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Not All Markets Are Signaling an “All-Clear” Yet

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Aren’t Treasuries or Oil Confirming The Rally in Stocks?
  • Return Table – Not All Markets Are Signaling an “All-Clear” Yet…
  • Producer Price Index Takeaways – Cooler Than Feared

Futures are slightly lower on mixed geopolitical headlines since yesterday’s close.

Overnight, Iran threatened to halt trade through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea if the U.S. Naval blockade of Hormuz continued, however the AP reported progress in ceasefire talks with a deal potential imminent.

Today, there are several noteworthy economic reports to watch in the U.S. including the Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -2.0), Import & Export Prices (E: 2.1% m/m, 1.7% m/m), the latest Housing Market Index release (E: 37).

Additionally, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. and two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barr (8:30 a.m. ET) and Bowman (1:45 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to get underway with notable companies reporting today including ASML ($7.72), BAC ($1.00), MS ($3.06), PGR ($4.77), PNC ($4.12), and JBHT ($1.45).

 

What the Failed Peace Talks Mean for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Failed Peace Talks Mean for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Dual Focus This Week on Iran but Also Key Bank Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Are Stagflation Risks Rising?

Futures are moderately lower as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to produce a lasting ceasefire.

The ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran yielded no material progress and, in response, President Trump ordered a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is boosting oil prices (up 8%) and weighing on futures.

Economically,  there were no notable reports over the weekend.

Today focus will stay on the Strait of Hormuz and specifically if the partial blockade goes into effect and, if so, whether that reignites direct conflict (if so, that would be an incremental negative).

Outside of geopolitics, this is an important week for earnings as we get major banks reporting this week (among other notable companies) and that starts today via GS ($16.34), FAST ($0.30) and FBK ($1.13) results.  In this environment, the stronger the earnings and guidance, the better for stocks.

Finally, there is one economic report today, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.07 million), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

Key Technical Signals and Correction Territory

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Key Technical Signals and Correction Territory
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Iran – Do We See De-escalation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Any Signs Higher Oil Is Impacting Growth?

Futures have reversed this morning’s losses and are sharply higher after President Trump announced a pause in strikes on energy infrastructure and cited “productive” talks with Iran.

This comes after President Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened to ship traffic (he implied a Monday night deadline).

Oil prices fell sharply in response to the U.S-Iran update from the President this morning.

Today focus will remain on the U.S./Iran war and we can continue to expect stocks to trade inversely to the price of oil. So, any signs of de-escalation (including social media posts or actual events) should make oil drop and stocks rebound while any signs of further escalation (again, including social media posts or actual events) will put more pressure on stocks.

Outside of geopolitics, there is one economic report today, Construction Spending (E: 0.1%), but that shouldn’t move markets.