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Tom Essaye: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Set Rate-Cut Expectations

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Sevens Report president Tom Essaye: Fed chair’s comments may shape September policy outlook

Target is probably still missing the mark: Opening Bid top takeaway

“Powell could pave the road for a 25 basis point cut in September, he could push back on those expectations or he could simply not discuss policy much at all. From a market standpoint, any hint of promise of a rate cut will be welcomed, and push back on rate-cut expectations will likely cause a market decline,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article on Aol.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tom Essaye: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Sway Markets

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Investors eye rate-cut signals ahead of Fed meeting and retail earnings

Market-Moving Events Await Including Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting and Retail Earnings

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said Monday that Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole could have significant market impact.

“Powell could pave the road for a 25 basis point cut in September, he could push back on those expectations, or he could simply not discuss policy much at all,” Essaye noted.

He added that markets would welcome any hint of a cut, while firm resistance from Powell would likely weigh on stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article on news.ssbcrack.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

SPX: Hot PPI Threatens Key Pillars of Stock Market Rally Says Sevens Report

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Sevens Report president Tom Essaye warns inflation surprise clouds rate-cut hopes

SPX: PPI Shook the Pillars of the Stock Market Rally

Stocks rebounded from modest losses after Thursday’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) release, but the data rattled investors. Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report, cautioned that the July PPI “shook the pillars” of the S&P 500’s rally, which has leaned heavily on renewed rate-cut expectations.

“The headline surge was more than four times consensus and the strongest since March 2022,” Essaye said, noting that traders “sold first and asked questions later” as hopes for a September cut dimmed. Rising inflation pressures, he explained, are a direct threat to the macro drivers currently propping up equities.

Technically, Essaye sees the S&P 500 trend as “cautiously bullish” after the index hit new record highs. He flagged key resistance at 6,395, 6,427, and 6,500, while noting important support at 6,340, 6,238, and 6,104.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)
  • Gold Chart: Fragile Record Highs

Futures are flat as traders look ahead to today’s all-important CPI report.

Economically, the U.K.’s Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.7%, as expected, while the German ZEW Survey missed estimates, but the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 vs. (E) 98.9 from 98.6 in June.

Today, market focus will be almost exclusively on inflation data before the bell with CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

After the open, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET) and Schmid (10:30 a.m. ET), and any comments or insights they may offer in reaction to the CPI data could move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are a handful of companies due to report quarterly results today which could move markets, including: CAH ($2.03), SE ($0.72), RGTI ($-0.05), HRB ($2.81), CRCL ($-1.29), and ETOR ($0.49).

 

Tom Essaye Talks Growth, Fed, and Tariffs

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Financial Sense Newshour preview

Are Markets Ignoring Warning Signs? Tom Essaye Talks Growth, Fed, and Tariffs (Preview)

Markets appear upbeat—but could they be overlooking brewing risks? In this preview from Financial Sense Newshour (FS Insider), Sevens Report President Tom Essaye explores the tension between bullish sentiment and fragile economic signals.

Essaye discusses how investor optimism is colliding with warning signs around economic growth, Federal Reserve positioning, and trade policy uncertainty.

Also, click here to view the full video preview published on YouTube.com on August 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Stagflation Fears Keep Rising?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  ISM Services the Key Report This Week (Needs to Stay Above 50)

Futures are seeing a moderate bounce following Friday’s declines and after a mostly quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there was potentially positive news over the weekend as Swiss officials implied a trade deal with the U.S. was close, which would reduce tariffs.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are no economic reports so focus will remain on trade, and any announcement of trade deals that reduce tariffs will be a mild tailwind on the markets.

Finally, earnings season has mostly wrapped up but there are some remaining notable companies reporting including: BRK.B ($5.24), W ($0.27), ON ($0.54), TSN ($0.72), PLTR ($0.08), MELI ($12.01), AXON ($0.08).

 

How stock-market investors should trade what could be a historic Fed dissent on Wednesday

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Dissents unlikely to signal policy shift amid speculation over Fed succession

How stock-market investors should trade what could be a historic Fed dissent on Wednesday

Under normal circumstances, dissents for a rate cut would signal a dovish shift. But current dynamics make that unlikely to move markets, said Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Research.

“Don’t believe any reporting that implies the dissents are a dovish surprise or make a September rate cut more likely,” Essaye wrote Tuesday. “It won’t be a surprise and they won’t make a September cut more likely.”

Essaye notes that any dissents from Waller or Bowman would be seen as political positioning, not monetary policy pivots—particularly as both are viewed as potential successors to Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview: Wildcard to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview: What’s Expected, Hawkish Scenario, Dovish Scenario
  • Fed Meeting Wildcard to Watch: Dovish Dissents

U.S. equity futures are tracking European shares higher this morning amid continued optimism surrounding the U.S.-EU trade deal and resilient earnings ahead of the Fed decision.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight which will leave focus on earnings and U.S. economic data today as the July Fed meeting gets underway in Washington.

Today’s economic calendar is a fairly busy one with several potential market-moving reports due to be released including: Consumer Confidence (E: 95.8), JOLTS (E: 7.4 million), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 2.9%), and International Trade in Goods (E: $-99.0B).

Looking at earnings, the Q2 reporting season continues with notable companies releasing results today including: UNH ($4.84), SOFI ($0.06), BA ($-1.54), PG ($1.43), V ($2.86), MRK ($2.01), SBUX ($0.64).

Bottom line, investors will continue to look for resilient, yet not “too hot” economic data trends and upbeat earnings and guidance in order for stocks to hold yesterday’s record highs, however a familiar sense of “Fed Paralysis” is likely to grip markets ahead of tomorrow’s critical Fed decision.

 

Markets Relieved as Powell Expected to Finish Fed Term

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Stability in Fed leadership reassures investors amid earnings season

S&P 500, Nasdaq end with record highs again. Dow jumps, too.

Markets showed signs of relief Friday as expectations solidified that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will finish his term, despite speculation around his potential replacement.

“Markets still fully expect Powell to finish his term,”
said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

With investor attention split between corporate earnings—highlighted by Intel’s results—and central bank leadership, Powell’s expected continuity is seen as a stabilizing force amid global uncertainty.

Also, click here to view the full article published in USAToday.com on July 25th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: No Real Signs of a Slowdown

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard:  No Real Signs of a Slowdown

Futures are drifting slightly higher after a generally quiet night of no additional Trump/Powell drama or trade news.

President Trump’s visit to the Fed was largely uneventful and markets still fully expect Powell to finish his term.

Economic data from Europe slightly underwhelmed as UK Retail Sales (0.9% vs. (E) 1.4%) and German IFO Businesses expectations (90.7 vs. (E) 91.4) both missed estimates.

Today there’s just one notable economic report, Durable Goods (E: -11.0%), and markets will want to see another solid number that reinforces businesses are not slowing investment despite tariff uncertainty.

On earnings, next week is another big one for important companies but there are still some worthwhile results today including: CNC ($0.68), HCA ($6.19), AN ($4.70), PSX ($1.63), AON ($3.40).