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These are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market

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These are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market: Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil futures end higher as demand prospects improve

“Price-supportive OPEC+ rhetoric, evidence of strong domestic demand at the start of the U.S. summer driving season, rising geopolitical tensions overseas, and renewed hopes for a perfectly executed soft landing by the [Federal Reserve] are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“Sentiment is fragile, however, and if we see any headlines that contradict any of those factors that have supported the latest rally, or even just an uptick in broad market volatility into the end of the quarter, we could see oil markets correct back towards the mid-$70-a-barrel range,” he told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone

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Investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Are stock-market investors losing faith in ‘immaculate disinflation’?

That’s a sign that investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note.

While the S&P 500 rallied 1.58% last week, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.25%, the Dow industrials lost 0.54% and RSP (S&P 500 equal weight) declined 0.53%. “The reason the ‘rest’ of the market declined last week was that while disinflation is occurring, it may not be ‘immaculate’ and that’s a potential negative for stocks.,” he wrote.

“Here’s the point: If inflation falls because growth is slowing, that’s not an automatic positive for stocks anymore and we saw that this past week as sectors and stocks that weren’t attached to AI declined, despite the drop in CPI and rising Fed cut expectations,” he wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 17th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Chart: Multiple Expansion Lifts Scenario Targets

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Market Multiple Chart: Multiple Expansion Lifts Scenario Targets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart:  Multiple Expansion Lifts Scenario Targets

Futures are solidly higher thanks to a surprise rate cut from the SNB and despite worsening geo-political tensions.

The Swiss National Bank surprisingly cut rates 25 bps, citing easing inflation pressures, as the global rate cut cycle gets underway.

Geo-politically, the leader of Hezbollah threatened Israel with war, underscoring rising tensions between Israel and Lebanon.

Today will be a moderately busy day of data and news.  First, there is a Bank of England Rate Decision and while no change in rates is expected, the BOE may signal it’s ready to cut rates in the next meeting or two.

Economically, there are two important reports today: Jobless Claims (E: 235K) and Philly Fed (E: 5.2).  Given the recent data showing a loss of momentum in economic growth, investors will want to see better than expected readings (while soft readings will strengthen the narrative for slowing growth).

Finally, the parade of Fed speakers continues this week with Kashkari (8:45 a.m. ET) and Barkin (4:00 p.m. ET) but unless one of them openly discuss rate hikes, they shouldn’t move markets.

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Investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth

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Investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Market Had Another Great Week—but Trouble Still Lurks

In fact, investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth, wrote Sevens Report President Tom Essaye on Friday.

“To be clear, I’m not saying a slowdown is upon us and I’m not saying that the economic expansion is ending. Growth is still solid. What I am saying is that the market calculus…may be changing a bit at the margin,” Essaye wrote.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report

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The consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Lower. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Pull Back From Record Highs.

“But, more important than the consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “Markets will want to see stable consumer sentiment and better than expected inflation readings to rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investors are taking a bit off the top with markets hovering near all-time highs.

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Investors are taking a bit off the top: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

2 Big Reasons Why the Dow and S&P 500 Are Down

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that he thinks investors are taking a bit off the top with markets hovering near all-time highs.

“I think that markets are, especially at these levels, a bit nervous that perhaps growth is stronger than they think, and maybe inflation is just a touch stickier than they think following the jobs report,” he said in a phone interview.

Essaye thinks that it would take a very hot inflation report, one that spooks even the generally dovish Powell, to send stocks falling fast on Wednesday.

“If that starts to percolate, that’s a substantial change, because now they may hike again,” Essaye said. “And that would cause volatility. I think the chances of that happening tomorrow are extremely slim, unless CPI is just a total shock.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 11th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Table: Pushing Justifiable Valuations

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Market Multiple Table: Pushing Justifiable Valuations: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June Market Multiple Table – Pushing the Edge of Justifiable Valuations
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways
  • Chart – NVDA Tests Near-Term Uptrend

Futures are little changed as ongoing strength in technology shares offsets weakness in small caps in pre-market trade after mixed economic data overnight.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey missed estimates while the EU’s Narrow Core HICP (Core CPI equivalent) was inline with the May Flash of 2.9%, which was up from 2.7% in April.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with Retail Sales (E: 0.3%) and Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) both due to be released. Investors will be looking for signs of healthy consumer spending but not a figure that is “too hot” (hawkish policy concerns) or “too cold” (growth worries) while steady factory sector data would be welcomed but not as impactful for markets today.

There is also a long list of Fed speakers today. In chronological order, we will hear from: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET), Collins (11:40 a.m. ET), Musalem (1:00 p.m. ET), Logan (1:00 p.m. ET) and Goolsbee (2:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and weak demand could send yields higher and weigh on equities in afternoon trade.

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Is Disinflation Still Good for Markets? (The Answer May Surprise You)

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Is Disinflation Still Good for Markets? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Disinflation Still Good for Markets? (The Answer May Surprise You)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Are Hard Landing Chances Rising?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  A holiday-shortened week, but still one with important growth updates.

Futures are slightly lower on mixed Chinese economic data and following a quiet summer weekend of news.

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (4.0% vs. (E) 4.2%) and Industrial Production (5.6% vs. (E) 6.2%) both missed estimates while Retail Sales beat (3.7% vs. (E) 3.0%) leaving the outlook for Chinese growth still mixed (at best).

There were no notable political or geo-political updates over the weekend.

The focus of the data this week will be on economic growth and today we get the first look as June activity via the June Empire Manufacturing Index (E: -12.50).  Given recent worries about growth, the stronger this number, the better for the broader markets.

We also have three Fed speakers today, Williams (12:00 p.m. ET), Harker (1:0 p.m. ET) and Cook (11:00 p.m. ET) but again, given last week’s Fed meeting, they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, markets are closed on Wednesday for observance of Juneteenth (this is a recently new Federal holiday so I just want to make sure everyone was aware of the closure).

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Evidence That Investors Are Starting to Worry About Growth

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Evidence That Investors Are Starting to Worry About Growth: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Evidence That Investors Are Starting to Worry About Growth

Futures are moderately lower despite a slightly dovish Bank of Japan decision and more strong tech earnings (ADBE), as growing political anxiety in Europe weighed on markets.

French stocks dropped another 1% (down 5% on the week) on growing political uncertainty and that’s weighing on European markets and U.S. futures.

Today focus will remain on economic data and the notable report is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (E: 73.0).  But, more important than the consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report (1-Year Inflation Expectations E: 3.2%, Five-Year Inflation Expectations E: 3.0%) and markets will want to see stable consumer sentiment and better than expected inflation readings to rally.

We also have two Fed speakers today, Goolsbee (2:00 p.m. ET) and Cook (7:00 p.m. ET)., but they shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Good CPI and Mixed Fed Message Means for Markets

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What the Good CPI and Mixed Fed Message Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Yesterday’s Good CPI and Mixed Fed Messaging Means for Markets

Futures are little changed despite more positive tech earnings as markets digest Wednesday’s CPI driven rally.

Broadcom (AVGO) became the latest AI-linked tech company (after AAPL and ORCL) to post strong earnings as the stock is up 14% pre-market.

Economically, it was a mostly quiet night as EU Industrial Production slightly missed estimates (-0.1% vs. (E) 0.1%) but that isn’t moving markets.

Today focus will remain on economic data and the two notable reports are Jobless Claims (222k) and PPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.5% y/y).  Of the two, PPI is more important and if it is lower than expected that’ll strengthen the belief in disinflation and increase September rate cut expectations, and stocks should extend yesterday’s rally.

Additionally, we do get one Fed speaker today, Williams at 12:00 p.m. ET, and he is part of leadership so his commentary on rate cuts could move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.