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Final Election Preview (Scenarios & Key Races to Watch)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Final Election Preview (Scenarios & Key Reaces to Watch)

Futures are slightly lower on a rebound in oil and following more disappointing tech earnings.

The U.S. struck Iran’s Qeshm Island overnight in a “small, defensive” attack and oil prices are up 2% as a result, although the operation hasn’t derailed current diplomatic progress.

On earnings, AAPL (-3% pre-open) and PLTR (-8% pre-open) both had underwhelming results, extending tech weakness (the key remains whether the “rest” of the market can hold up despite tech declines and so far, it has).

Today focus will remain primarily on geopolitics and any additional reports of progress between the U.S. and Iran will pressure oil and should further support stocks (especially the “rest” of the market).

Away from geopolitics, we do get one notable economic report, JOLTS (E: 7.134 million) and the closer to the consensus estimate, the better.

Finally, earnings season continues and that includes more important tech results.  Reports we’re watching today include AMD ($1.68), AMGN ($5.74), SHOP ($0.33), PFE ($0.72), MPC ($25.74), BKNG ($4.48).

 

Election Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Thoughts on the Friday/Monday Rally
  • Election Preview

Stock futures are flat following a mostly quiet night of news as traders begin to look ahead to tonight’s debate between President Trump and former VP Biden.

The only economic release o/n was Eurozone Economic Sentiment which beat on the headline (91.1 vs. E: 89.5) but had soft details which is weighing modestly on EU shares.

House Democrats presented a $2.2T relief bill late yesterday but realistically it will not be passed before election day, and therefore is not having a significant impact on markets this morning.

Today, there are two economic reports, the latter of which will be more important to watch: Case-Shiller House Price Index (E: -0.1%) and Consumer Confidence (E: 88.8) while there is just one Fed official scheduled to speak (twice): Williams (9:15 a.m. & 1:00 p.m. ET).

With the debate looming tonight, the focus will be on politics and the latest attempt at a stimulus bill by Congress. And barring any unexpected progress on getting a stimulus deal done in the very near term, markets are lining up to have a relatively quiet session today.