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Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

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Very Lofty Valuations: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

These five market assumptions are ‘aggressively optimistic’ – Sevens Report

Sevens Research said the S&P 500 is starting 2024 trading at “a very lofty” 19.5X valuation. While they don’t believe the valuation is unjustified, they do believe it makes several key, positive assumptions about critical market influences in the coming year.

Sevens argues that while the market assumptions “aren’t necessarily wrong,” the “assumptions are aggressively optimistic, and it is how events unfold versus these expectations and not on an absolute scale that will determine how stocks and bonds trade to start the year.”

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on January 2nd, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Important (and still undecided) Questions About Economic Growth

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Markets Have Priced In The Dovish Pivot: Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

Bitcoin inches higher after outperforming stocks this year

“Looking forward, we can expect markets to get back to ‘normal’ next week as we start a new year and answer some pretty important (and still undecided) questions about economic growth, actual vs. expected Fed policy, and earnings,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said. 

Also, click here to view the full Blockworks article published on December 29th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Happy New Year

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Happy New Year: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Happy New Year

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news and ahead of the final trading day of the year.

Economically there was more evidence of global disinflation overnight as South Korea’s Core CPI fell to 2.8% vs. (E) 2.9% while Spain’s Core CPI also declined to 3.8% from 4.5%.

Geo-politically, there were no significant events overnight and the number of ships transiting the Suez Canal is rising again although tensions remain high.

Today there is one economic report, the Chicago PMI (E: 50.0), but barring a massive drop that shouldn’t move markets and we’d expect a mostly quiet trading on the final day of a good year in the markets and ahead of a long weekend.   From all of us at Sevens Report Research please have a happy and safe New Year.

Sevens Report Q4 ’23 Quarterly Letter

The Q4 2023 Quarterly Letter will be delivered to advisor subscribers on Tuesday, January 2nd.

The S&P 500 will end 2023 close to all-time highs but the Santa rally has left many investors complacent towards risks in 2024.  Showing clients and prospects a balanced view of markets is an opportunity to differentiate yourself from your competition and strengthen client relationships!

We will deliver the letter on the first business day of the quarter because we want you to be able to send your quarterly letter before your competition (and with little to no work from you).

You can view our Q3 ’23 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter, and Technicals.

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products. If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Thoughts for 2024

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Thoughts for 2024: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Thoughts for 2024 (The Benefit of Staying in the Middle)

Futures are flat following a quiet night of news as investors look ahead to the looming three day weekend.

Economically, there were two Japanese economic reports, both of which best estimates.  Japanese Industrial Production fell less than expected (-0.9% vs. (E) -1.7%) while Retail Sales rose more than expected (1.0% vs. 0.1%).

Geo-politically, there was no new news overnight, but tensions remain elevated in the Mid-East.

With the long weekend looming we should expect another quiet trading day although there are two notable economic reports today:  Jobless Claims (E: 210k) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.8%).  However, given the calendar, it’d take substantial negative surprises from either metric to materially move markets and that’s very unlikely.

Sevens Report Q4 ’23 Quarterly Letter

The Q4 2023 Quarterly Letter will be delivered to advisor subscribers on Tuesday, January 2nd.

The S&P 500 will end 2023 close to all-time highs but the Santa rally has left many investors complacent towards risks in 2024.  Showing clients and prospects a balanced view of markets is an opportunity to differentiate yourself from your competition and strengthen client relationships!

We will deliver the letter on the first business day of the quarter because we want you to be able to send your quarterly letter before your competition (and with little to no work from you).

You can view our Q3 ’23 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter, and Technicals.

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products. If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Two Important Differences in 2024

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Why Last Week’s Price Action is Important for 2024: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Important Differences in 2024

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news as there was no notable economic data or significant market moving events.

Chinese industrial profits rose 29.5% in November, accelerating substantially from the 2.7% gain in October and offering some anecdotal optimism about future growth.

Geo-political tensions remained elevated in the Mid-East following increased attacks on U.S. troops in the region, but no specific escalation occurred overnight.

Today the most notable event is a five-year Treasury bond auction and markets will want to see strong demand (like we saw at yesterday’s two-year auction) to keep rates drifting lower and dovish Fed/lower rates momentum in place through year-end.

Sevens Report Q4 ’23 Quarterly Letter

The Q4 2023 Quarterly Letter will be delivered to advisor subscribers on Tuesday, January 2nd.

The S&P 500 will end 2023 close to all-time highs but the Santa rally has left many investors complacent towards risks in 2024.  Showing clients and prospects a balanced view of markets is an opportunity to differentiate yourself from your competition and strengthen client relationships!

We will deliver the letter on the first business day of the quarter because we want you to be able to send your quarterly letter before your competition (and with little to no work from you).

You can view our Q3 ’23 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter, and Technicals.

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products. If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

S&P 500 Market Multiple Levels Chart

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S&P 500 Market Multiple Levels Chart: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • S&P 500 Market Multiple Targets – December Update (Shareable PDF Available)
  • Housing Market Update: Where Are the Declines?
  • Housing Starts Come in “Hot” – Chart

Stock futures are modestly lower and bond yields are continuing to fall. As cooler-than-expected European inflation data o/n has investors weighing simmering recession fears.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell from 4.6% to 3.9% vs. (E) 4.3% in November while German PPI was down -7.9% vs. (E) -7.5%. The data is being digested by some as “too cold”. This is causing renewed recession worries which is weighing on risk assets this morning.

Today, we will get two economic reports in the morning: Consumer Confidence (E: 103.4) and Existing Home Sales (E: 3.775 million). The market will want to see more signs of a resilient consumer to reaffirm soft landing hopes and keep recession fears contained.

Finally, in the afternoon there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could shed light on how sustainable the bond market rally is. There is a risk that a weak auction outcome could pour some cold water on bonds and lead to some profit taking in equities ahead of more critical economic data due in the back half of the week.

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter, and Technicals.

We’ve been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2023 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products. If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Table: December Update

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Market Multiple Table: December Update: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – December Update (Unbranded Copy Available)
  • Chart – 10-Yr Yield Violates Long-Term Uptrend, 2023 Lows in Focus

Stock futures are slightly higher and bond yields are falling modestly this morning. This is as traders digest a dovish BOJ decision and largely in-line Eurozone inflation report.

The Bank of Japan left their benchmark policy rate unchanged at -0.10%. With no hint of a January rate hike sending the yen down >1% and the Nikkei up nearly 1.5% overnight.

Economically, the Eurozone HICP Narrow-Core inflation rate favorably fell from 4.2% to 3.6% last month, meeting estimates.

Looking at today’s potential market catalysts, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.360 million), and two Fed officials are to speak: Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET) and Goolsbee (6:00 p.m. ET).

Lastly, as long as the housing market data is not a big shock, the release shouldn’t move markets this morning while Bostic’s comments will be closely watched to see if he joins Daly and others from the Fed in acknowledging concerns about the labor market (which would add a dovish tailwind).

multiple

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter, and Technicals.

We’ve been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2023 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products. If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why the Bar for the Fed to Be Hawkish Is High

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Why the Bar for the Fed to Be Hawkish Is High: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Bar for the Fed to Be Hawkish Is High
  • What the CPI Report Means for Markets

Futures are slightly higher despite soft economic data, as markets await the Fed decision later this afternoon.

Economically, data from the UK and the EU was bad and is slightly increasing growth concerns.   UK monthly GDP  and UK & EU Industrial Production all missed estimates.

Chinese growth concerns also rose as China declared industrial development as the #1 economic priority, potentially signaling less economic stimulus in 2024.

Today focus will be on the FOMC decision (2:00 p.m. ET, No change to rates expected) and the keys are the 2024 dot (does it show 50 bps of cuts?) and whether Powell slams the door on the idea of rate cuts (or leaves it slightly open).  In addition to the Fed, we also get another important inflation reading via PPI (E: 0.1% 1.0%). A further decline will be peripherally positive for markets.

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter, and Technicals.

We’ve been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2023 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products. If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Are GLP-1 Drugs and Why Do They Matter to Markets?

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What Are GLP-1 Drugs and Why Do They Matter to Markets? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Are GLP-1 Drugs and Why Do They Matter to Markets?

U.S. equity futures are trading lower this morning as a credit downgrade of China’s debt is overshadowing mostly good Composite PMI data overseas.

Overnight, Moody’s cut their outlook for Chinese debt to negative. This weighed on Asian shares and EM stocks, as well as domestic equity futures.

Economically, China’s Composite PMI favorably rose to 51.6 vs. (E) 50.1 in November. While the Eurozone Composite PMI remained in contraction, but notably firmed to 47.6 vs. (E) 47.1 last month.

Two key economic reports to watch today: JOLTS (E: 9.4 million job openings) and the ISM Services Index (E: 52.4). Investors will want to see more evidence that supports a soft landing in the data.

Finally, there is one Fed economist speaking today: Gibson (10:00 a.m. ET) but his comments should not materially move markets.

What Are GLP-1 Drugs and Why Do They Matter to Markets?

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter, and Technicals.

We’ve recently been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2023 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products. If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report product), please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Bull vs. Bear Case (Part 1 of 3)

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Bull vs. Bear Case (Part 1 of 3): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Bull vs. Bear Case – What the Bulls Think Will Happen

Futures are flat with the 10-Yr yield hovering near 4.40% as traders await a slew of Fed speak and fresh economic data.

Economic data overnight was mildly disappointing. As Australian Retail Sales, the German GfK Consumer Climate report and Eurozone M3 Money Supply all missed estimates.

Looking into the U.S. session, there are a few second-tiered economic reports to watch today: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.7%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.4%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 101.5), but none are likely to move markets ahead of the key inflation data due out Thursday.

Additionally, there are several Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Goolsbee, Waller, Bowman, and Barr. If any of them strike a materially hawkish tone or stray from the “soft landing” outlook narrative, it could weigh on stocks today.

Finally, there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. If the results are weak and yields move higher, expect that to be a headwind for equities today. Conversely, a strong auction could push rates to new lows and power stocks higher into the end of the month.

Bull vs. Bear Case

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.