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Tariff Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tariff Preview:  Good, Bad & Ugly

Futures are modestly lower following a night of mixed economic data and a somewhat negative trade headline.

The WSJ published a trade article that implied the chances of a near term U.S./China deal were declining, but also said a decision on the 200 bln in new tariffs was weeks away.

Economic data was mixed as German Industrial Production missed estimates (-1.1% vs. (E) 0.3%) while Japanese Household Spending beat (0.1% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Today focus will be on the jobs report, and the expectations are: Jobs (E: 195K), Unemployment (E: 3.8%) and Wages (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.8% y/y).  As has been the case for the last few jobs report, as long as we don’t have “3’s” across the board (300k job adds, 3% unemployment and 3.0% yoy wage gains) this report shouldn’t be too much of a headwind on stocks.

Finally, in addition to the jobs report we also have two Fed speakers, Rosengren (8:30 a.m. ET) and Mester (9:00 a.m. ET), but neither should move markets.

To read the full report Go Here

Gasoline and heating-oil futures – Tyler Richey on Market Watch, September 6, 2018

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“Gasoline and heating-oil futures are still in the driver seat of the energy markets, after early week rallies due to [Gulf storm] Gordon have steadily come unwound since the short trading week started on Tuesday,” Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report, told MarketWatch.

Read the full article here

Five Big Catalysts Left

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Five Catalysts to Decide the Year (Abridged Version)
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways
  • Hurricane Gordon and Energy Markets

Futures are down roughly 10 points, the dollar is modestly higher, and international markets were broadly lower o/n amid fresh trade angst and concerns that the Chinese economy may be slowing.

The privately published Caixin China General Services PMI fell to a five month low in August, contradicting government data that showed continued growth last month.

Today, investor focus will return to trade as talks with Canada are set to resume and the initial tariff deadline for the next wave of tariffs on China, looms.

There is one economic report to watch: International Trade (E: -$50.2B), and several Fed speakers on the schedule: Williams (12:30, 3:00, 5:30 p.m. ET), Kashkari (4:00 p.m. ET), and Bostic (6:30 p.m. ET).

The dollar remains the single best indicator for near term moves in the market right now, so if the dollar continues to extend last week’s rally, stocks will likely remain under pressure, especially emerging market shares. But, if the dollar starts to fade, and fall back towards key support, stocks should be able to retest recent highs.

Access the full report here

Weekly Market Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Weekly Market Outlook

Futures are marginally higher this morning and global markets were mostly flat overnight after a very quiet and uneventful holiday weekend as focus turns to data this week.

Economically, Eurozone PPI was solid at 4.0% YoY, but most of the rise was due to energy prices and core inflation levels remain slow but steady in the EU.

Energy prices are notably higher this morning due to Tropical Storm Gordon’s near term threat to Gulf oil operations.

Today, focus will be on economic data early: ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 57.6) and Construction Spending (E: 0.4%) while there are no Fed speakers scheduled to speak.

Beyond data, investors will largely be focused on trade relations this week, more so with China but negotiations with Canada will also be important.

The dollar has been a good, inverse indicator for investor sentiment towards trade and it is handily higher this morning. If the dollar strength continues, it will be hard for stocks to continue last week’s gains this week.

To read the full article Go Here