Powell’s comments before the Senate Tuesday “sent the clear message that economic data in the near term will be critical for the decision-making process on the pace of future rate hikes and eventually the terminal rate,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are tracking global shares higher this morning as investors cheer better than expected economic data out of China.
Economically, China’s Manufacturing PMI jumped to 51.6 vs. (E) 49.9 in February, up from 49.2 in January, indicating the recovery process is gaining momentum. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, meanwhile, met estimates at 48.5.
Today, investor focus will be on economic data early beginning in Europe with the German CPI release at 8:00 a.m. ET (E: 8.7%). So far this week, European yields have led global yields higher on hot inflation data and if the German print is above estimates, expect that trend to continue and stocks to remain under pressure.
In the U.S. we will get the February ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 48.0) as well as the lesser followed Construction Spending report (E: 0.2%). Investors will want to see improving, but not overly strong growth metrics and fading price pressures to see some of the recent hawkish money flows ease.
Finally, there is one Fed speaker today: Kashkari (E: 9:00 a.m. ET), and as a voting member of the FOMC, his comments will be closely watched for any new hints at the Fed’s policy plans.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower mostly on positioning ahead of the Core PCE Price Index release but also in reaction to disappointing EU economic data.
German GDP underwhelmed and fell –0.4% vs. (E) -0.2% while Gfk Consumer Climate also slightly missed estimates (-30.5 vs. (E) -30.4).
Today, focus will be on inflation and the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.4% m/m, 4.3% y/y). We have a full Core PCE Price Index preview in the Report, but generally speaking, if the numbers are below expectations, it’ll spark a rally, if they are around expectations that’s mostly priced in, and if Core PCE is higher than last month, prepare for a selloff.
Other data today includes Personal Incomes and Outlays (E: 1.0%, 1.2%), , New Home Sales (E: 617K) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 66.4), but barring a move in five year inflation expectations above 3% none of those reports should move markets.
Finally, we also have two Fed speakers today, Mester (10:15 a.m. ET) and Collins (1:30 p.m. ET).
The U.S. Energy Information Administration data so far this year has been “consistently bearish and pointed to sluggish consumer demand, hesitant refining activity, sizeable builds in oil stockpiles and incrementally rising domestic oil production,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Thursday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
The release plans were part of a congressional-mandate related to annual budgets that has been in place for almost a decade, Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. But “when traders see an SPR release headline cross the wires, they think ‘more supply on the market’ and hit the sell button first and ask questions later.” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are flat following a quiet night and as solid CSCO earnings are helping stocks hold yesterdays’ gains.
CSCO beat estimates and raised guidance and the stock is up 4% pre-market and that’s helping broader sentiment.
Economically, the only notable number was the Chinese Home Price Index (in-line at –1.5%).
Today focus will remain on economic data and the key reports are (in order of importance): Philly Fed (E: -7.2), PPI (E: 0.4%m/m, 5.5% y/y), Jobless Claims (E: 200K) and Housing Starts (E: 1.365M). As has been the case, solid data that implies a “No Landing’ scenario should support stocks, as long as yields don’t spike too much.
We also have several Fed speakers today including Mester (8:45 a.m. ET), Bullard (1:30 p.m. ET) and Cook (4:00 p.m. ET) although they shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are modestly higher thanks to good economic data overnight as traders await today’s U.S. CPI report and more Fed speak.
Economically, the U.K.’s Unemployment Rate held steady below 4% but wage growth favorably slowed to 5.9% in January from 6.5% in December.
Meanwhile the NFIB Small Business Optimistic Index in the U.S. met estimates at 90.3 which saw S&P 500 futures hit new pre-market highs at the top of the 6:00 a.m. hour ET.
Today, focus will be on economic data early with CPI (E: 0.5% m/m, 6.2% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 5.5% y/y) due out before the opening bell. Cooling inflation pressures have largely been priced in recently so a low print could see stocks add to YTD gains, but the risk is for a hot print to spark a significant wave of selling amid further hawkish shifting money flows across asset classes.
Moving through the day, there are three Fed speakers to watch: Logan (11:00 a.m. ET), Harker (1:00 p.m. ET), and Williams (2:05 p.m. ET) and they will all likely echo the hawkish tone coming from other Fed officials recently but their comments should not have a major impact on markets.
Earnings season is winding down but a few notable companies reporting today include: KO ($0.45), MAR ($1.84), ABNB ($0.27).
The data, however, also showed “some evidence of improving consumer demand for refined products,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, with the four-week moving average of gasoline supplied up by just over 200,000 barrels a day to 8.3 million barrels a day. Click here to read the full article.
Now, Tom says, that ‘bear market rally’ is complete—having fooled enough people into thinking the bear market was over—and predicts more volatility and turbulence ahead with the big moves in tech to lead the major US indices lower. Click here to listen to the full interview.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are enjoying a moderate bounce overnight thanks to slightly better than expected inflation data and earnings.
German CPI rose less than expected (8.7% vs. (E) 9.1%) and that’s helping to slightly calm fears of a bounce back in inflation.
Earnings overnight were also solid as DIS beat estimates and it’s fair to say this earnings season has been not as bad as feared.
Focus will remain on economic data and the only notable report today is Jobless Claims (E: 190K). Holiday effects should be working their way out of these numbers so investors will want to see claims begin to rise over the coming weeks, otherwise it’ll imply the labor market remains much, much too tight (and that means more potential future rate hikes).
Earnings season is winding down but some notable reports today include: PM ($1.29), PYPL ($1.20), LYFT ($0.13).