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Why A Hawkish Fed Isn’t Necessarily Bad for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why A Hawkish Fed Isn’t Necessarily Bad for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is Economic Growth Stable? (It Needs to Be)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The “Big Three” Monthly Reports This Week (including the Jobs Report)

Futures are marginally lower after the U.S. and Iran traded attacks for the first time in weeks.

The U.S. and Iran traded strikes over the weekend in the first military exchange in weeks and oil prices are 3% higher in response, although markets still do not expect material escalation (which is why futures aren’t down more).

Economically, Chinese data was mixed as the manufacturing PMI beat estimates (49.8 vs. (E) 49.5) while non-manufacturing was slightly weak (49 vs. (E) 49.4).

Today there are no notable economic reports or Fed speak so focus will remain on geopolitics.  Markets still strongly assume there won’t be any material military escalation between Iran and the U.S. but if the headlines turn negative on that front, it’ll introduce a new headwind on the market.

 

Hawkish central-bank policy is bad for the oil market

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Hawkish central-bank policy is bad for the oil market: Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Co-Editor, Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Oil settles lower after rise in U.S. CPI and OPEC’s unchanged demand forecast

The initial market reaction to the consumer-price index release was a “hawkish one which saw oil prices decline to session lows,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

“Hawkish central-bank policy is bad for the oil market, because high interest rates over time act as a steady headwind on global growth and ultimately, that weighs on consumer-demand expectations,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published by MSN on March 13th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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