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Can the Trump Trade Outperform in 2025?

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Can the Trump Trade Outperform in 2025?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Trump Trade Outperform in 2025?

Futures are sharply lower following another failed attempt at a short-term government funding agreement.

A Republican plan for a new short-term government funding agreement was soundly defeated in a House vote and a government shutdown starting today is looking likely.

Specifically, futures aren’t down because of the shutdown itself, but instead because this is the type of political chaos markets fear in a second Trump term (that hasn’t even officially started yet).

Today politics will dominate the headlines and any positive news towards a funding agreement will fuel a bounce, while no progress will continue to weigh on stocks.

Beyond Washington, however, there is an important economic report today, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y).  This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and given the Fed’s hawkish decision on Wednesday, this number needs to come in at or under expectations, otherwise it’ll just add to the selling pressure.

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Did the Fed Decision Weaken the Bull Market?

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Did the Fed Decision Weaken the Bull Market?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Four Reasons the Fed Decision Caused Such a Big Selloff
  • Did the Fed Decision Weaken the Bull Market?

Futures are seeing a bounce following yesterday’s steep selloff despite more negative news overnight.

Politically, government shutdown risks spiked on Thursday after support for the stop-gap funding bill collapsed and a government shutdown on Friday is becoming more likely.

On earnings, Micron (MU) posted disappointing guidance and the stock is down –15% pre-open.

Today is another busy day of economic data and policy decisions.   The Bank of England has a rate decision (E: 25 bps cut) while there are numerous U.S. economic reports including, in order of importance,  Jobless Claims (E: 232K), Philly Fed (E: 2.5), Final Q3 GDP (E: 2.8%) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05 million).  The market needs Goldilocks data to help it hold this early bounce and any data that’s “Too Hot” (meaning much stronger than expected) will only increase hawkish Fed worries, push yields higher and likely hit stocks, again.

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Why Has the Trump Trade Stalled? (Part One)

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Why Has the Trump Trade Stalled? (Part One): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Has the Trump Trade Stalled? (Part One)
  • Economic Takeaways – November Retail Sales

Stock futures are recovering some of yesterday’s losses as cooler-than-feared inflation data in the EU is driving modestly dovish money flows ahead of the Fed decision.

Economically, inflation data out of Europe was “cooler” than feared with U.K. Core CPI rising to 3.5% vs. (E) 3.6% while Eurozone HICP rose to 2.2% vs. (E) 2.3%. The “cooler” data saw rates traders price in more policy rate cuts from the ECB in 2025.

Today, there is one economic report due to be released mid-morning: Housing Starts and Permits (1.340M & 1.430M) but the primary market focus will be the Fed decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and likely more importantly, Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

While the Fed will almost certainly be the primary catalyst for markets today, there is some micro-news that could influence sectors and sub-sectors of the equity markets as we will get late season earnings from GIS ($1.22), JBL ($1.88), MU ($1.75), and LEN ($4.18).

Bottom line, investors are looking for the Fed to reiterate their view that the economy is tracking for a soft-landing and that the FOMC is not overly concerned with the latest uptick in inflation data that could signal a sustained “pause” in rate cuts. A hawkish tone in the announcement or Powell’s press conference would likely trigger renewed selling pressure in equity markets and higher bond yields.

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FOMC Preview (All About the Projections)

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FOMC Preview (All About the Projections): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview – All About the Projections
  • NVDA Chart – Three Negative Technical Developments
  • Economic Data Takeaways – Empire Survey and PMIs “Goldilocks Enough”

Futures are moderately lower as mostly strong international economic data overnight is putting upward pressure on global bond yields as focus turns to this week’s central bank decisions, including the Fed tomorrow.

Economically, Germany’s December Ifo Survey was mixed with Current Conditions edging up to 85.1 vs. (E) 83.8 but Business Expectations declined to 84.4 vs. (E) 87.0 while UK wage growth jumped 5.2% y/y vs. (E) 4.6% which sent Gilt yields higher.

Today, trader focus will be on economic data early with Retail Sales (E: 0.5%), Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) and the Housing Market Index (E: 47) all due to be released.

However, with the FOMC meeting getting underway in Washington, market moves are likely to be limited (barring any material surprises) as a familiar sense of “Fed-Paralysis” is likely to begin gripping the market with tomorrow’s FOMC decision looming.

Finally, there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that has the potential to move yields and impact equity market trading but odds of that happening ahead of the Fed announcement tomorrow are relatively low.

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What to Expect from Markets in 2025

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What to Expect from Markets in 2025: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What to Expect from Markets in 2025
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does the Fed Keep Cutting and Does Data Stay Goldilocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  All Eyes on the Fed Dots

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news and despite mixed global economic data.

Chinese Retail Sales (3.0% vs. (E) 4.6%) and Fixed Asset Investment (3.3% vs. (E) 3.5%) both missed estimates, reminding investors that despite promises for more stimulus, Chinese growth remains lackluster.

In Europe, data was better as the flash Composite PMIs for the EU (49.5 vs. (E) 48.0) and the UK (50.5 vs. (E) 50.0) both beat estimates.

Today focus will be on the Empire Manufacturing Survey (6.4) as that’s the first data point for December and investors will want to see in an-line to slightly soft reading to reinforce the Goldilocks narrative.

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Why Has Tech Been So Strong? (Again)

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Why Has Tech Been So Strong? (Again): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Has Tech Been So Strong? (Again)

Futures are modestly higher following better than expected tech earnings overnight.

Broadcom (AVGO) earnings were mixed but management commentary was bullish and the stock is rallying 15% pre-market and that’s helping to boost tech stocks and broader market futures.

Economically, the notable data was from the UK and it was soft.  Monthly GDP (-0.1% vs. (E) 0.2%) and Industrial Production (-0.6% vs. (E) 0.3%) both missed estimates.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers, so markets will likely follow the tech sector.  If the AVGO led tech rally this morning can hold, it should pull other indices and sectors higher with it.

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What the CPI Report Means for Markets

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What the CPI Report Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the CPI Report Means for Markets

Futures are modestly lower on a surprise central bank rate hike and after ADBE posted disappointing guidance.

Brazil’s Central Bank hiked rates 100 bps (more than expected) and promised more rate hikes in the future, reflecting some mild fraying of the global rate cut cycle.

ADBE guidance missed investor expectations and it’s the second underwhelming tech report this week (after ORCL).

Today focus will be on rate cuts and economic data.  First, we get the ECB Rate Decision and markets expect a 25 bps cut (if there’s no cut, that’d be a surprise negative).  Economically, the key report today is Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and markets will want to see another Goldilocks reading (so around the 220k level).  We also get the latest PPI report (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) but barring a big jump, it shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, on the earnings front, the key report today is AVGO ($1.39) and markets will want to see a solid tech report to stop this mini-trend of underwhelming guidance (from ORCL and ADBE this week).

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The VIX index and VIX futures both getting pressured in a big way

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The VIX index and VIX futures both getting pressured in a big way: Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in S&P Global

Stock market ‘fear gauge’ plunges; investors expect rally to persist into 2025

Volatility dynamics in the stock market have shifted since the election when many investors crowded into downside stock market hedges on fears that a Democratic victory could lead to taxes on unrealized capital gains, said Tyler Richey with Sevens Report Research. This also hurt the performance of short volatility strategies, which had been crushed by a massive VIX squeeze at the start of August, Richey said.

“Between the post-election unwind in broad stock market hedges and a suffering short-volatility crowd [throughout 2024], the derivatives market pendulum swung hard from one extreme to another with the VIX index and VIX futures both getting pressured in a big way over the last month,” Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full S&P Global article published on December 6th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Market indicators and cyclical signals we monitor suggest all the pieces are in place for this bull market to end

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Bull market to end in the weeks or months ahead: Tyler Richey Quoted in Business Insider

All the pieces are in place for this bull market to end’: A technical strategist who called the S&P 500’s surge to 6,000 warns that stocks are a negative catalyst away from a 20% drop

Tyler Richey laid out an argument for why the S&P 500 could climb all the way to 6,000. Investor sentiment was bullish but not excessively so.

“Looking ahead, the collection of market indicators and cyclical signals we monitor suggest all the pieces are in place for this bull market to end in the weeks or months ahead and for a cyclical bear market to begin,” Richey said in an email, adding: “There is nothing in the current fundamental backdrop that suggests a bear market in stocks is a sure thing or even likely for that matter.”

“Weekly RSI failing to ‘confirm’ the new highs in the S&P 500 is a dynamic we have seen leading up to every major market pullback in modern market history, including the tech bubble bursting and the GFC recession,” he said in an email, referencing the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes.

Also, click here to view the full Business Insider article published on December 7th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

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Jobs Day: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Updated VIX Analysis

Futures are slightly lower following a mostly quiet night of news and ahead of today’s jobs report.

Economically, German Industrial Production missed expectations (-1.0% vs. (E) 1.5%) and became the latest underwhelming EU economic report.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  200K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate, 3.9% y/y Wage Growth.  A “Goldilocks” job adds number is something around the 200k expectation or lower, as long as it’s not close to zero.  Anything in that range (with mostly in-line unemployment and wages) should “green light” a Fed rate cut in December and help fuel a Santa Rally.

Speaking of the Fed, there are numerous speakers today including Bowman (9:15 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (10:30 a.m. ET), Hammack (12:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (1:00 p.m. ET).  However, most of them have spoken recently and their message has been consistent:  A December rate cut is possible but not guaranteed and rates will come down over time.  As long as that’s the message from them today, they shouldn’t impact markets.

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