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Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Do tariffs start to boost inflation this month?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Important inflation and growth updates this week.

Futures are modestly lower following more tariff threats over the weekend.

President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and non-USMCA goods from Mexico starting August 1st, although the modest decline in markets still implies investors think tariff rates will be negotiated lower ahead of the deadline.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Chinese exports, which beat expectations (5.8% vs. (E) 5.0%).

This week is an important one from an economic standpoint as we’ll get important updates on inflation (via CPI & PPI) and growth (via retail sales), but the week starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today.

On earnings, the Q2 reporting season begins to heat up this week via big bank earnings, although today the only notable report to watch is FAST ($0.28).

Bitcoin/Crypto Monthly Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bitcoin/Crypto Monthly Update

Futures are modestly lower following more tariff increases and escalation in the tensions between the White House and Fed.

President Trump increased tariff rates on non-USMCA goods from Canada to 35% and threatened to increase the baseline tariff on all imports to 15% – 20% (from 10%).

Tensions between the White House and Fed rose on Thursday, as the Office of Management and Budget is now investigating the Federal Reserve building renovation.

Today there are no economic reports so trade headlines will be in focus, including the tariff rates on the EU and Taiwan.  Markets have been impressively resilient this week in the face of potentially dramatic tariff escalation, but if negative trade headlines continue throughout the day, don’t be surprised if this early selloff accelerates because tariff rates are possibly going much, much higher than previously expected.

Two Ways Tariff Policy Could Hurt Stocks (Even If TACO is True)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Ways Tariff Policy Could Hurt Stocks (Even If TACO is True)

Futures are slightly lower following a quiet night of news as markets digest the latest tariff threats.

Tariff threats from the administration have intensified over the week including the 50% tariff on copper imports and 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, but markets continue to largely ignore them and view it all as a negotiation.

Today focus will be on economic data, trade headlines and earnings.  Starting with the data, the key report today is Jobless Claims (E: 238K) and markets will want to see continued stability to further support last Friday’s good jobs number (and push back on any slowdown fears).  There are also three Fed speakers today, Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET), Waller (1:15 p.m. ET and Daly (2:30 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

On trade, markets are still waiting for updates on the EU and Taiwan.  A “deal” with the EU would further reduce trade anxiety while a letter would likely (slightly) escalate trade anxiety.

Finally, the Q2 earnings season starts (effectively) today and some reports we’re watching include:  DAL ($2.01), CAG ($0.59), LEVI ($0.14), PSMT ($1.16), WDFC ($1.43).

 

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Stocks Close Mixed as Tariff Worries Return, But Tom Essaye Says Markets Aren’t Buying It Yet

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Sevens Report sees complacency risk as indexes sit near all-time highs

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

U.S. stocks ended mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed the latest tariff uncertainty, but according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, the market’s muted reaction may be telling.

“If people believed it, we’d be down several percentage points… The fact that we’re not means nobody believes it.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye noted that sentiment, once extremely bearish in the spring, has since shifted—creating a more fragile market environment as stocks hover near all-time highs.

“The market has become vulnerable to negative surprises.”

That vulnerability could amplify any future macro shocks—especially if investor complacency builds while real risks remain unresolved.

Also, click here to view the full Xinhua article, published on July 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

U.S. equity futures are mostly higher, albeit modestly so while global bond yields are steady as investors continue to digest this week’s latest tariff headlines and broader trade war developments.

Economically, Chinese CPI edged up +0.1% vs. (E) -0.1% y/y in June while PPI fell -3.6% vs. (E) -3.2% y/y last month.

Looking into today’s session, there is one lesser-followed economic report due to be released: Wholesale inventories (E: -0.3%) but the reports shouldn’t materially move markets.

Moving into the afternoon, there are two potential catalysts to watch: A 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (foreign demand for yesterday’s 3-Yr auction was light and more of the same today would put upward pressure on yields and likely weigh on stocks), and the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) which could shed more light on the timeframe for the Fed’s next rate cut.

Bottom line, the economic calendar and Fed speaker circuit both remain light/thin today as has been the case all week which will leave investors primarily focused on very fluid tariff headlines and sentiment towards the broader global trade war. The more progress towards concrete deals, the better for risk assets while any further escalations are likely to further weigh on stocks in thin summer trade.

Stock Futures Dip as Tariff Pressures Build — Sevens Report Warns of Long-Term Risks

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Tom Essaye on why markets may be ignoring the true cost of rising global tariffs

Stock futures point to declines as investors face tariffs ‘much higher than anything in decades’

After a strong finish last week, U.S. stock futures pointed to modest declines Monday morning as investors began to confront the growing scale of global tariffs.

According to Sevens Report Research, markets may be underestimating the long-term impact of the tariff wave—one unlike anything seen in decades.

“Tariffs are already coming in higher than markets expected and much higher than anything in decades.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Founder Tom Essaye pointed to new trade deals and policy changes across major economies:

  • Vietnam just signed a deal with 20% baseline tariffs and 40% tariffs on rerouted goods

  • China: 30% tariffs

  • UK: 10% tariffs

  • “A soon-to-be host” of other countries are following suit

Despite this, the S&P 500 closed at a record high last week, with momentum continuing to push stocks upward. But Essaye cautioned that these risks are compounding beneath the surface:

“While the path of least resistance is higher… there are real risks building in the distance.”

He also noted that while the recently passed tax and spending bill may provide near-term stimulus, it will increase the national deficit in coming years—adding another layer of risk for investors to consider.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on July 7th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

July Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July Market Multiple Table – Is the Good News All Priced In?
  • Needed Context for Tariff & Trade Deal Announcements

U.S. futures are slightly higher while global shares were mixed overnight with Asian markets outperforming and EU equities lagging as the latest trade war news was digested.

President Trump’s latest round of tariffs were viewed as not-as-bad-as-feared with deadlines being pushed back and multiple mentions of potential exemptions mentioned in discussions with the EU and Asian trading partners, leaving markets steady this morning.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down from 98.8 to 98.6 vs. (E) 98.7 in June but the report is not materially impacting markets this morning.

Today there is just one, lesser-followed economic report due out in the afternoon: Consumer Credit (E: $11.5B) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

There is a 3-Year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could potentially move yields and impact equity markets, but otherwise, trader focus will remain on the still very fluid trade war narrative.

Market Outlook: Positive News, but Investor Complacency is Surging

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Outlook: Positive News, but Investor Complacency is Surging
  • Weekly Market Preview: Tariff Updates – Is TACO Still Valid?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Focus on the Labor Market This Week

Futures are moderately lower on an increase in trade anxiety as the July 9th reciprocal tariff deadline approaches.

President Trump threatened a 10% tariff for any countries that align with “anti-American” BRIC policies and that is reminding investors of ever-present trade tensions.

On reciprocal tariffs, Secretary Bessent said tariff rates won’t increase until August 1st but several countries would be notified of higher tariff rates this week.

Economically, UK retail sales & German IP beat estimates.

Today there are no economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will be on trade headlines.  Any reports of any more trade “deals” ahead of the July 9th deadline will be a positive for markets and help stocks recoup these early losses.

 

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter

Our Q2 ’25 Quarterly Letter was delivered to subscribers last Tuesday, complete with compliance backup and citations.

We’re already receiving feedback about how it is saving advisors time and helping them communicate with their clients!

If you are behind on your quarterly letter, let us help!  The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter will be delivered immediately after you subscribe. 

You can view our Q1 ’25 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Would New Highs in the Dow Be Positive for Stocks? (Not Necessarily)

Futures are little changed as markets await today’s important jobs report.

Politically, the Big, Beautiful Bill made more progress in the House overnight and it is expected to pass by July 4th (although this expected so it’s not a market moving event).

Economically, both EU and UK Composite PMIs beat expectations, pushing back growth fears in those regions.

Today focus will be on economic data and specifically the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 110K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 0.3% Wages.  Given yesterday’s soft ADP report, the stronger the number, the better as it’ll push back on slowdown fears.  Other important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 240K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 50.5) and, again, better than expected numbers will be welcomed by the markets.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker: Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET) but he shouldn’t move markets.

New S&P 500 High Built on Confidence Not Complacency | Sevens Report Cautions What’s Next

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Markets rise on policy optimism, but slowing growth could still derail momentum

New S&P 500 high raises questions on longevity – Sevens Report

The S&P 500 has surged back to its February highs, but according to Sevens Report Research, that strength may be on shakier ground than it appears.

The rally is being driven in part by confidence that the Trump administration won’t materially damage the economy, despite aggressive rhetoric and growing tariff pressures.

“That belief is the foundation upon which the Q2 rebound was built,”
— Sevens Report

Another factor supporting the market: stagflation fears are fading, as falling housing and energy prices help offset inflation from tariffs. Meanwhile, strong economic indicators—like June’s flash PMIs beating expectations—have added to the positive sentiment.

The report also noted that while valuations appear stretched based on 2025 earnings, 2026 estimates suggest a more reasonable 20.8× forward P/E for the S&P 500.

“Analysts are quickly pivoting to using 2026 earnings estimates of $290–$300/share.”

Tech stocks, particularly AI-driven names, remain central to the rally, but Sevens Report warns that not all signals are bullish.

“There are growing signs that the labor market is losing momentum… and this market is making no allowances for a growth scare.”

Mixed jobless claims and the potential for weak PMI data in the week ahead could quickly shift the narrative. With a shortened holiday week ahead, the resilience of this rally may soon be tested.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on June 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.