But it was comments from the Fed that unnerved markets late last week, not fears about the…according to Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
Super-cap tech has been well bid on the expectation of ‘forever’ low rates and support…said Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are tracking global equity markets higher amid easing Omicron fears and good economic data.
GlaxoSmithKline reported overnight that their antibody treatment is effective against the heavily mutated Omicron variant which is helping further ease fears about the new strain.
Economically, Chinese Imports rose 31.7% vs. (E) 21.5% y/y and Exports rose 22.0% vs. (E) 20.3% y/y in November pointing to a still-healthy economic recovery and that is supporting risk on money flows this morning.
Today, there are two lesser followed economic reports due out: International Trade in Goods and Services (E: -$66.8B), Productivity and Costs (E: -4.9%, 8.3%) but neither is likely to materially move markets while there are no Fed officials speaking today.
There is a 3-year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact yields and the broader curve and if we see a sharp enough flattening move (weak demand for shorter maturities amid rate hike fears) stocks could come under pressure, but to be clear, the tone is very risk on this morning as dip-buyers step into the market, chasing this bounce higher.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures slightly higher following generally positive comments on Omicron over the weekend.
There were multiple articles and commentary from public health officials suggesting the Omicron variant is more contagious but produces mild symptoms. Also, existing vaccines appear to give protection against severe illness, although markets are waiting for official word from both PFE and MRNA.
Economic data was mixed as German Manufacturers Orders fell –6.9% vs. (E) -0.5% while the UK Construction PMI rose to 55.5 vs. (E) 52.0 but the numbers aren’t moving markets.
Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers. Like Friday, how the Nasdaq trades will likely determine the day, as markets want to see the tech sector stabilize after intense weakness late last week. If Nasdaq can stabilize, the broad market can bounce.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are solidly positive as markets bounce from Wednesday’s sell-off following a quiet night of news.
There are no definitive results yet, but the chatter on Omicron is that vaccines do still provide protection from severe illness, and that is slightly easing anxiety about the variant.
Economic data was sparse but showed continued inflation pressures as Euro Zone PPI rose 5.4% vs. (E) 3.2%.
Today the key report is Jobless Claims (E: 245K) and we expect a solid bounce back from last week’s very low numbers, but clearly, trends in the labor market continue to improve. We also get numerous Fed speakers including: Bostic (8:30 & 11:30 a.m. ET), Quarles (11:00 a.m. ET), Daly (11:30 a.m. ET), and Barkin (11:30 a.m. ET).
Bottom line, the market is dealing with three separate headwinds (ranked in order of importance): Omicron uncertainty, Fed tapering acceleration, and Washington dysfunction (possible shutdown). Positive headlines on any of them will help stocks bounce, while further negative headlines (like yesterday with a possible government shutdown) will cause another decline.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are rebounding with European stocks and other risk assets such as oil this morning as Omicron fears continue to ebb and flow while some of the hawkish money flows from yesterday are unwound.
Powell’s comments yesterday were hawkish regarding tapering however the market’s outlook for rate hikes remains largely unchanged which is helping stocks stabilize.
Economically, Final Manufacturing PMIs were largely in line with expectations overnight and did not materially move markets.
Looking into today’s session, there are a few key economic reports to watch starting with the first look at November jobs data via the ADP Employment Report (E: 525K), followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 61.1) and Construction Spending (E: 0.6%).
Finally, Powell will continue his CARES Act testimony at 10:00 a.m. ET today and the market will be listening closely for any further hints about taper plans, rate hike timelines, and the potential impact of the Omicron variant.
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What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are down more than 1%, tracking global equities lower while the 10-year yield is down more than 10 basis points on renewed omicron variant concerns.
In an interview with the FT, MRNA’s CEO said the scientists he had spoken with expect a material decline in the efficacy of current vaccines against the new omicron variant of the coronavirus due to the high number of mutations and that is weighing heavily on risk assets this morning.
Today, there are a few economic reports due out: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.0%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 110.7), but all of the data was gathered well before the omicron news emerged and therefore will not have a major impact on markets given the keen focus on COVID in recent days.
Fed Chair Powell will join Treasury Secretary Yellen in testifying before the Senate this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET and any indication that the Fed may change course regarding policy plans as a result of omicron could move markets. There is one other Fed speaker today: Williams (10:30 a.m. ET).
Bottom line, this is once again a COVID-driven market and any negative headlines about vaccine effectiveness or the severity of omicron infections could cause more risk off money flows as the odds of new lockdowns in parts of the world would rise as a result.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are trading lower with most overseas equity markets as elevated bond yields continue to weigh on big-cap tech names.
Economically, Composite PMI data in Europe was better than expected with the Eurozone figure hitting 55.8 vs. (E) 53.1 for November however the upbeat data is further supporting bond yields which are weighing on equities.
Looking into today’s session, there is one domestic economic report to watch: PMI Composite Flash (E: 57.8) and if it is as strong as the releases in Europe, that could support a further rise in yields which will keep pressure on equity markets.
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but the Treasury will hold a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could serve as another catalyst for higher yields. And again, that is a potential negative for stocks as big-cap tech names will almost certainly extend yesterday’s late-day declines if yields continue this week’s rise.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher on Powell optimism and as there were no incremental COVID restrictions in Europe.
President Biden was reportedly highly complimentary of Powell in meetings this weekend, leading markets to fully expect he will be reappointed as Fed Chair this week.
There were no new COVID restrictions announced in Europe over the weekend, providing some hope lockdowns won’t be extensive.
There were no notable economic reports overnight.
Today there are no Fed speakers and just one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 6.20 M), and that won’t move markets. So, any news on Powell’s reappointment as Fed Chair and incremental COVID headlines will move markets today (if Powell is reappointed and COVID headlines don’t get worse, stocks can extend the rally).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are little changed this morning as a hot U.K. inflation report is digested ahead of more retail earnings.
U.K. CPI rose 4.2% vs. (E) 3.9% year-over-year which is pushing the pound higher against most of its peers as rate hike expectations rise.
Today, there is just one economic report: Housing Starts & Permits (E: 1.587M, 1.630M) but it is another very busy day of Fed speak: Williams (9:10 a.m. ET), Mester (11:20 a.m., 12:40 p.m. ET), Waller (12:40 p.m. ET), Daly (12:40 p.m. ET), Evans (4:05 p.m. ET), and Bostic (4:10 p.m. ET).
There is also a 20-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and investors will be closely watching earnings releases from notable retailers ahead of the open: TGT ($2.87) and TJX ($0.81) as well as NVDA ($1.10) after the close.