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Highest Number of Dissents Among FOMC Members Since 1992 – Tom Essaye

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Monetary policy uncertainty, by itself, isn’t a bearish game changer says Tom Essaye

U.S. Dips Into Oil Reserves as Iran War Enters Its Third Month

Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting saw the highest number of dissents among voting FOMC members since 1992, leaving the market with limited conviction as to which direction the Fed will move policy rates in the coming months and quarters. Case in point, federal-funds futures have priced back in risks of rate hikes in 2027 (17.5% odds).

Monetary policy uncertainty, by itself, isn’t a bearish game changer that will derail the latest leg of this historic, respect-worthy stock market rally. But markets prefer to have a good idea of what lies ahead, particularly with regard to monetary policy, and the prior consensus view that the Fed is “on hold” for now with the eventual next change to policy rates being a rate cut, not a hike, is poised to be challenged by the latest run-hot economy showing up in the latest “hard data” reports.

And while a run-hot economy is widely preferred over either stagflation or sudden contraction, the uncertainty regarding rate policy will leave the risks of relatively violent bouts of market volatility increasingly elevated as we continue to navigate 2026. Tom Essaye

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

Futures are slightly higher despite mixed mega-cap tech earnings and negative headlines on Iran.

Mega-cap tech earnings aren’t moving markets as they were mixed and largely offset one another.

On Iran, reports continue to surface about an extended blockade of the Strait and that is boosting oil prices.

Today will be another busy day of economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) and given growing concerns about higher rates, this number needs to meet expectations.   Important growth metrics today include Advanced Q1 GDP (E: 2.1%) and Jobless Claims (E: 212K).

On earnings, it’s another important day and four reports we’re especially watching are: AAPL ($1.92), SNDK ($13.66), CAT ($4.55) and MA ($4.40) as they will give us insight into the state of AI and consumer/business spending.  As has been the case, the stronger the results, the better.

 

Sevens Report Alpha: How to Find Value When the Market Looks Fully Priced

In our latest Sevens Report Alpha issue, released Tuesday, we tackled a challenge many advisors face right now: helping clients see opportunity when major indexes are sitting at all-time highs. The report offers a framework for doing exactly that, including several underappreciated areas of the market we believe deserve a closer look.

This is not about chasing what has already worked. It is about identifying areas that may still offer attractive risk/reward and using that as a practical way to discuss opportunity with clients even in a market that feels expensive on the surface.

Learn more and start a risk-free Alpha trial: Sevens Report Alpha