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Why Tech Declined Again

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Tech Declined Again
  • New and Notable ETFs

Futures are little changed despite more mixed tech earnings.

GOOGL reported solid results but slightly underwhelming guidance while QCOM outright disappointed and both stocks are lower as tech sentiment remains uncertain.

Today the calendar is busy with a Bank of England Rate Decision (E: No Change) and ECB Rate Decision (E: No Change) before the open.

Economically, we have two labor reports via Jobless Claims (E: 212K) and JOLTS (E: 7.25M) and they key here is stability (meaning no substantial deterioration).  There is also one Fed speaker, Bostic (10:50 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues and the key report today is AMZN ($1.98) and the market could really use a strong report this afternoon.  Other notable reports include: COP ($1.08), BMY ($1.15), CMI ($5.20), CI ($7.87),   RBLX ($-0.49).

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Japan Having a “Liz Truss” Moment?
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Stock futures are modestly lower as yesterday’s robust relief rally is digested ahead of the release of a slew of delayed economic reports.

Economically, German GDP met estimates of +0.3% Y/Y but steadied in Q/Q terms, up from -0.2% to 0.0% in Q3.

Looking into today’s session, there is a long list of economic data due to be released including PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y), Retail Sales (E: -0.4%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 93.3), Pending Home Sales (E: -0.4), and Business Inventories (E: 0.2%).

No Fed officials are scheduled to speak (although some last-minute media interviews are possible), however there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and impact stocks, and the stronger the demand, the better for stocks (dovish money flows).

Finally, Q3 earnings continue to be released and noteworthy companies reporting today include BABA ($0.49), BBY ($1.31), ANF ($2.14), DELL ($2.26), WDAY ($0.90), and AMBA ($-0.40).

Bottom line, in order for yesterday’s relief rally to continue in thin holiday-week trading, markets will be looking for Goldilocks-to-strong economic data (not too strong to derail December rate cut bets, though) and stable to well-bid bond markets as a rebound in yields or resurgence in recession worries would pour cold water on yesterday’s risk-on money flows.

 

New ETFs to Watch and AI-Bubble Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • More Bubble Signs? OpenAI and NVDA Partnership
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are little changed as traders digest mixed EU Flash PMI data and await fresh comments from Fed Chair Powell today.

Economically, the EU Composite PMI Flash rose to 51.2 vs. (E) 50.9 with the Services Index notably rising to 51.4 vs. (E) 50.5 however the Manufacturing index disappointed.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch in the U.S., both of which will print shortly after the open: PMI Composite Flash (E: 53.0) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -10).

The Fed’s speaker circuit will remain fairly busy today with Bowman (9:00 a.m. ET) and Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET) speaking this morning before focus will turn to commentary from Powell (12:35 p.m. ET) mid-day.

Additionally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move bond yields and ultimately impact equities if there are any surprises regarding demand metrics (the stronger the demand the better for stocks).

Finally, some late season earnings reports continue to trickle in with notables reporting today including AZO ($50.52) and MU ($2.69).

 

Sevens Report: Tech Valuations Look Stretched Despite AI-Driven Leadership

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Massive demand for semiconductors and AI infrastructure fuels gains, but valuations raise sustainability concerns.

Tech Valuations Stretch as AI Boom Meets Investor Caution

According to the latest Sevens Report, “massive demand for semiconductors and AI infrastructure combined with the promise of AI driven leaps in profitability” have made technology the undisputed leader of the S&P 500’s advance.

But valuations now appear difficult to justify. Sevens highlighted Palantir as “the most obvious example,” calling it “a stock that is the best performer in the S&P 500 YTD but also trades at a quasi-absurd 212X forward earnings!” Even broad-based exchange-traded funds such as XLK are trading at “above 29X earnings, a level that hasn’t proven historically sustainable.”

Recent declines in AI-related names, driven by disappointing reactions to earnings at CoreWeave, Applied Materials and Cisco, provided a small relief to valuations. But Sevens warned that “the ‘bar’ to impress investors in the AI names is high.”

With rate cuts expected next month, investors are also rotating into more cyclical sectors such as utilities, industrials and financials. Still, finding value in technology remains a challenge for new money. “The reality is that finding value in the tech space is a challenge, especially for new money that needs to be allocated but doesn’t want to chase sky-high valuations,” Sevens said.

The report suggested that investors can still participate in the AI-driven rally while managing risk by using alternative ETF strategies. These include equal-weight and smart beta approaches, as well as income-focused ETFs that “boost yield, and in doing so lower the aggregate valuation of the ETF.”

“Alternative tech strategies that can complement core tech holdings can lower overall tech valuations in a client portfolio, yet still provide exposure to the key names in the space,” concluded Sevens.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on August 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Market’s Perspective on Peace Efforts in Ukraine
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are slightly lower amid a “sell-the-news” reaction to the lack of a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine after President Trump’s meetings with Putin and Zelensky.

There were no notable economic reports overnight leaving investors focused on geopolitics and retailer earnings.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.290M), and following yesterday’s soft Housing Market Index release, a soft number could weigh further on currently fragile, albeit still resilient, investor sentiment towards the economy.

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on conviction for a September Fed rate cut (the stronger the demand for the Bills, the better) while one Fed official is scheduled to speak in the afternoon: Bowman (2:10 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are some important retailer/consumer earnings this week with notables reporting today to include: HD ($4.71), MDT ($1.23), TOL ($3.59), SQM ($0.52). It will be important for earnings to continue to show consumer spending trends remain resilient, otherwise economic worries could weigh on markets this week.

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – A Rise in Job Openings Signals Resilient Labor Market

Stock futures have reversed from overnight losses to trade with moderate gains in the pre-market largely thanks to upbeat composite PMI data in Europe.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Final Composite PMI came in at 50.2 vs. (E) 49.5 mostly due to a better than expected Services Index component which firmed to 49.7 vs. the Flash print of 48.9.

Today, there are two more noteworthy domestic economic releases due to be released; the May ADP Employment Report (E: 110K) ahead of the open, and the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.0) shortly after the bell. Investors will be looking for more evidence of labor market resilience in the ADP release and evidence of strong consumer spending and preferably cooling inflation pressures in the ISM data.

There are two more Fed officials speaking today: Bostic & Cook (8:30 a.m. ET) but the narrative has not materially changed since the May Fed meeting and isn’t expected to as the Fed is set to remain data-dependent for the foreseeable future.

Finally, there are a few more noteworthy earnings releases today that could impact markets including DLTR ($1.19), FIVE ($0.83), and PVH ($2.23). As retail and consumer focused brands, any mention of weakness in consumer spending trends could pour cold water on the early June rally.

2025 Market Risks: Pullback Causers vs. Rally Killers

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Why Did Stocks Drop Last Week?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • 2025 Market Risks: Pullback Causers vs. Rally Killers

Futures are lower with EU shares as escalating geopolitical tensions are driving risk-off money flows this morning.

Overnight, Russian President Putin approved a doctrine that lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and shortly thereafter, Ukraine reportedly launched their first long-range ballistic missile attack on targets in Russia prompting risk-off/safe-haven money flows.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (CPI equivalent) was inline in October with a headline of 2.0% y/y and 2.7% y/y Core which did not materially move markets amid the geopolitical developments.

Today, the fluid geopolitical situation in between Russia and Ukraine will be in focus as the uncertainties surrounding the next steps in the conflict will likely drive risk-aversion until some degree of clarity emerges.

Domestically, there is one economic report due to be released: Housing Starts (1.3M) and two Fed speakers to watch: Goolsbee (12:25 p.m. ET) and Schmid (1:10 p.m. ET). Barring a big surprise in the data or any meaningfully dovish or hawkish changes in rhetoric, the data and Fed speakers will not likely move markets materially.

Finally, on the earnings front we will get quarterly results from WMT ($0.53), LOW ($2.81) and MDT ($1.24) today.

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Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies

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Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Government Shutdown Update
  • Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies
  • “Short-Volatility Trade” Update: Chart

Futures are little changed this morning as investors digest a hotter than expected inflation print out of Japan and still cautious gauge of consumer sentiment in Europe ahead of a busy day of economic data in the U.S.

Overnight, Japanese Core CPI fell to 3.5% vs. (E) 3.3% while the German GfK Consumer Climate Index edged up by a modest 0.7 points to -29.0 vs. (E) -29.6. Neither release was particularly positive for markets but futures are stable ahead of today’s domestic data.

Looking into today’s session, there are four economic reports to watch this morning: Durable Goods Orders (E: -4.5%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.2%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 115.0). Markets will want to see stability in the housing market data and easing but not collapsing growth and sentiment numbers in order for stocks to hold near the recently established record highs.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Yesterday’s 2-Yr and 5-Yr Note auctions were weak, putting upward pressure on yields and if today’s 7-Yr auction is weak as well, expect the benchmark 10-Yr yield to test the critical 4.30% level which could weigh on equity markets.

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Bitcoin ETF Primer (For Discussions With Clients)

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Bitcoin ETF Primer: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bitcoin ETF Primer (For Discussions With Clients)
  • Why the Hot CPI Report Didn’t Cause  A Larger Pullback

Futures are modestly lower following an increase in geopolitical tensions and subsequent 4% rally in oil.

The U.S. launched multiple missile strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen in response to the recent attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea and that’s increasing concerns about a broader conflict in the region.

Today focus will stay on inflation via PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 1.3% y/y) and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.0% y/y) and if we see hotter than expected numbers, look for some additional pressure on stocks.  We also have one Fed speaker today, Kashkari at 10:00 a.m. ET, although he shouldn’t move markets.

Additionally, today marks the start of earnings season and we get reports from major banks and a healthcare company today.  Reports we’re watching today include:  JPM ($3.73), BAC ($0.69), UNH ($5.98), BLK ($8.84), WFC ($1.16), C ($0.73), BK ($1.12).

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Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 20th, 2022

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Bitcoin and Stocks Are Falling Together Again. What’s to Blame.

Bitcoin’s moves definitely follow the market. There’s no question, and that’s been especially true on days when the market has been down a lot, Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, told Barron’s. Click here to read the full article.