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Why Did Stocks Drop on Friday?

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Why Did Stocks Drop on Friday? Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Stocks Drop on Friday?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will the Fed Confirm Market Expectations?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Growth Data Throughout the Week (Could Confirm or Undermine Soft/No Landing Hopes)

Futures are slightly higher as markets bounce following Friday’s declines and after a quiet weekend of news.

The various strikes occurring across the country (writers, UAW) contributed to Friday’s market decline. There was little positive progress over the weekend on resolving either work stoppage.

Geopolitically, President Biden’s National Security Advisor met with China’s foreign minister. The meeting is raising hopes the U.S./China relationship could improve.

Today the only notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 50.0) and that shouldn’t move markets as long as it doesn’t provide a major positive or negative surprise. Barring that, we’d expect pre-Fed positioning to generally drive trading today.

Why Did Stocks Drop

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CPI’s Influence on Market Dynamics: A Closer Look

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CPI’s Influence on Market Dynamics: Tom Essaye Quoted by BNN Bloomberg

Nasdaq 100 Drops 1 per cent as Apple slides after event

CPI is really key because if it halts its downward trend, markets will have to price in a more hawkish Fed. And that would be a headwind on stocks, said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter.

Lastly, “Put in a more familiar way, CPI impacts two of the three pillars of the rally: disinflation and expectation the Fed is done with rate hikes,” Essaye noted.

Also, click here to view the full BNN Bloomberg article published on September 12th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full discussion on CPI’s influence on markets sign up here.

CPI's Influence - BNN

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CPI remains the most important monthly economic metric

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CPI remains the most important monthly economic metric: Tom Essaye Quoted in MorningStar

Dow turns higher as Apple falls ahead of its iPhone event, with inflation data looming

“CPI remains the most important monthly economic metric for the simple reason that if CPI does not continue to decline, markets will have to price in a more hawkish Fed, and that would be a headwind on stocks,” said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, in a note Tuesday.

“Sensitivity to this report will be especially high tomorrow because there have been anecdotal signs that inflation may be leveling off or bouncing back,” he said.

A “good” CPI report would show core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.2% or less in August, according to Essaye. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal have forecast that core CPI increased 0.2% last month and 4.3% year over year.

“A continued drop in core CPI will help to calm concerns that inflation is bouncing back, and that could trigger a solid drop in Treasury yields and a good relief rally in stocks,” said Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on September 12th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Headline and Core CPI – The Important Difference

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Difference Between Headline and Core CPI: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Important Difference Between Headline and Core CPI
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Contradicts the “No-Landing” Scenario

U.S. stock futures are tracking global shares lower this morning following more disappointing economic data in the Eurozone and continued pressure on the tech sector.

AAPL shares are extending yesterday’s post-product launch declines this morning, therefore, weighing on the tech sector broadly in pre-market trading.

Economically, U.K. GDP dropped to -0.5% vs. (E) -0.2% in July after hot wage data yesterday, bolstering stagflation fears while EU Industrial Production fell -1.1% vs. (E) -0.7%. Despite the recently soft data, rates markets continue to price in a 75% chance of an ECB rate hike this week.

Today, focus will primarily be on inflation data and how Treasuries react to the release: CPI (0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y), Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 4.4% y/y).

There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today so a “hot” CPI report will likely spark cross-asset volatility while a Goldilocks release will setup a possible extension of the early September relief rally.

Headline and Core CPI

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CPI Preview Scenarios: Good, Bad, Ugly

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CPI Preview Scenarios: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • CPI Preview Scenarios: Good, Bad, Ugly
  • Table: CME FedWatch Tool Shows No Additional Rate Hikes This Cycle

Stock futures are modestly lower today as ORCL offered disappointed revenue guidance after yesterday’s close. And, while economic data was largely disappointing overnight.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey’s Current Conditions Index fell to -79.4 vs. (E) -71.3. U.K. Also, wage growth rose to 8.5% vs. (E) 8.2% stoking stagflation concerns in Europe.

Domestically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 91.3 vs. (E) 91.7 in August. This was well below the long-term average of 98.0 pointing to deteriorating sentiment among small business owners.

Today, there are no additional economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which will leave equity traders focused on AAPL’s new product event. Tech shares have been driving the major stock indices so far this week (TSLA and QCOM yesterday, ORCL this morning) so any meaningful reaction in AAPL shares will likely move the broader indices as focus turns ahead to CPI tomorrow.

Finally, there is a 10-Yr T-Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move fixed-income markets and see equities reprice inflation expectations ahead of tomorrow’s widely anticipated inflation release, but no major moves are expected before tomorrow’s CPI print.

CPI Preview

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Stable Treasury Yields: Tom Essaye’s Insight

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Stable Treasury Yields: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Are Rising, With Tech Leading the Way Higher

Technology stocks were leading the broader market higher in early Monday trading as traders braced for a busy week ahead.

“Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers, so focus will remain on Treasury yields and if yields are relatively stable, then stocks can rebound from last week’s losses,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. 

The big event of the week will be the release of the consumer-price index for August on Wednesday. The inflation reading will inform the Federal Reserve’s next moves on inflation. 

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Treasury Yields

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more… To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Focus Remains on Treasury Yields Today

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Today’s Focus Remains on Treasury Yields – Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Dow edges up as stocks look to rebound ahead of coming inflation, retail sales data

U.S. stock indexes were up as of Monday afternoon, with consumer discretionary shares and several technology companies leading the broader market higher, as traders braced for a busy week of economic data releases.

“No major U.S. economic data is set for release on Monday, so the focus will remain on Treasury yields”, said Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report Research. 

“If yields are relatively stable, then stocks can rebound from last week’s losses”, Essaye said in an email.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on today’s market insights sign up here.

Treasury Yields

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more… To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Labor Market Analysis By Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

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Labor Market Analysis – Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Weaker-Than-Expected August Job Growth Reported—Labor Market Officially At Pre-Pandemic Levels

In a Wednesday note to clients, which included the labor market analysis, Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye cautioned against bullish investors celebrating a labor market slowdown as an outright win for stocks, writing the economy is now entering the “difficult” stage of navigating a higher-interest rate environment.

“If the labor market is seeing easing, then now is the time the Fed will have to perfectly execute the ‘soft landing,’ because getting the economy to slow is the ‘easy’ part of monetary policy.” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.

Click here to read more of Tom’s labor market analysis.

Forbes Labor Market

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Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 30th, 2023

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U.S. Stock Futures Waver After Rally With More Jobs Data in Focus

“There are no Fed speakers today, so investors will be looking for more evidence that supports a continued pause in the Fed’s rate hiking cycle (or peak rates already being in) and ultimately a soft landing,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. “Anything that contradicts that narrative will be a headwind on equities and other risk assets today.”

Click here to read the full article.

Why Could CPI Be Poised to Drop Further?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Could CPI Be Poised to Drop Further?
  • Chart: Zillow Observable Rent Index

U.S. stock futures are slightly higher this morning, tracking modest gains in global shares thanks to news that China is considering deeper rate cuts on deposits and mortgages while important economic data due later in the week remains in focus.

Economically, the German GfK Consumer Climate Index for September fell to -25.5 vs. (E) -24.3 underscoring widely held concerns about the future of the Eurozone economy.

Looking into today’s session, there are three economic reports due out this morning: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 116.5), JOLTS (E: 9.559M).

Markets will be looking for easing, but still healthy consumer confidence readings and a declining, but not collapsing JOLTS figure to support the thesis that the economy is slowing at a pace consistent with a soft landing. Data that is too strong or too weak will likely weigh on equities.

Additionally, there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if the outcome is weak pushing rates higher, that will create a headwind on risk assets.

Finally, there is one Fed official scheduled to speak today: Barr (3:00 p.m. ET). Considered a centrist, his comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues of a shift in policy expectations following Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday.