, 2023

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China-focused ETFs drop as country’s property woes highlight ‘recession risks in China are real’

Concerns about China’s economy increased Monday after Country Garden Holdings Co. suspended trading in some offshore bonds, “reminding investors of Chinese property market volatility from years ago and reinforcing that recession risks in China are real,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said in a note. He also cited “downbeat trade data out of China” last week, with imports and exports both missing estimates.

Click here to read the full article.

Why Rising Treasury Yields Are a Headwind on Stocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is Country Garden and Why Does It Matter?
  • Equity Risk Premium: Why Rising Bond Yields Are a Headwind on Stocks
  • Chart – Growth Stocks Approach Key 2023 Support

U.S. equity futures are tracking global markets lower this morning amid more negative news flow out of China while Treasury yields continue to test to cycle highs with the 10-Year Note yield above 4.20%.

Multiple Chinese economic reports badly missed estimates overnight with Retail Sales notably rising just 2.5% vs. (E) 4.2% in July.

The bad data and renewed concerns about the property market prompted surprise rate cuts by the PBOC but the policy action was seen as underwhelming by investors and markets traded with a decisive risk-off tone overnight.

Looking into today’s session, the headlines out of China will continue to influence money flows, however there are several key U.S. economic reports to watch this morning including: Retail Sales (E: 0.4%), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -0.4), Import & Export Price (E: 0.2%, 0.1%), and the Housing Market Index (E: 56).

Markets continue to look for “Goldilocks” dynamics in the data, consistent with easing growth, a loosening labor market, and continued drop in inflation. Anything that contradicts those trends could further risk assets including stocks today.

There is also one Fed speaker today: Kashkari (11:00 a.m. ET) but it is doubtful he wavers from the Fed’s narrative and is unlikely to move markets.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 11th, 2023

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Stocks Eked Out a Very Small Gain, Snapped Their Losing Streak

“The market already assumes continued disinflation, so the fact that inflation declined modestly in July just met existing (and already priced in) expectations,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “And, much of the gains in the morning were technical, on a rebound from Wednesday’s drop and an anticipation of the CPI report. But, when it failed to provide a new, positive catalyst, we saw trade exit positions as this market needs something new and positive to rally, not just confirmation of what we already assume and have priced in.”

Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 9th, 2023

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Stocks Pause Ahead of Inflation Data

“The Italian government clarified that a windfall tax on bank profits would be capped, sparking a relief rally in European financials and general risk-on trade in global markets,” Tom Essaye writes. “There are no notable economic reports and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak today which is setting the session up to be fairly quiet as traders await tomorrow’s CPI release.” Click here to read the full article.

What Can Push Stocks Higher from Here?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Can Push Stocks Higher from Here? (Four Candidates)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do the Three Pillars of the Rally Get Further Reinforced?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Focus on Growth Data this Week (Not Inflation).

Futures are drifting modestly higher following a quiet weekend of news, as markets digest the uptick in volatility so far in August.

Concerns about the Chinese economy grew this morning after real estate firm Country Garden suspended trading in select offshore bonds, reminding investors of Chinese property market volatility from years ago and reinforcing that recession risks in China are real.

There was no notable economic data overnight.

Today there are no notable economic reports so focus will remain on Treasury yields ahead of important economic data and earnings later this week. Generally speaking, the more calm the movement in yields (so no big rallies and no big declines) the better for stocks.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard Update

Futures are little changed as markets digest Thursday’s failed rally amidst more conflicting economic data.

Chinese money supply growth missed estimates and again underscored existing recession risks and that modestly weighed on sentiment.

UK economic data was better than expected, however, with  GDP (0.2% vs. (E) 0.0%) and manufacturing (2.4% vs. (E) 0.2%) both beating estimates.

Today focus will remain on inflation, as we get headline PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 0.7% y/y) and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.3% y/y) along with the University of Michigan inflation readings within Consumer Sentiment (E: 71.3).  As CPI showed, an in-line inflation number that shows on going and modest disinflation won’t spark a rally, as that’s already priced in, but it will help support stocks around current levels.  A hotter than expected number, however, will likely spark another market decline.