Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, discusses the Consumer Price Index takeaways as well as Powell’s comments. Click here to watch the full interview.
An orderly move higher in yields should be welcomed by equity markets as it will underscore investor confidence in the Fed’s ability to…Richey says. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading slightly higher this morning following mixed economic data overnight and a continued digestion of Powell’s “less-hawkish” testimony yesterday.
Economically, June Flash Composite PMI data was mixed as the Japan report disappointed (47.8 vs. E: 48.8) but the Eurozone print beat estimates (59.2 vs. E: 58.8).
Today, focus will be on economic data early with the U.S. PMI Composite Flash due to be released shortly after the bell (E: 67.9) and then a report on New Home Sales (E: 881K) will print at the top of the 10 a.m. hour.
Additionally, there are several Fed speakers to watch who could move markets today including: Bowman (9:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET), Rosengren (6:30 p.m. ET).
Finally, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact bonds and ultimately stocks if yields move on the results.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are flat this morning after wavering between gains and losses overnight as investors continue to digest the whipsaw moves across asset classes since last week’s Fed meeting and look ahead to more commentary from Chair Powell today.
There were no market-moving economic reports overnight.
Today, there is just one economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.715M) but the release is not likely to materially move markets.
That will leave investors focused on the Fed with several officials speaking today including: Mester (10:30 a.m. ET), Daly (11:00 a.m. ET), and Powell (2:00 p.m. ET). Powell’s testimony before Congress this afternoon will be the main event of the session as he is likely to discuss the Fed’s plans to balance rising inflation with the still fragile economic recovery.
Finally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could offer some insight into the market’s expectations for Fed policy as the short end of the yield curve has moved sharply higher since last week’s FOMC meeting.
The rise in the dollar was certainly a renewed headwind for oil and all commodities, prompting some cross-asset funds…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading cautiously higher this morning while international equities were mixed overnight as markets attempt to stabilize following last week’s volatile, Fed-induced declines.
News flow was quiet over the weekend as there were no major economic releases or central bank developments however the yield curve remains in focus as several key spreads have flattened to multi-month lows on hawkish policy expectations and a more cautious growth outlook.
There are no notable economic reports and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.
The lack of market catalysts will leave investors to continue to digest last week’s Fed developments and closely monitor the bond markets for further clues on expectations for both monetary policy and the state of the economic recovery.
Stock futures are flat this morning as a sense of Fed paralysis grips global markets ahead of…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower as markets digest yesterday’s more hawkish than expected FOMC meeting.
The U.S. dollar is surging this morning off the more hawkish than expected Fed and gold is getting hit hard as currency markets re-price for a less dovish Fed.
Economically the only notable number was the Australian Labour Force Survey, which handily beat expectations (115k job adds vs. (E) 30k), reflecting the global nature of the economic recovery.
Today there are two notable economic reports, Jobless Claims (E: 364K) and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Index (E: 30.8) but unless either number is a substantial surprise, they shouldn’t move markets. Instead, markets will be watching the dollar and Treasury yields for reaction to the Fed. If both rally hard throughout the day, that will pressure stocks further as it erodes some of the “dovish Fed” support that’s helped the S&P 500 rally to recent highs.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are flat this morning as a sense of Fed paralysis grips global markets ahead of the FOMC announcement while economic data disappointed overnight.
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production and Retail Sales data all missed estimates for the month of May which resulted in Asian markets underperforming overnight.
Looking into this morning’s trading session, there are two lesser followed economic reports due to be released: Housing Starts (E: 1.630M) and Import & Export Prices (E: 0.7%, 0.7%) but neither release should move markets with the Fed looming.
The Biden-Putin meeting in Geneva will also get media attention but it is very unlikely to actually impact markets. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress regarding Biden’s budget (10:00 a.m. ET), however, could move markets as she will likely be discussing taxes and any hint of a material hike in capital gains rates or corporate tax rates could weigh on markets even ahead of the Fed.
Today’s main event for the markets will of course be the conclusion of the June Fed meeting with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET and then Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. If anything causes tapering expectations to be pulled forward towards September or evidence emerges of plans to raise rates in 2022, that will be viewed as hawkish and cause significant volatility across assets classes. Otherwise, an “as expected” or dovish meeting outcome will likely result in equities continuing to trade at or near all-time highs.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a quiet weekend as markets look ahead to Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
The G-7 meeting in England produced a lot of headlines including broad agreement on a minimum corporate tax. But there were little specifics of any new policies released and the meeting won’t impact markets.
Economic data was sparse as the only notable number was Eurozone Industrial Production which rose 0.8% vs. (E) 0.4%.
Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speak (the Fed meeting starts tomorrow so officials are in their “quiet period” ahead of the meeting) so for markets to extend last week’s rally we’ll need to get corporate commentary that confirms inflation pressures are “peaking.” Absent that, I’d expect stocks to largely tread water ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision.