Posts

How Is the Market at All-Time Highs?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Is the Market at All-Time Highs?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Earnings and Economic Growth Continue to Support This Market?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Flash PMIs the Key Report This Week (More Insight into Stagflation Risks)

Futures are moderately lower on higher oil prices (up 5%) as Iran backtracked on its commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

Iran fired on two commercial ships transiting the Strait while the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship, escalating tensions between the two countries.

Despite that escalation, ceasefire talks between the two countries are still expected to occur on Tuesday and markets still fully expect a lasting ceasefire to be agreed to in the relatively near future.

Today, focus will stay on geopolitics and as long as the ceasefire talks in Pakistan aren’t cancelled, markets should mostly ignore any negative geopolitical headlines.

Earnings season also rolls on this week and some notable reports today include: CLF ($-0.40), ALK ($-1.61), STLD ($2.79).

 

FOMC Preview

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Composite Flash PMI Takeaways – Service Sector Growth Falters
  • 10-Yr Note Yield Maintains Long-Term Uptrend (For Now) – Chart

Futures are little changed as mostly upbeat earnings in Europe were offset by a weaker than expected ECB Survey while focus turns to big cap tech earnings and this week’s central bank meetings.

The ECB’s latest Lending Survey revealed that corporate loan demand collapsed to the lowest on record in Q2 underscoring tighter credit conditions and the threat of a further slowdown in growth in the Eurozone.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.8%) and Consumer Confidence (E: 111.8) reports both due to be released while the July FOMC meeting gets underway.

There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move yields and have an impact on stocks, but a material move in markets ahead of the Fed decision remains unlikely unless it is driven by earnings.

Speaking of which, today will be a busy one for corporate earnings as: VZ ($1.17), GM ($1.65), GE ($0.46), MMM ($1.65) are all scheduled to release results before the bell while tech giants MSFT ($2.54) and GOOGL ($1.32) report after the bell. Additionally, V ($2.11) will release results after the close.

How the Debt Ceiling is Starting to Impact Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How the Debt Ceiling is Starting to Impact Markets

Futures are slightly lower despite solid economic data overnight, as markets await this morning flash PMIs.

EU and UK flash composite PMIs were better than expected at 54.4. vs. (E) 54.0 for the Euro Zone and 53.9 vs. (E) 52.4 for the UK, and both numbers are pushing back on the global recession narrative.

Today the focus will be on the April Flash Composite PMI (E: 50.7) and after yesterday’s soft Philly data, markets will absolutely want to see solid numbers. If that happens, we should expect a rebound from yesterday’s declines.

We also get another Fed speaker, Cook at 4:35 p.m. ET and some additional earnings: PG ($1.32), HCA ($3.99), SLB ($0.61), FCX ($0.46), RF ($0.65), SAP ($1.25).