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CPI Preview: Good, Bad, & Ugly

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • CPI Preview: Good, Bad, & Ugly
  • WTI Crude Oil Chart – Futures Pinned In Tight Range at $80/bbl

Stock futures are rising in sympathy with overseas markets on the back of dovish commentary by new BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and favorable economic data overnight that is easing “hard landing” worries.

Economically, Chinese CPI rose just 0.7% vs. (E) 1.1% and PPI dropped -2.5% vs. (E) -2.3% while Eurozone Retail Sales fell -3.0% vs. (E) -3.5%. In the U.S., the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 90.1 vs. (E) 89.0. The mostly better than expected data is helping rekindle hopes that a soft landing may be achieved.

There are no other notable economic reports today which will leave focus on a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and the sole Fed speaker today: Goolsbee (1:30 p.m. ET) as traders are largely looking ahead to tomorrow’s CPI report.

Analysts at Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch on April 6th, 2023

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Oil tallies a third straight weekly gain after OPEC+ production cuts

“Bottom line, the fundamental dynamics of the oil market changed this week with OPEC+’s announced production cut, which they said was geared towards regaining control of the markets and spooking speculators out of the market,” said analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note. Click here to read the full article.

Jobs Report Preview (Two Sided Risks)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview:  Two Sided Risks
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Update
  • Why Yesterday’s Service PMI was a Negative for Markets

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news as markets digest this week’s underwhelming economic data ahead of the jobs report and long weekend.

Economic data overnight was better than expected as the Chinese Composite PMI beat estimates (57.8 vs. (E) 55.0) as did German Industrial Production (2.0% vs. (E) 0.0%).

Regional banks remained stable overnight following WAL’s update on deposit statistics yesterday.

Today focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 201K) and a speech by Fed president Bullard (10:00 a.m. ET).  Investors will want to see claims move higher, above 200k, to signal some moderation in the labor market, while we can expect Bullard to be hawkish, although keep in mind he does not represent the consensus at the FOMC (and as such his comments shouldn’t move markets, unless they’re a dovish surprise).

Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes on March 30th, 2023

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Dow Jumps 200 Points As Lack Of ‘Drama’ Spurs Gains

“To say a lot has transpired in the markets over the past three weeks would be an understatement,” Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye wrote in a Thursday note to clients. Click here to read the full article.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case Part II (Tactical Ideas and My Opinion)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bull Case vs. the Bear Case Part II (Tactical Ideas and My Opinion)

Futures are little changed as global inflation and regional bank liquidity stress both remain elevated.

The Fed’s balance sheet shrank slightly as discount window borrowing dropped –22 bln. while BTFP lending increased 10.7 bln. as bank liquidity stress didn’t get much worse, but it didn’t get much better, either.

On inflation, EU HICP fell to 6.9% from 8.5% y/y, but core HICP rose to 5.7% from 5.6%, reflecting still sticky inflation.

For the final day of the first quarter focus will be on inflation and specifically the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.4%, 4.7%) and investors need to see that number at or below expectations to further the “Fed Pivot” idea that’s supporting stocks.  We also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 63.4) and the five-year inflation expectations and there’s one Fed speaker Williams (3:05 p.m. ET).  As mentioned, if the data and Williams support the “Fed Pivot” idea, stocks can extend the rally.  If they refute that idea, stocks could give back some of the recent gains.

The Bull Case vs. the Bear Case

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Bull Case vs. the Bear Case
  • Weekly Oil Update and EIA Analysis

Futures are modestly higher and are extending Wednesdays’ gains following better than expected inflation data overnight.

Spanish CPI, which was the first inflation indicator to warn of the stall in disinflation, rose just 3.3% y/y, less than the 3.8% expectation and much lower than the 6% y/y reading last month. That’s offering some initial hope that disinflation has restarted.

Today focus will be on economic data, with Jobless Claims (E: 195K) the key report, although we also get the Final Q4 GDP (E: 2.7%).  There are also two Fed speakers today, including Collins (12:45 p.m. ET) and Barkin (12:45 p.m. ET) and markets will look for additional confirmation that the Fed has finally pivoted.

The True Indicator of Banking Stress

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The True Indicator of Banking Stress
  • Case Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence: Charts

Stock futures are trading solidly higher with overseas markets following some positive bank headlines out of Europe and strong price action in Asian tech shares.

BABA announced a corporate restructuring plan that sent shares higher by 14% overnight, boosting sentiment across Asian equity markets and buoying U.S. equity futures with tech leading the way higher.

In Europe, it was reported that UBS has brought back former CEO Sergio Ermotti to oversee the CS takeover which is further easing some of the angst surrounding the recent turmoil in the banking sector.

Looking into today’s session, there is one more housing data release to watch: Pending Home Sales (E: 1.0%) before Fed Vice Chair Barr continues with his Congressional testimony regarding recent bank failures at 10:00 a.m. ET. There is also a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Bottom line, equity markets appear to be stabilizing but the tape does remain thin and tentative with the “pain trade” to the upside. One materially negative headline out of the banking sector or regarding Fed policy, however, could reignite the volatility of recent weeks.

Progress on the Banks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do the Banks Stabilize?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Key Inflation Data on Friday

Futures are modestly higher following the successful merger of Silicon Valley Bank over the weekend.

First Citizens agreed to buy much of Silicon Valley Bank’s assets, and that resolution combined with larger deposit insurance chatter is helping stocks to rally this morning.

Economically, the only notable report overnight was the German Ifo Business Expectations and it was better than expected at 91.2 vs. (E) 88.0.

Today focus will remain on the banks and as has been the case, Frist Republic is the key – resolution for that bank remains the next step towards broader stability in the banking sector.  Economically, today we get the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -13.5) and have one Fed speaker, Jefferson at 5:00 p.m. ET, but neither should move markets.

Catalysts to Watch This Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Roadmap for the Catalysts This Week
  • Economic Takeaways – Inflation Is Still High and the Consumer Is Still Healthy (For Now)
  • FOMC in Focus This Week – Will The Fed Signal a Pause?

Stock futures are little changed but cross-asset money flows remain cautious with Treasuries and gold both trading higher as the latest developments in the global banking sector are digested.

Swiss regulators brokered a deal for UBS to take over Credit Suisse for $3.2B over the weekend, a steep discount from CS’s $8B market value on Friday but global bank shares are relatively stable to start the week today helping the broader market hold steady in early trade.

The Fed and several other major central banks coordinated efforts to boost liquidity in dollar swaps over the weekend in their latest attempt to ease strains in the global financial system, which so far, is being received fairly well.

There are no notable economic reports today and no Fed officials are schedule to speak which will leave focus on the price action in banks today. If financials can hold above last week’s lows, that will be a positive, but if the selling pressure continues, the broader market is likely to be dragged lower with the banks as the March Fed meeting comes into focus.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo on March 14th, 2023

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How the Bank Failures Could Impact You Even If It Wasn’t Your Money

Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye told Forbes the selloff following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse and a similar collapse by crypto bank Silvergate last week was “undoubtedly an unwelcome reminder” of the 2008 financial crisis. And noted that SVB tried but failed to stay to afloat after the bank was forced to sell a bond portfolio at a $1.8 billion loss because higher interest rates pushed bond prices “far below” where they were when purchased. Click here to read the full article.