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This will be a potentially busy week of catalysts

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This will be a potentially busy week of catalysts: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Lower as Bond Yields Rise

“This will be a potentially busy week of catalysts but it starts slowly today as there are no economic reports and just one Fed speaker,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “So, absent any surprises, expect yields to drive stocks. If the 10-year Treasury yield drifts lower, don’t be surprised if stocks recoup these early losses.”

“We think Powell will hold his ground and not try to give anything away,” writes Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities. “He won’t be that hawkish or show signs of dovishness, although we see Powell as a dove in wolf’s clothing.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 4th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to Rally

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Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies

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Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Government Shutdown Update
  • Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies
  • “Short-Volatility Trade” Update: Chart

Futures are little changed this morning as investors digest a hotter than expected inflation print out of Japan and still cautious gauge of consumer sentiment in Europe ahead of a busy day of economic data in the U.S.

Overnight, Japanese Core CPI fell to 3.5% vs. (E) 3.3% while the German GfK Consumer Climate Index edged up by a modest 0.7 points to -29.0 vs. (E) -29.6. Neither release was particularly positive for markets but futures are stable ahead of today’s domestic data.

Looking into today’s session, there are four economic reports to watch this morning: Durable Goods Orders (E: -4.5%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.2%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 115.0). Markets will want to see stability in the housing market data and easing but not collapsing growth and sentiment numbers in order for stocks to hold near the recently established record highs.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Yesterday’s 2-Yr and 5-Yr Note auctions were weak, putting upward pressure on yields and if today’s 7-Yr auction is weak as well, expect the benchmark 10-Yr yield to test the critical 4.30% level which could weigh on equity markets.

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Sentiment Has Deteriorated Since The Start Of December

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Sentiment Has Deteriorated: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Lower as Market Digests November Rally

“Investors will want to see more evidence that supports a soft landing in the data as sentiment has deteriorated since the start of December,” Tom Essaye writes.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye points out that the decision by Moody’s Investors Service to downgrade the outlook for Chinese government credit to negative from stable could be weighing on sentiment. Economic reports due in the day ahead are the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and ISM Services Index, both at 10 a.m. ET.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on December 5th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

One Potential Catalyst

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Two Biggest Risks to the 2023 Year-end Rally

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The Two Biggest Risks to the Rally Until Year-end: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Two Biggest Risks to the Rally Until Year-end
  • Weekly Market Preview: Three Pillars of the Rally Remain Intact (For Now)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Service Sector Data in Focus

Stock futures are modestly lower with most global markets this morning amid renewed global growth concerns.

Economic data disappointed overnight with China’s Service PMI falling to a 2023 low of 51.8 vs. (E) 53.7 in August while the Eurozone Service PMI declined to 47.9 vs. (E) 48.3. The soft data rekindled global recession concerns putting risk-assets under pressure as we start the holiday shortened trading week.

Today, two second-tiered economic reports are due: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.6M) and Factory Orders (E: -2.6%). But, neither are likely to meaningfully impact markets.

No Fed officials are on schedule to speak today. The Treasury will hold auctions for 3-Month, 6-Month, and 52-Week Bills late this morning. The results of the auctions could shed light on the market’s outlook for Fed policy plans in the months ahead. However, weak demand leading to a rise in short-duration yields will be viewed as hawkish which has the potential to put additional pressure on equity markets and risk assets today.

Risks to rally

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Why the U.K. Budget Drama Matters to You

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the U.K. Budget Drama Matters (Hint: Spiking Yields)
  • Two Technical Takeaways from Yesterday’s New Lows

Stock futures are trading cautiously higher while yields and the dollar ease from yesterday’s highs after the Fed’s Evans made some less hawkish commentary overnight.

While speaking on “Squawk Box Europe” early this morning, Charles Evans said he was getting nervous about the Fed’s pace of tightening and that if inflation peaks, the FOMC could cut rates as soon as early 2023 which has sparked a relief rally across risk assets amid renewed hopes for “peak hawkishness.”

Economically, Chinese Industrial Profits declined -2.2% in August from -1.1% in July but slowing global growth is largely priced into the market at this point.

Looking into today’s session there are multiple economic reports to watch including: Durable Goods (E: -1.2%), S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.3%), New Home Sales (E: 498K), and Consumer Confidence (E: 104.3). Investors will be continuing to look for slowing growth, a moderating labor market and most importantly any further signs of easing price pressures as those are all necessary components in getting the Fed to “peak hawkishness.”

Regarding the Fed, there are several officials speaking today: Powell (7:30 a.m. ET), Daly (8:35 a.m. ET), and Bullard (9:55 a.m. ET). And while it is unlikely any of them echo Evans’ dovish tone form earlier this morning, if they do come across as less hawkish, we could see a violent relief rally play out as stocks have become oversold in recent sessions.

What a “Soft Landing” Looks Like

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What A “Soft Landing” Looks Like (At Least From One Economic Report)

Futures are slightly lower following a mostly quiet night as investors await today’s jobs report.

Economic data was disappointing as German exports unexpectedly declined (-2.1% vs. (E) 4.1%) while Euro Zone PPI was hotter than expected (37.9% y/y vs. (E) 36.4% y/y).

In China, authorities announced that companies in Chengdu could implement “closed loop” systems and stay in operation, which should reduce supply chain disruptions.

Today the key event is the August Employment Situation report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds: 293K, UE Rate: 3.5%, Wages: 0.4% m/m, 5.3% y/y.  If markets can get a “Just Right” number (small job adds, a rise in the unemployment rate and a drop in wages) then stocks can extend yesterday’s rally as that will be the second straight “Goldilocks” report in two days (the other being yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI) and it’ll increase hopes for an economic soft landing.

Market Multiple Table: September Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table: September Update

Stock futures are modestly lower today as investors digest yesterday’s strong equity rally and assess the COVID-19 outbreak among politicians after President Trump’s return to the White House from Walter Reed Medical Center.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders grew 4.5% vs. (E) 2.3% in August but positive economic data remains a near-term negative for risk assets as it reduces pressure for lawmakers to unleash more stimulus.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Goods & Services Trade (E: -$66.5) before the bell and JOLTS (E: 6.250M) shortly after the open but neither is expected to materially move markets.

There are also multiple Fed speakers today including: Harker (12:00 p.m. ET), Bostic (2:00 p.m. ET), and Kaplan (6:00 p.m. ET) but Powell (10:40 a.m. ET) will be the most closely watched as the market looks for further clues into future policy.

Beyond economic data and Fed speakers, markets will continue to focus on Capitol Hill and the ongoing negotiations for the next stimulus deal. Specifically, Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are expected to have a follow up call today so investors will be anxiously waiting for any updates from their conversation.

Risks to the Stimulus Driven Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom line: Risks to the Stimulus Driven Rally

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as investors weigh a continued rise in coronavirus cases and escalating geopolitical tensions against positive economic data.

China’s CFLP Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 vs. (E) 50.5 in June indicating an acceleration in the economic recovery.

China’s parliament passed a new national security law for Hong Kong o/n but specific details have yet to be released.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch: S&P Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.5%) and Consumer Confidence (E: 90.0) as well as a slew of Fed speak to monitor: Williams (7:00 & 11:00 a.m. ET), Powell (12:30 p.m. ET), Bostic (2:00 p.m. ET), and Kashkari (2:00 p.m. ET).

Powell’s testimony before Congress, alongside Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, will be the “main event” today and as long as they reiterate their plans for stimulus measures to continue for the foreseeable future, stocks should be able to end the second quarter in a relatively quiet manner this afternoon.

Global Economic Stimulus Playbook (Repeat of ’08-’14?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This Just a Big Replay of ’08-’14?

S&P futures are up well over 1% this morning as newly proposed economic stimulus plans in Europe and Japan, which total nearly $2T, are offsetting U.S.-China tensions.

The European Commission announced plans for another 750B euro economic recovery package overnight while Japan is planning $1.1T  in new stimulus to help stabilize growth.

Hong Kong protests due to China’s proposed national security laws weighed on Asian shares overnight and stoked concerns of rising tensions between the U.S. and China.

Today, there are no notable economic reports due to be released in the U.S. and just one Fed speaker to watch midday: Bullard (12:30 p.m. ET).

There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move rates, impact the curve and ultimately affect stocks but the market’s primary focus will remain on coronavirus treatment/vaccine development, economic reopening progress, and simmering U.S.-China trade tensions.

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • Why Have Stocks Rallied?

Global equities rallied overnight and stock futures are trading higher today after China reduced tariffs on $75B worth of U.S. goods, spurring optimism for a “phase two” trade deal and further easing concerns about the coronavirus outbreak’s impact on the global economy.

Outside of trade news, OPEC+ has agreed to cut their collective oil output target by 600K b/d to help support oil prices which crashed into a bear market this week on Wuhan coronavirus fears.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 215K) and Productivity and Costs (E: 1.5%, 1.2%) while two Fed officials will speak: Kaplan (9:15 a.m. ET) and Quarles (7:15 p.m. ET).

Additionally, there are a few earnings releases due out including: TWTR ($0.28), BMY ($0.88) and UBER (-$0.68), however given the latest trade-war news, the markets will remain largely focused on China’s decision to cut tariffs and any new developments regarding the coronavirus outbreak.