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Optimism regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas had been building

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Optimism regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas had been building: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil pares gains as Hamas reportedly accepts cease-fire plan, Israel warns of Rafah invasion

“Optimism regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas had been building over the last week or so, and that was reflected in last week’s steep drop in oil futures price,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

The reason the oil market didn’t see more of a selloff Monday in the wake of the news that Hamas has accepted the cease-fire proposal is that “it was largely already priced in,” said Richey.

Also, “despite the progress in negotiations, military action is continuing on with reports of 50 Israeli air strikes in Rafah today alone -and that is keeping speculative shorts on their toes as we start the new week,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on May 6th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

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The Israel-Hamas Conflict in the Middle East

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The Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East: Tyler Richey Quoted in MorningStar

Oil prices inch higher after losing much of their war premium during a 3-session decline

“The Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East remains top of mind and the threat to the regions oil resources and infrastructure continue to warrant a fear bid in the oil market,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

However, “the lack of material escalation since the initial attacks by Hamas has seen some of that fear bid unwind as the conflict has been largely contained up to this point,” he said.

All of that “suggests an invasion is still imminent — just not right at this moment,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full MorningStar article published on October 25th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to Rally

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Rising Oil Prices Will Continue to Act as a Headwind

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Rising Oil Prices Will Continue to Act as a Headwind: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Lower Amid Rising Tensions in the Middle East

“Looking into today’s session, there will remain considerable focus on the conflict between Israel and Hamas amid Biden’s visit to the region and if no progress is made towards a ceasefire, rising oil prices will continue to act as a headwind on risk assets,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

President Joe Biden arrived in Tel Aviv to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. President Biden’s trip to Israel followed the explosion of a hospital in Gaza.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on October 18th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Rising oil prices

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Yields Are Rising – Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

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Yields Are Rising: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Gain as Concerns About Conflict in Middle East Ease

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that reports President Joe Biden is weighing a visit to Israel have sent stocks higher and oil prices lower. WTI crude oil futures were down 0.7%, to $86.93 a barrel.

“Yields are higher but that’s likely by nervous investors reversing ‘fear based’ positions. That came last week as a result of the Israel/Hamas conflict,” Essaye wrote. “Point being, yields are rising as investors get more comfortable with the geo-political environment.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on October 16th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Yields Are Rising

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How to Explain the Israel-Hamas Conflict to Clients

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How to Explain the Israel-Hamas Conflict to Clients: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Explain the Israel-Hamas Conflict to Clients (How It Matters to Markets)
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index Takeaways (More Goldilocks Data)

Stock futures are modestly lower this morning as Treasury yields are rising back towards cycle highs. This is on news that President Biden will travel to Israel tomorrow to try and ease tensions in the region.

Economic data was largely shrugged off overnight. There were more signs of disinflation as wage pressures eased in the latest U.K. Labour Report. While New Zealand’s latest CPI report undershot estimates at 5.6% vs. (E) 5.9% year-over-year.

Today is lining up to be a busy session news-wise as we get several economic reports in the U.S. including: Retail Sales (E: 0.3%), Industrial Production (E: 0.0%), Business Inventories (E: 0.3%), and the Housing Market Index (E: 45). Investors will want to see more Goldilocks data supporting both peak-Fed-hawkishness and prospects for a soft economic landing in order for stocks to continue to rally.

There are also multiple Fed speakers to watch: Williams, Bowman, Barkin, and Kashkari. Markets will be looking for more commentary that suggests the FOMC is done with rate hikes for the cycle.

Finally, earnings season continues to ramp up with: BAC ($0.80), GS ($5.32), JNJ ($2.52), and LMT ($6.66) reporting results before the bell. While UAL ($3.40) and JBHT ($1.87) will report after the close. A drop-off in earnings is not priced into markets at these levels so investors will be looking for positive quarterly results and upbeat guidance.

How to Explain the Israel-Hamas Conflict to Clients

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here. 

Market Multiple Levels Chart (October Edition)

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Market Multiple Levels Chart (October Edition): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels Chart (October Edition)

Futures are modestly lower following mixed economic data and as the Israel and Hamas war appeared set to escalate.

Economically, E.U. Industrial Production beat while Chinese CPI was flat y/y, increasing deflation concerns.

Israel warned more than one million residents to evacuate southern Gaza in the next 24 hours as it readies for a potential invasion and oil is rallying 3% as a result.

Earnings season starts today and there are several large banks that are reporting results.  In addition to the earnings, markets will want to hear positive commentary on consumer spending on the earnings calls.  Important reports today include:  JPM ($3.89), UNH ($ 6.33), BLK ($8.52), C ($1.26), WFC ($1.25).

Economically, the only notable report today is Consumer Sentiment (E: 67.5) and it would take a spike in inflation expectations for that to move markets.

Market Multiple Table - October Edition

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Rising Geopolitical Tensions

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Rising Geopolitical Tensions: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

Dow, S&P 500 flip positive to start week after Hamas attacks Israel

The attack by Hamas on Israel raised fears of a broader conflict, sending crude prices jumping. And spurring haven-related support for gold, the dollar and U.S. Treasury futures. The cash Treasury market is closed for the Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day holiday.

“The human tragedy and geopolitical implications aside, from a market standpoint the attack matters because rising geopolitical tensions mean higher oil prices and the higher oil goes, the stronger the additional headwind on stocks and bonds,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note.

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on October 9th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.