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It’s Not How High Rates Go Anymore, It’s How Long They Stay There

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • It’s Not How High That Matters Anymore, It’s How Long
  • Retail Sales & Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways (Very Mixed Reports)
  • Chart – S&P 500 Violates 50 Day Moving Average for the First Time Since March

Stock futures are little changed this morning as new stimulus efforts by China help offset more negative global economic data and a hawkish leaning RBNZ meeting decision.

Chinese Home Prices fell -0.1% vs. (E) 0.0% prompting a cash injection and stronger currency fix by the PBOC which helped stabilize global risk assets overnight given the recent turmoil in the world’s second largest economy.

In Europe, U.K. Core CPI held steady at 6.9% vs. (E) 6.8% in July solidifying peak rate expectations of 6.0%, however bond yields are retreating modestly from the week’s highs which is helping stocks continue to stabilize today.

Looking into today’s session, we will get two economic reports this morning: Housing Starts (E: 1.455 million), Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) before focus will turn to the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Bottom line, the market wants to see more “Goldilocks” data consistent with a soft economic landing and no evidence in the Fed minutes that suggests a more hawkish policy path than is currently expected (rate cuts beginning H1’24). Otherwise, volatility is likely to remain elevated with equities under pressure.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 11th, 2023

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Stocks Eked Out a Very Small Gain, Snapped Their Losing Streak

“The market already assumes continued disinflation, so the fact that inflation declined modestly in July just met existing (and already priced in) expectations,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “And, much of the gains in the morning were technical, on a rebound from Wednesday’s drop and an anticipation of the CPI report. But, when it failed to provide a new, positive catalyst, we saw trade exit positions as this market needs something new and positive to rally, not just confirmation of what we already assume and have priced in.”

Click here to read the full article.

What’s Causing the Increased Volatility in Stocks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Causing the Increased Volatility in Stocks?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do the Three Pillars of the Rally Stay Intact?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Key Inflation Data This Week (CPI on Thursday)

Futures are rebounding modestly from last week’s declines following a quiet weekend of news and ahead of an important week of inflation data.

Economically, the only notable number was German Industrial Production, which fell more than expected (-1.5% vs. (E.) -0.5%) and again underscored growing recession risks in Europe.

Today the key economic report is the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (9:00 a.m. ET) as this is viewed as an anecdotal reading on inflation, and markets will want to see a further decline in car prices.

We also get Consumer Credit (E: $13.00B) and there are two Fed speakers, Harker (8:15 a.m. ET) and Bowman (8:30 a.m. ET), and markets will want to see those events reinforce the Goldilocks narrative (solid consumer spending and the Fed basically done with rate hikes).

How to Explain Inflation Base Effects to Clients and Prospects

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Explain Inflation to Clients and Prospects
  • JOLTS Return to Pre-Covid Trend Path, But Is That Enough for the Fed?
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways – Another “Goldilocks” Report
  • The Yield Curve Will Return to Zero, How It Gets There is What Matters Most (Chart)

Stock futures are trading lower with global risk assets after a U.S. credit downgrade late yesterday.

Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. from its top rating AAA to AA+ yesterday, citing the massive fiscal deficit, but the downgrade should not result in any forced selling of Treasuries and therefore should have a limited near-term impact on yields and markets more broadly.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on the U.S. credit downgrade as investors digest the potential implications on fixed income markets and re-assess valuations of risk assets, but we also get the first look at July jobs data in the form of the ADP Employment Report (E: 185K) ahead of the bell. If the data comes in “too hot” or “too cold” market volatility may pick up this morning. Motor Vehicle Sales will also be released (E: 15.6 million) but that data should not move markets.

There are no Fed speakers or notable Treasury auctions today, so beyond the early jobs data investors will continue to focus on Q2 earnings season with CVS ($2.12), KHC ($0.74), and PSX ($3.54) releasing results before the open while PYPL ($1.16), QCOM ($1.63) and MET ($1.85) will report after the close.

 

Sevens Report Technicals – Five Recessionary Bear Market Signals to Watch

The biggest risk to equity markets right now is a hard economic landing developing in H2’23 or sometime in 2024. Using modern market history as a guide, stock market rallies following yield curve inversions are typically reversed entirely during subsequent recessions (so all of the 2023 gains are at risk, and then some).

So, in this week’s edition of Sevens Report Technicals we included a list of Five Recessionary Bear Market Signals to Watch, which includes specific levels to monitor in various asset classes that will help us realize the onset of a looming recession in real time.

The feedback on Sevens Report Technicals has been overwhelmingly positive since its launch in May. One subscriber recently wrote in: “Having been in the business for 36 years and retired for 16, I truly believe this is the best report I have ever seen. The way you organize it and the info I glean from it helps my trading. I really look forward to each Monday’s report.”

To access this week’s edition of Sevens Report Technicals, please send an email to info@sevensreport.com to start a risk-free subscription. We offer a 30-day money back guarantee, so you risk nothing to see for yourself how Sevens Report Technicals can help you and your business.

Could the Yield Curve Be Wrong This Time?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Could the Yield Curve Be Wrong This Time?
  • Chart: 10s-2s Yield Curve Spread Near Multi-Decade Lows

Futures are lower this morning as economic data confirmed weakness in the global manufacturing sector while the RBA unexpectedly paused their rate hiking cycle at the conclusion of their latest meeting overnight.

Economically, China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a contractionary reading of 49.2 vs. (E) 50.1 while the Eurozone PMI met estimates at a very weak reading of 42.7, underscoring the challenges facing the global manufacturing sector.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports to watch: ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 46.5), Construction Spending (E: 0.6%), and JOLTS (E: 9.650 million). Investors will be looking for better than feared manufacturing data in the U.S. and signs that the domestic labor market is softening but not collapsing.

Earnings season also continues with multiple notable companies reporting quarterly results today including: UBER ($0.00), PFE ($0.57), CAT ($4.51), and JBLU ($0.40) before the open and AMD ($0.57), SBUX ($0.95), and AIG ($1.54) after the close.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum as yesterday’s FOMC decision reinforced market expectations that rate hikes are over, while markets anticipate a dovish hike from the ECB later this morning.

There was no market moving economic data overnight.

Today is a busy day on both the economics and earnings front.  The key event is the ECB Rate Decision (E: 25 bps hike) and markets will want to see if Lagarde implies the next rate hike (likely in September) will be the last one (if so, that’ll be a positive for markets).

Economically, there are several important reports today including, in order of importance: Jobless Claims (E: 235K), Durable Goods (E: 0.5%), Advanced Q2 GDP (E: 1.5% y/y) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.3%).  As has been the case for much of 2023, the more “Goldilocks” the data, the better for stocks (especially cyclicals).

Finally, on the earnings front, there are numerous notable reports today including: RCL ($1.58), MCD ($2.77), LUV ($1.08), MA ($2.84), HON ($2.20), F ($0.51) and INTC (-$0.04) and investors will remain focused on margins and guidance (they want to see positive commentary on both).

Dow Theory Update: Bullish Reversal in July

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Dow Theory Update – Bullish Reversal in July
  • Central Bank Decision Expectations: Fed, ECB, and BOE this Week

Futures are modestly lower as traders digest mixed mega-cap tech earnings and look ahead to today’s Fed decision.

On the earnings front, GOOGL is up 8%+ in premarket trade thanks to strong reported revenue growth while MSFT is down 3.5% on soft sales and weaker guidance specifically in the company’s cloud computing division.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: New Home Sales (E: 727K) before focus will turn to the Fed with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET (E: +25 bp hike) and Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

A busy week of earnings will also continue with T ($0.60), BA (-$0.99), and KO ($0.72) releasing quarterly results before the bell while META ($2.87) and STX (-$0.26) will report after the close.

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Composite Flash PMI Takeaways – Service Sector Growth Falters
  • 10-Yr Note Yield Maintains Long-Term Uptrend (For Now) – Chart

Futures are little changed as mostly upbeat earnings in Europe were offset by a weaker than expected ECB Survey while focus turns to big cap tech earnings and this week’s central bank meetings.

The ECB’s latest Lending Survey revealed that corporate loan demand collapsed to the lowest on record in Q2 underscoring tighter credit conditions and the threat of a further slowdown in growth in the Eurozone.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.8%) and Consumer Confidence (E: 111.8) reports both due to be released while the July FOMC meeting gets underway.

There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move yields and have an impact on stocks, but a material move in markets ahead of the Fed decision remains unlikely unless it is driven by earnings.

Speaking of which, today will be a busy one for corporate earnings as: VZ ($1.17), GM ($1.65), GE ($0.46), MMM ($1.65) are all scheduled to release results before the bell while tech giants MSFT ($2.54) and GOOGL ($1.32) report after the bell. Additionally, V ($2.11) will release results after the close.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch on July 17th, 2023

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Why U.S. stock-market investors shouldn’t expect positive economic data to push S&P 500 materially higher

While it’s undeniable that fears of a hard landing, inflation and hawkish Fed have not materialized, the reality is that the current level of the S&P 500 largely factors all of that in, so last week’s CPI and PPI reports didn’t provide the market with a new positive catalyst, but instead just reinforced what was already widely assumed,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a Monday note. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted on Investing.com on July 17th, 2023

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Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: Big Tech takes the stage

Sevens Report analysts: “At current levels, the S&P 500 has priced in 1) No hard landing, 2) Falling inflation and 3) A Fed that won’t be raising rates much longer (and possibly cutting soon after). That’s basically the best outcome anyone could have hoped for at the start of the year, and that means the gains in stocks are legitimate, but also likely exhausted in the near term and it’ll take something else to push stocks materially higher from here.” Click here to read the full article.