What’s in Today’s Report:
- Market Multiple Table: Fork in the Road?
- S&P 500 Chart: 50-50 Chance of New Lows
- ISM Service Sector PMI
- OPEC+ Policy Meeting Takeaways
U.S. stock futures have rebounded from overnight losses amid a steadying bond market and mostly upbeat economic data out of Europe.
Economically, German Industrial Production and Italian Retail Sales were both notably better than feared while the Final Q2 Eurozone GDP came in at 0.8% vs. (E) 0.6%, all of which is helping ease concerns about an imminent recession in Europe.
Today, there is one economic report to watch in the morning: International Trade in Goods (E: -$70.5B) and the Fed will release their Beige Book in the afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET) that could shed some light on the Fed’s current view of the economy and inflation trends ahead of this month’s FOMC meeting.
Additionally, there are a few Fed speakers over the course of the day: Mester (10:00 a.m. ET), Brainard (11:55 a.m. ET), and Barr (2:00 p.m. ET). Investors will be most closely focused on commentary from Vice Chair Brainard with the September meeting coming into view.
Bottom line, if data is generally good, rhetoric from the Fed is not more hawkish than it has been lately, and the bond market continues to stabilize, the S&P 500 should be able to hold the critical 3,900 area. However, a break below would be notable and greatly increase the odds of a retest of the June lows.