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Why Stocks Dropped (Two Main Reasons)

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Why Stocks Dropped (Two Main Reasons): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped (Two Main Reasons)
  • Jobs Day (Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview)

Futures are modestly higher following “ok” earnings from major tech firms overnight and ahead of the jobs report.

AMZN and INTC posted solid earnings while AAPL results were only mildly disappointing and the cumulative reports are boosting futures this morning.

Economically, the UK manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 vs. (E) 50.3, keeping BOE rate cut expectations elevated.

Today focus will be on economic data, starting with the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  106K Job-Adds, 4.1% UE Rate, 4.0% y/y Wage Growth.  The jobs report isn’t the only important report today, however, as we also get the October ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.6).

Bottom line, both numbers need to come in close to expectations to help stocks extend this morning’s early bounce.  Data this week has been a bit “hot” and it’s pushed Treasury yields higher and Fed rate cut expectations lower and that’s weighed on stocks.  In-line reports this morning would be Goldilocks and would reverse that trend (and further fuel this morning’s bounce).

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Jobs Report Preview (Will It Decide Rate Cuts?)

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Jobs Report Preview (Will It Decide Rate Cuts?): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Will It Decide Rate Cuts?)

Futures are moderately lower following disappointing earnings from MSFT and META overnight.

META and MSFT are both lower by around 3% following disappointing earnings results (META) and guidance (MSFT) and that’s weighing on futures.

Economically, EU inflation was a bit hotter than expected as EU HICP (their CPI) rose 2.7% y/y vs. (E) 2.6% y/y.

Today will be a busy day of economic data and earnings.  On the economy, the two key reports are Jobless Claims (E: 235K) and the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and markets will want in-line readings on both to reinforce recent Goldilocks growth and inflation data.

On earnings, there are three major reports after the close:  AAPL ($1.49), AMZN ($1.14) and INTC ($-0.02).

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Why the Next Two Weeks Are So Important For This Market

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Why the Next Two Weeks Are So Important For This Market: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Next Two Weeks Are So Important For This Market
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Magnificent Seven Earnings and Important Economic Data
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday

Futures are sharply higher following two market-positive geo-political.

In the Mid-East, the Israeli’s response to the Iranian missile attacks was smaller than expected and is viewed as a de-escalation, as oil is down 6% on falling geo-political risks.

In Japan, the ruling LDP party lost its majority in Parliament and looming political gridlock should further delay any BOJ rate hikes (Japanese stocks rose nearly 2% on the news).

Today there are no notable economic reports but as long as oil keeps dropping, the early rally should continue. Finally, earnings season continues and some reports we’ll be watching today include: ON (0.97), F (0.49), WM ($1.86).

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Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

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 Boeing’s loss this quarter is breathtaking: Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

Boeing (BA) Plummets on Double Earnings Miss

The size of Boeing’s (BA) loss this quarter is “breathtaking,” says Tom Essaye, going on to call the numbers “horrific.” But, he adds, what’s important is how well they execute on their recovery plan. Nicolas Owens notes the recent machinist strike cost Boeing billions of dollars, and that the new CEO is looking for “fundamental culture change.”

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on October 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Why Are Utilities the Best-Performing Sector YTD?

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Why Are Utilities the Best-Performing Sector YTD?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Utilities the Best Performing Sector YTD?
  • Chart: 10-Yr Yields Test 3-Month Highs – A Renewed Headwind for Stocks

U.S. stock futures are extending yesterday’s losses in premarket trade this morning, led lower by small-caps as Treasury yields continue to test multi-month highs amid a higher-for-longer Fed policy outlook.

Economically, the only notable release overnight was Hong Kong’s CPI which picked up modestly in September, rising to 0.1% from 0.0% in August (2.2% y/y), but that is not moving markets today.

There are no notable economic reports today and just one Fed speaker on the calendar: Harker (10:00 a.m. ET).

The light economic calendar will leave trader focus on earnings with: VZ ($1.18), MMM ($1.93), GM ($2.50), GE ($1.13), LMT ($6.47), and FCX ($0.40) all reporting quarterly results before the bell while STX ($1.50) and TXN ($1.36), both of which are tech-proxies, will report after the closing bell.

Beyond earnings, Treasury yields will also be in focus today as the sharp, double-digit rise in the 10-Yr yield presented a significant headwind on broader equity markets yesterday. If yields continue higher, expect stocks to have a hard time stabilizing today.

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A market that remains firmly anchored by two key beliefs

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A market that remains firmly anchored by two key beliefs: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Why don’t stocks drop on bad news?

As per analysts at Sevens Report, this resilience reflects a market that remains firmly anchored by two key beliefs: economic growth will remain stable, and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates—conditions that continue to support bullish sentiment despite growing risks.

Additionally, jobless claims surged to summer highs, suggesting some softening in the labor market. “However, that number was inflated by the Boeing strike and by unemployment related to the damage from Hurricane Helene in Florida and North Carolina,” the analysts said.

Sevens Report argues that part of the reason stocks haven’t wavered is that the risks, while real, haven’t yet materialized in ways that challenge the underlying narrative of a soft landing.

“The ‘burden of proof’ remained squarely on the bears,” the analysts said, no single negative development has been powerful enough to shift market sentiment away from expectations for stable growth and falling rates.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on October 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A soft landing remains, by far, the most likely outcome for the economy

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A soft landing remains, by far, the most likely outcome for the economy: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Courthousenews.com

Dow Jones, S&P hit fresh highs in wake of good retail data

“A soft landing remains, by far, the most likely outcome for the economy as important economic data strengthened across multiple fronts over the past month,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report wrote in an investor’s note on Friday morning.

“Now, to be clear, this doesn’t mean that a hard landing can’t happen (or won’t happen), but it is not happening right now and there are few conclusive signals that it’s going to happen, at least at this point,” he continued.

Also, click here to view the full article on Courthousenews.com published on October 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard (October Update)

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Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard (October Update): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard (October Update)

Futures are slightly higher thanks to better-than-expected Chinese economic data and more solid tech earnings.

Chinese Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment both beat estimates, boosting investor sentiment towards China.

On earnings, NFLX beat estimates and is the second straight big tech company to post solid results.

Today we have one economic report, Housing Starts (1.400M) and several Fed speakers, including Bostic (9:30 a.m. & 12:30 p.m. ET), Kashkari (10:00 a.m. ET) and Waller (12:10 p.m. ET).  With recent data stronger than expectations, if today’s Fed officials (including Waller) reinforce their desire for two rate cuts that will be an incremental positive.

Earnings season also continues to roll on and today we get notable reports from AXP (E: $3.27), PG (E: $1.90) and RF (E: $0.53).

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Earnings Offer Mixed Economic Signals

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Earnings Offer Mixed Economic Signals: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Giving a More Mixed Economic View (Although It’s Still Early)
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index Takeaways
  • Insight from Oil’s Early Week Collapse

U.S. futures are steady as yesterday’s pullback is digested while overseas markets were mostly lower overnight after ASML’s downbeat guidance weighed on global tech shares and LVMH earnings rekindled concerns about consumers.

Economically, UK Core CPI favorably fell 0.4% to 3.2% vs. (E) 3.5% in September, bolstering BoE rate cut bets.

Today, there is one second-tiered inflation report to watch: Import & Export Prices (E: -0.3%, -0.4%), but barring a big surprise one way or another it is not likely to move markets.

Additionally, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. A strong auction would be received as dovish and help stocks and other risk assets stabilize in the midst of increasingly hawkish Fed policy expectations in recent weeks.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but earnings season continues to pick up with results being released by several big financials: MS ($1.57), CFG ($0.79), SYF ($1.77), DFS ($3.29) and a few more economically-sensitive companies PPG ($2.15), CSX ($0.48).

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Tom Essaye Interviewed On Yahoo Finance’s Morning Brief

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A slowing economy does not necessarily mean a recession: Tom Essaye Interviewed On Yahoo Finance

Economic, geopolitical risks could be rude awakening for market

“I want everybody to realize that a slowing economy does not necessarily mean a recession, but where stocks are right now, if growth even slows to sort of flat or sub 1%, you could see a 10% drop in the S&P 500, and we wouldn’t even be probably at fair value,” Sevens Report Research founder and president Tom Essaye tells Seana Smith and Brad Smith on the Morning Brief.’

“So look, things are good right now, but I do think the market is complacent to economic slowdown risks.”

Essaye has been “advocating for focusing on quality and lowering volatility” through ETFs, and views geopolitical risks to be a chief concern at the moment.

“And then also there’s going to be a lot of political uncertainty coming out of the election, because we’re all going to be trying to game what policy changes are going to occur. All of these things can combine to sort of fracture this perfect window we’re in in the markets,” Essay explains. “All I’m trying to do is remind investors that, hey, there are risks out there and that… the stock market can go two directions as well.”

Also, click here to view the full interview with Yahoo Finance published on October 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.