Inflation not being temporary is easily the biggest long-term risk to this market, because it will cause the Fed to get more…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are drifting modestly higher following a generally quiet night of news.
Economic data was solid as European Commission Economic Sentiment beat estimates (114.5 vs. (E) 112.1) while the Japanese unemployment rate was in-line with expectations. But, neither number is moving markets.
Earnings overnight were very strong (especially in the retailers like COST) but questions remain about the sustainability of the results so they aren’t causing a big rally.
Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.7% m/m, 3.0% y/y). The market expects and has priced in a strong number, so something slightly above estimates should not cause a hawkish reaction (yields higher/stocks lower). But, if we see the Core PCE Price Index print close to 4% yoy, that would likely be a headwind on stocks (and push the 10 year yield towards 1.70%).
The market is basically in a holding pattern until the next big event, which is the Fed’s tapering schedule (or not tapering schedule), until we have more clarity on Fed tapering and the longer-term…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
The market is basically in a holding pattern until the next big event, which is the Fed’s tapering schedule (or not tapering schedule), until we have more…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher as markets ignore more Bitcoin volatility following a generally quiet weekend.
Bitcoin volatility remained elevated, with the cryptocurrency falling more than 10% over the weekend, and then bouncing back more than 5% this morning, but markets are ignoring the volatility so far today.
There were no notable economic reports over the weekend, nor any notable central bank speak.
Today there are multiple Fed speakers but we’ll be watching Brainard (9:00 a.m. ET) and Mester (11:00 a.m. ET) specifically to see if there’s any reference to thinking about tapering (if there is look for a small hawkish response from markets). Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET) and George (5:30 p.m. ET) also speak today but shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher on momentum from Friday’s strong (but not too strong) jobs report.
Friday’s jobs report handily beat estimates (916k vs. (E) 660k) but the unemployment rate remained above 6% and wages were soft, so the number didn’t spike Treasury yields and futures rose Friday after the release.
There was no notable economic data or political news over the weekend and many foreign markets are closed for Easter Monday.
Today the key economic report is the ISM Services PMI (E: 58.6) and markets will want to see a strong number showing a continued rebound in the service sector. With many foreign markets closed, trading should be otherwise quiet but the 10 year yield is still key. It digested Friday’s strong jobs report well, but if we see a rally today towards 1.80%, that will be a headwind on stocks.
Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report,” warned clients Tuesday that share prices are also at risk of falling if the Fed disappoints. U.S. stocks are poised to open higher after a four-day slump, index futures…Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are modestly lower today as investors digest yesterday’s strong equity rally and assess the COVID-19 outbreak among politicians after President Trump’s return to the White House from Walter Reed Medical Center.
Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders grew 4.5% vs. (E) 2.3% in August but positive economic data remains a near-term negative for risk assets as it reduces pressure for lawmakers to unleash more stimulus.
Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Goods & Services Trade (E: -$66.5) before the bell and JOLTS (E: 6.250M) shortly after the open but neither is expected to materially move markets.
There are also multiple Fed speakers today including: Harker (12:00 p.m. ET), Bostic (2:00 p.m. ET), and Kaplan (6:00 p.m. ET) but Powell (10:40 a.m. ET) will be the most closely watched as the market looks for further clues into future policy.
Beyond economic data and Fed speakers, markets will continue to focus on Capitol Hill and the ongoing negotiations for the next stimulus deal. Specifically, Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are expected to have a follow up call today so investors will be anxiously waiting for any updates from their conversation.
“By giving the market a lot lodging … the Fed has primarily created a spoiled youngster the place nothing’s sufficient…” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Analysis, tells Axios. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are rallying with international shares this morning as investors digest soft economic data and look ahead to another day of Powell’s testimony before Congress.
The EU PMI Composite Flash missed estimates this month (50.1 vs. E: 51.7) due to an unexpected drop in the services index but the weakness is bolstering stimulus hopes.
Turning to the U.S. session, there are two economic reports to watch this morning: FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.6%) and the PMI Composite Flash (E: 54.5). The latter will be the important one to watch as investors will be looking to see if the service index “whiffed” as it did in Europe which would up the pressure on lawmakers to pass a new stimulus bill.
Beyond the data, there is a slew of Fed speak today including: Mester (9:00 a.m. ET), Evans (11:00 a.m. ET), Rosengren (12:00 p.m. ET), Bostic (1:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET), and Daly (3:00 p.m. ET), however Chair Powell’s second day of testimony before Congress (beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET) will be the most closely watched as the market continues to look for affirmation that more accommodation and stimulus are on the way.
