Tom Essaye Quoted in Benzinga on August 12, 2021
3 Things That Could Send The S&P 500 Down 20%
The consensus expectations for the Federal Reserve monthly asset purchasing is that the Fed…Essaye said. Click here to read the full article.
Tag Archive for: Fed
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Tom Essaye Quoted in The Byron Review on August 6, 2021
Jobs increased by 943,000 in July; Unemployment rate drops to 5.4%
The July jobs report reinforces the fact that the Fed will reduce its quantitative easing over the…Tom Essaye, founder and chairman of Sevens Report Research said. Click here to read the full article.
Watch TSA Throughput (Again)
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Watching TSA Throughput, Again
Stock futures are rebounding following yesterday’s losses as positive earnings help offset renewed volatility in Chinese markets and mixed Fed speak to start the week.
Volatility in Chinese equities spiked again overnight as regulators reportedly took aim at gaming companies, but the state-owned news article that initiated the largely tech-focused selling was removed and Chinese indices ended well off the lows.
Economically, EU PPI was the latest “hot” inflation print as it surprisingly rose 0.1% to 1.4% vs. (E) 0.6% in June, but for now, investors are largely shrugging off the release.
Today, there are two economic reports: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.7) and Factory Orders (E: 0.8%) as well as one Fed official scheduled to speak: Bowman (2:00 p.m. ET), however, they should not materially move markets with the July jobs data looming.
Solid earnings have been a major supporter of equity markets in recent weeks and the Q2 reporting season remains in full swing with BABA ($2.24), LLY ($1.89), CLX ($1.29), BP ($0.61), and COP ($1.15) releasing results before the bell, and notables LYFT (-$0.24) and AMGN ($4.23) reporting after the closing bell.
Bottom line, the sharp drop in bond yields played a big role in yesterday’s stock market pullback, so if Treasuries stabilize today, stocks should be able to regain some ground however there are several risks that could see the major indexes make new lows for the week including hawkish Fed chatter and negative Delta-variant developments.
All About Demand
What’s in Today’s Report:
- All About Demand
- Weekly Market Preview: The Fed and Inflation
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Fed Meeting, Core PCE Price Index and GDP.
Futures are marginally lower as increased concerns about regulation in China caused a sharp drop in Chinese shares, and that’s weighing on global equities.
The Hang Seng dropped more than 4% on Monday on fears of increased regulation from the Chinese government, following reports China was going to make the education business sector “not for profit.”
COVID headlines remained generally unchanged over the weekend as cases continued to rise in the U.S, although governments continue to resist restrictions and lockdowns.
Today there’s only one notable economic report, New Home Sales (E: 800k), and that shouldn’t move markets. On the earnings front, the key report today comes after the close (TSLA $0.96), so focus will be on COVID headlines and if there are any reports of increased restrictions or lockdowns here in the U.S., that will hit stocks.
Tom Essaye Interviewed with TD Ameritrade Network on July 14, 2021
Consumer Price Index Takeaways / The Fed’s Comments
Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, discusses the Consumer Price Index takeaways as well as Powell’s comments. Click here to watch the full interview.
Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Barron’s on June 24, 2021
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Down but Not Out. What It Means for Stocks.
An orderly move higher in yields should be welcomed by equity markets as it will underscore investor confidence in the Fed’s ability to…Richey says. Click here to read the full article.
Do Bonds Know Something Stocks Don’t?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Do Bonds Know Something Stocks Don’t?
- Existing Home Sales Data Takeaways
Stock futures are trading slightly higher this morning following mixed economic data overnight and a continued digestion of Powell’s “less-hawkish” testimony yesterday.
Economically, June Flash Composite PMI data was mixed as the Japan report disappointed (47.8 vs. E: 48.8) but the Eurozone print beat estimates (59.2 vs. E: 58.8).
Today, focus will be on economic data early with the U.S. PMI Composite Flash due to be released shortly after the bell (E: 67.9) and then a report on New Home Sales (E: 881K) will print at the top of the 10 a.m. hour.
Additionally, there are several Fed speakers to watch who could move markets today including: Bowman (9:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET), Rosengren (6:30 p.m. ET).
Finally, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact bonds and ultimately stocks if yields move on the results.
Economic Breaker Panel: June Update
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Sevens Report Economic Breaker Panel: June Update
U.S. equity futures are flat this morning after wavering between gains and losses overnight as investors continue to digest the whipsaw moves across asset classes since last week’s Fed meeting and look ahead to more commentary from Chair Powell today.
There were no market-moving economic reports overnight.
Today, there is just one economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.715M) but the release is not likely to materially move markets.
That will leave investors focused on the Fed with several officials speaking today including: Mester (10:30 a.m. ET), Daly (11:00 a.m. ET), and Powell (2:00 p.m. ET). Powell’s testimony before Congress this afternoon will be the main event of the session as he is likely to discuss the Fed’s plans to balance rising inflation with the still fragile economic recovery.
Finally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could offer some insight into the market’s expectations for Fed policy as the short end of the yield curve has moved sharply higher since last week’s FOMC meeting.
Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on June 17, 2021
Oil prices end sharply lower as Fed’s shift in tone lifts U.S. dollar
The rise in the dollar was certainly a renewed headwind for oil and all commodities, prompting some cross-asset funds…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Four Pillars of the Rally Remain Intact
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Bottom Line – Four Pillars of the Rally Remain Intact
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Flash PMIs and Core PCE in Focus
Stock futures are trading cautiously higher this morning while international equities were mixed overnight as markets attempt to stabilize following last week’s volatile, Fed-induced declines.
News flow was quiet over the weekend as there were no major economic releases or central bank developments however the yield curve remains in focus as several key spreads have flattened to multi-month lows on hawkish policy expectations and a more cautious growth outlook.
There are no notable economic reports and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.
The lack of market catalysts will leave investors to continue to digest last week’s Fed developments and closely monitor the bond markets for further clues on expectations for both monetary policy and the state of the economic recovery.