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Recent data have traders worried that the economy is slowing

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Recent data have traders worried that the economy is slowing: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Are Slipping. The Market Can’t Find Middle Ground.

Recent data have traders worried that the economy is slowing more than people think, Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s. He notes that if the economy slows too much, the question becomes whether rate cuts in September and December would be enough to turn things around.

“The market can’t ever find the middle,” Essaye says.

He says that sentiment has bounced back and forth between worries about hot inflation to worries that the Federal Reserve won’t be able to navigate a slowing economy. Essaye thinks the pullback in stocks can be chalked up to already-high valuations.

“It’s not that things have suddenly turned bad,” says Essaye. “It’s that we’re priced for a very still-perfect environment, and the data is implying it’s maybe not so perfect.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 5th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The data is starting to show a potential soft landing

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The data is starting to show a potential soft landing: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Only Two S&P 500 Sectors Are Rising

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the data is starting to show a potential soft landing, though where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.

“A soft landing was always a slowing of growth that sort of didn’t get too bad,” Essaye says. “So it appears we are kind of arriving at that point. Now, the issue is that every hard landing started with a soft landing. You don’t just jump from growth to contraction.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 5th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A bearish-leaning reality that OPEC+

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A  bearish-leaning reality that OPEC+: Sevens Report co-editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil futures settle at lowest since early February

The market’s bullish hopes for some degree of commitment to ‘price stability’ via the potential for further production cuts were dashed, and instead met with a bearish-leaning reality that OPEC+ does not seem willing to cut production any further than they already have despite ongoing recession risks that would cripple demand,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 3rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Concerning Divergence in Bond Markets

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A Concerning Divergence in Bond Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is the Smart Market Telling Us? (Part II)
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – Normalizing or Rolling Over?
  • Chart: JOLTS Fall Below Pre-Pandemic Trend Path

Futures are tracking European markets higher this morning on the back of “goldilocks” growth and inflation data overnight ahead of more key domestic economic data today.

Economically, China’s May Composite PMI handily beat estimates at 54.1 vs. (E) 52.7 which was a welcomed print as Chinese data has been underwhelming recently.

In Europe, the Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 52.2 vs. (E) 52.3 while April PPI fell -1.0% m/m vs. (E) -0.5%. Stabilizing growth numbers and evidence of further disinflation are exactly what the ECB want to see ahead of their first rate cut as it helps shore up the soft-landing argument.

Looking into today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak but two important economic reports on the calendar. First, the May ADP Employment Report (E: 173K) will be released pre-market and second, the ISM Services Index (E: 50.7) is due out a half hour after the opening bell.

Investors will want to see a labor market print that is close to estimates. A number too strong will push back on the recent dovish money flows while a weak number will add to recession worries. With the ISM, a steady number above 50 with cooling price indices would be the best case scenario for risk assets leading into the jobs report Friday.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Is the “Smart Market” Telling Us? (Part I)

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What Is the “Smart Market” Telling Us? (Part I) : Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is the Smart Market Telling Us? (Part I)
  • May ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways
  • OPEC+ Decision Takeaways – Focus Shifts to Demand

Markets are trading with a risk-off tone globally as U.S. stock futures are tracking overseas equities lower while Treasuries maintain a strong safe-haven bid amid worries about global growth ahead of more key economic data today.

Overnight, Korean CPI fell to 2.7% vs. (E) 2.8% and Swiss CPI was unchanged at 1.4% vs. (E) 1.6%. German Unemployment was also steady at 5.9%, meeting estimates. The lack of positive response to the easing inflation data underscores increasing growth concerns.

Looking into today’s session focus will be on economic data early with JOLTS (E: 8.4 million), Factory Orders (E: 0.7%), and Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.8 million) all due to be released.

There are no Fed speakers or major Treasury auctions today, leaving the economic data releases the main potential market catalysts. If the data disappoints, growth worries could see the early risk-off money flows accelerate, however, “goldilocks” data could help stocks continue to stabilize after last week’s spike in volatility.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is Bad Economic Data Starting to Pressure Earnings?

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Is Bad Economic Data Starting to Pressure Earnings? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Bad Economic Data Starting to Pressure Earnings?
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly lower again following more disappointing earnings and another hot global inflation print.

DELL (down 15% pre-market) became the latest non-AI tech company to post disappointing results and that’s weighing on futures.

Economically, the EU flash HICP (their CPI) rose more than expected at 2.9% vs. (E) 2.7% y/y and that’s pushing back on expectations for multiple ECB rate cuts this year.

Today brings the biggest economic report of the week, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y).  Markets will want to see a number at, or ideally below, expectations to further ease inflation anxiety and pressure Treasury yields. If investors get that number this morning, expect a solid bounce back rally in stocks and bonds.  The other notable number today is the Chicago PMI (E: 40.8) but barring a major surprise that shouldn’t move markets.

Regarding the Trump guilty verdict, as we covered in Thursday’s Report, this could result in some temporary volatility in select sectors (oil and gas, industrials, financials) but we do not view this event as a material influence on markets.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker today, Bostic at 6:15 p.m. ET but he shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Will the Trump Verdict Impact Markets?

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Will the Trump Verdict Impact Markets? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Will the Trump Verdict Impact Markets?
  • When Will Higher Yields Pressure Stocks?

Futures are moderately lower again following more disappointing tech earnings and another hot inflation print.

Salesforce (CRM) missed earnings and joined a growing list of non-AI tech companies to post disappointing result (WDAY last week) and that’s weighing on futures.

Economically, Spanish CPI was hotter than expected as it rose 3.8% y/y vs. (E) 3.7%, up from last month’s 3.4%

Today includes some potentially important economic data as we get the Revised Q1 GDP report (E: 1.5%) and focus will be on the headline as well as any revisions to the PCE Price Data (if it’s revised higher, that’s a negative).  Other notable data today includes Jobless Claims (E: 217K) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.3%) and as has been the case all year, “hot” data will be negative for stocks and bond.

There are also two Fed speakers today, Williams (12:05 p.m. ET) and Logan (5:00 p.m. ET), although unless they talk about rate hikes, they comments shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

One Emerging Market Winner (Regardless of the Election Outcome)

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One Emerging Market Winner: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Politics in Focus: One Emerging Market Winner (Regardless of the President)

Stock futures are moderately lower this morning as the rally in mega-cap tech stocks is taking a breather amid a 10 basis point rise in the 10-Yr yield so far this week.

Economically, regional German CPI figures have come in mixed so far this morning ahead of the official German estimate due to be released at 8:00 a.m. ET while Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index rose to -20.9 vs. (E) -24.0.

Today, there is one lesser-followed Fed survey due to be released: The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -6.0) but survey data has moved markets recently so if the release is a surprise (hot or cold) it could move markets today.

There are also two Fed speakers on the calendar for this afternoon and evening: Williams (1:45 p.m. ET) and Bostic (7:00 p.m. ET).

However, after yesterday’s Treasury auctions sent yields spiking higher and ultimately weighed heavily on stocks in the afternoon, the Treasury’s 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET will likely be the most important catalyst for markets today. Another soft auction outcome will further pressure stocks while strong demand for the Notes could help stocks stabilize from this pre-market weakness.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investors still view ‘bad data as good for stocks’

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Investors still view ‘bad data as good for stocks’: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Nvidia Earnings Spark a Rally in Tech Stocks

“For now, investors still view ‘bad data as good for stocks’ as it makes rate cuts more likely so a small miss vs. expectations should extend the early rally,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

No relation to the recent geopolitical tensions

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No relation to the recent geopolitical tensions: Sevens Report Research Analysts, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices settle lower as traders fret over the outlook for demand

Analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter that the crash was deemed to be “an accident and had no relation to the recent geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, which allowed for some of the fear bids added on Friday ahead of the weekend to come unwound” at the start of Monday’s trading.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on May 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.