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A Unique ETF Focused on Managing Tax Liabilities

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A Unique ETF Focused on Managing Tax Liabilities : Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Unique ETF Focused on Managing Tax Liabilities
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – Another Goldilocks Report

Futures are higher with tech shares leading thanks to solid earnings reports after the close yesterday as investors look past political turmoil overseas.

Politically, lawmakers in South Korea moved to impeach President Yoon for implementing martial law yesterday while the French government faces a no-confidence vote today. Neither situation is a material negative for markets but both are weighing on sentiment.

In corporate news, CRM and OKTA (a newer cloud software focused company) both posted solid earnings after the close yesterday which is bolstering the broader tech sector in premarket trade today.

Today, we will get two more important economic reports: The ADP Report (E: 165K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 55.5). Factory Orders (E: 0.4%) will also be released but is less likely to move markets than the first two data points.

The Fed’s Musalem is scheduled to speak at 8:45 a.m. ET, however the market’s main focus today will be Powell’s commentary (1:45 p.m. ET) as he could shed light on December rate cut plans or the policy rate path in 2025. Any hawkish surprise from the Fed Chair could spur volatility today.

Finally there is one notable earning release today from discount retailer DLTR ($1.07) that could offer insight into consumer spending habits.

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Tom Essaye Quoted in ETF Trends on May 24, 2021

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Why Are Commodities Having Such a Spectacular Year?

Commodities are the basic input for global growth and contribute and correlate with inflation. Consequently, related ETFs would typically…explained Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

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Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance on May 21, 2021

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Raw-Materials Boom Is Reordering the $6.3 Trillion ETF World

Commodities are an input to the global growth engine that tend to contribute to…according to Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

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Tom Essaye Quoted in ETF Trends on September 3, 2019

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“Going forward, stabilization in the U.S./China trade war is now the most important key to broader market stabilization,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, in a note. Click here to read the full article.

Green Shoots of A Global Reflation, September 13, 2017

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Are We Seeing “Green Shoots” of A Global Reflation?
• Chinese August CPI rose 1.8% yoy vs. (E) 1.7% yoy.
• British Core CPI rose 2.7% vs. (E) 2.5% yoy.

Takeaway

Are there “green shoots” of inflation? I reference the Bernanke comments regarding economic growth here, because very quietly we’ve seen two better-than-expected inflation numbers in two big economies (technically three if you count the uptick in Indian CPI, although that’s not widely followed).

August Chinese CPI beat (it came out Friday but couldn’t be priced in until markets opened on Monday) but it was the big uptick in core British CPI that saw the market extend the rally on Tuesday.

So, the logical question, given these two surprise beats is, “Will US CPI also surprise markets?”

The inclination is to believe in the trend, but to be clear, higher Chinese and British CPIs have no real bearing on US CPI—so strong numbers in those two reports don’t increase the likelihood of a strong CPI number.

But, if it comes, expect some potentially big market moves across Treasury yields, the dollar, and in stock
sector trading (banks and cyclicals will scream higher while defensives, including parts of tech, will likely badly lag). But again, that will depend on tomorrow’s number.

From a market standpoint, looking at the effects of the strong Chinese and British CPI, the clear ETF winner is…(withheld for subscribers only—unlock specifics and ETFs by signing up for a free two-week trial).

I continue to believe that an economic reflation (better growth, higher inflation) remains the key to a sustained US and global stock rally. And while two numbers don’t make a trend, they were the first positive surprises we’ve had on inflation in months, and we think that’s potentially very important (if it continues).

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