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Earnings Preview (What Really Matters)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Preview (What Really Matters)

Futures are slightly higher on better than expected tech earnings overnight, although higher oil prices are keeping gains modest.

SpaceX (SPCX up 10% pre-open) and Super Micro (SMCI up 12% pre-open) beat earnings and are injecting some AI Enthusiasm back into the market.

Economically, UK inflation ran hot as both CPI (Core CPI up 2.8% y/y vs. (E) 2.7% y/y) beat estimates.

Today there are no notable economic reports so focus will remain on geopolitics and earnings.  Geopolitically, U.S. officials are in Russia so and “progress” on diplomacy will likely pressure oil and help boost stocks.

On earnings, the first hyperscaler reports today, META ($6.54) and other reports we’re watching include TSLA ($0.22), LRCX ($2.17), PM ($2.30), TMO ($6.40) and TXN ($2.40).

 

Earnings Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Season Preview: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Futures are drifting higher this morning while overseas markets were mixed during a quiet night of trading as investors look ahead to a busy calendar of events today.

There were a few economic releases o/n but none materially moved markets with international focus on this morning’s ECB Announcement (7:45 a.m. ET) and Draghi’s press conference afterwards where he is expected to shed light on TLTRO plans.

Looking into the U.S. session today, it is shaping up to be a busy one. In chronological order, there is one economic report ahead of the open: CPI (E: 0.3%, 0.2%), weekly EIA data is due out at 10:30 a.m. ET, and the Fed’s Quarles is schedule to speak at 11:50 a.m. ET.

Moving to the afternoon, there is a 10-Year Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if the outcome moves yields materially, stocks will likely follow. Then, the FOMC March Meeting Minutes are due out at 2:00 p.m. ET and the Fed’s Kaplan speaks later this evening: 7:00 p.m. ET.

With so many moving parts today, it will be important to keep an eye on yields as the bond market will offer the best read of how investors are digesting all of the day’s events.

Specifically, the 10 year yield has stabilized at 2.50% recently and if it can move higher, stocks could grind higher as well, however, if yields begin to drop like they did two weeks ago, volatility is likely to rise again, potentially significantly.