If the dollar and Treasury yields continue to trend higher, it is only a matter of time before gold retests the 2022 lows…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are down close to 1% on follow through selling from Friday as hopes of a near term “Fed Pivot” continue to fade in reaction to Powell’s speech last week.
European shares are also sharply lower as tightening expectations for the ECB rose sharply on Friday. Markets are now pricing in a minimum 50 bps hike next week with a 75 bps hike a real possibility.
There were no notable economic reports overnight.
Markets dropped on Friday as Powell dismissed the idea of an imminent “Fed Pivot,” but the ECB also signaled more hawkish intentions on Friday, and it was the two events that combined to cause the ugly declines. Today there are no economic reports but there is an important Fed speaker, Brainard (2:15 p.m. ET) and if she echoes Powell’s comments from Friday, expect more losses in stocks.
For oil’s drop, it’s mostly a demand story. If you see oil move into the high to mid 70s, people are going rethink the idea that these companies are cash flow-generating machines, Essaye said. Click here to read the full article.
Demand concerns are now the dominant influence on the global energy market and even though supply worries will persist with the Russia-Ukraine war, we will need to see evidence of demand stabilizing for the oil market to begin to find a near-term bottom,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote. Click here to read the full article.
Demand concerns are now the dominant influence on the global energy market and even though supply worries will persist with the Russia-Ukraine war, we will need to see evidence of demand stabilizing for the oil market to begin to find a near-term bottom,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading cautiously higher this morning as geopolitical angst is easing after Pelosi’s departure from Taiwan while economic data was mostly positive overnight.
Chinese and EU Composite PMIs for July topped estimates while Eurozone PPI was no worse than feared and that data is helping some of the hawkish fears from Tuesday unwind.
Looking into today’s session, earnings season is beginning to wind down but there are still a few notable reports due out today: MRNA ($4.50), CVS ($2.16), YUM ($1.08), HOOD (-$0.36), EBAY ($0.89), and MGM ($0.24).
However, the market’s main focus will be on economic data today with ISM Services Index (E: 53.0) and Factory Orders (E: 1.1%) both due out shortly after the open while there is one Fed speaker: Harker (10:30 a.m. ET).
Investors will want to see still solid growth numbers in the data, further easing in inflation readings, and hopefully a less hawkish tone out of the Fed if the July relief rally is going to extend into August.
Our technical view of oil has now shifted from cautiously bullish to neutral with rising risks to the downside, especially after WTI closed below that aforementioned support at the March and April double bottom lows ($95.18) for a second time in a week yesterday. Wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher following a solid night of earnings.
AAPL (up 2%) and AMZN (up 12%) both beat estimates and that’s helping to extend this week’s rally.
Eurozone inflation came in slightly hotter than expected, as EU HICP rose 8.9% yoy vs. (E ) 8.8% yoy, but stronger than expected earnings are helping the market look past the slightly hot number.
Today the focus will be on inflation as we get three notable inflation readings: Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.5% m/m, 4.7% y/y), Employment Cost Index (E: 1.1%), and the University of Michigan Five Year Inflation Expectations (E: 2.8%). Markets have aggressively priced in a near term peak in inflation, and the data needs to start to confirm that, starting today. If these inflation stats run hot, don’t be surprised to see stocks decline.
On the earnings front, the season is starting to wind down but there are still a few more days of notable results. Some reports we’re watching today include: XOM ($3.80), CVX ($5.02), PG ($1.23) and CL ($0.71).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower on disappointing earnings and the increased probability of higher corporate taxes.
Earnings from META, QCOM, and others disappointed and that’s reversing some of Wednesday’s tech-driven gains.
Senate Democrats agreed on a smaller Build Back Better bill that includes some corporate tax increases, although it’s still not clear when this becomes law.
Today will be a busy day from a data and earnings standpoint. Economically, Jobless Claims (E: 249K) is the key report and if it moves considerably above 250k that will signal further deterioration in the labor market. We also get Preliminary Q2 GDP (E: 0.5%) and as we said yesterday, don’t be shocked if it’s negative and you hear a lot of recession commentary.
On the earnings front, today is an important day and the key reports will be: PFE ($1.72), MA ($2.36), AAPL ($1.14), AMZN ($0.15), INTC ($0.69).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are modestly lower on soft retailer earnings from yesterday as focus turns to the July FOMC meeting.
WMT is down 9% in pre-market trading after the retail giant slashed its profit outlook, citing inflation pressures on consumers which is driving risk-off money flows in pre-market trade amid a resurgence in recession fears.
Today, investors will begin to look ahead to tomorrow’s Fed announcement as the FOMC meeting begins this morning however there are also several important economic reports including: Case-Shiller House Price Index (E: 1.6%), Consumer Confidence (E: 96.8), New Home Sales (E: 664K), and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -10).
Earnings season also continues to pick up today with UPS ($3.14), KO ($0.67), GM ($1.40), GE ($0.38), and MCD ($2.46) reporting ahead of the bell while MSFT ($2.28), GOOGL ($1.28), and V ($1.74) will release results after the close.