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Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

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Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

Futures are little changed following slightly disappointing economic data overnight.

EU and UK flash PMIs underwhelmed as the EU Services PMI declined to 50.7 vs. (51.5) while the UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4 vs. (E) 48.5, underscoring the economic headwinds facing the EU and UK.

Today focus will stay on economic data and the two key reports are the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.3) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0).  Markets will want to see in-line to slightly weak readings but most importantly, no big jumps in the price indices like we saw in Empire and Philly earlier this week.

Other notable events today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.16 million) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 68.0) as well as two Fed speakers:  Jefferson (11:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (11:30 a.m. ET).

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Latest Bitcoin & Crypto Insights (New Regular Series)

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Latest Bitcoin & Crypto Insights (New Regular Series): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Latest Bitcoin & Crypto Insights (New Regular Series)
  • FOMC Minutes:  Why Markets Still Expect a Rate Cut in 2025

Futures are slightly lower mostly on digestion following a generally quiet night of news.

Economically, the only notable report was German PPI, which was better than expected (-1.2% vs. (E) -0.5% y/y).

Politically, there has been little progress on a debt ceiling extension (March 12th deadline) and markets are starting to notice.

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak.  The key economic reports today are Philly Fed (E: 22.7) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K) and readings that are right around expectations will be the best case for markets.  For Philly Fed specifically, investors will be watching the price indices and if they leap higher, like we saw in Tuesday’s Empire State Manufacturing Index, that will increase inflation concerns and likely weigh on stocks.

Turning to the Fed, there are multiple speakers today including Goolsbee (9:35 a.m. ET), Musalem (12:05 p.m. ET), Barr (2:30 p.m. ET) and Kugler (5:00 p.m. ET) but as long as they don’t imply the Fed is done cutting rates, they shouldn’t impact markets.

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Tom Essaye joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation

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Tom Essaye Interview With Financial Sense

This Week: Sticky Inflation and More Tariffs – Tom Essaye on Market Response

Financial expert Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation, the potential impact of new tariffs, and why the Fed may be forced to reconsider rate cuts. With the S&P 500 at record highs, Essaye warns of market vulnerability and highlights where investors should be looking now. Don’t miss this deep dive into inflation, interest rates, and market strategy!

Also, click here to view the full interview with Financial Sense published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

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Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

Why ‘The People are the Product’ for RDDT and TTD A.I. Usage

Ahead of Reddit (RDDT) earnings, shares are trading off of all-time highs. “These platforms live and die based off the usage” of its subscribers, says Tom Essaye. He adds that he likes the company’s business structure, believing the company will only become more valuable. For The Trade Desk (TTD) he says the AI story will be one to watch. Tom believes the AI technology has to make its ads more effective, targeted and valuable.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest fresh tariff threats from President Trump and more “hot” inflation data out of Europe, both of which are driving global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s House Price Index fell -5.0% in January rekindling concerns about the nation’s housing sector while UK CPI was 3.0% vs. (E) 2.8%, up from 2.5% in December, stoking inflation fears and adding upward pressure to bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.397M) before the January FOMC Meeting Minutes will come into focus in the afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

There is also one Fed speaker but not until after the close: Jefferson (5:00 p.m. ET) while we will get a few noteworthy (but not likely market-moving) earnings releases from ETSY ($0.95), CVNA ($0.32), and TOST ($0.06).

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What Yesterday’s Hot CPI Means for Markets

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What Yesterday’s Hot CPI Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Yesterday’s Hot CPI Means for Markets

Futures are little changed following a night of mixed economic data and as markets await more details on reciprocal tariffs.

Investors are waiting to learn which countries and what products will be subject to reciprocal tariffs and until that happens (maybe today or Thursday) that uncertainty will be a market headwind.

Economically, UK and EU data was slightly better than expected (UK GDP and Euro Zone IP both beat estimates).

Obviously tariff news could be market moving if we get any specifics on reciprocal tariffs but beyond that, focus will remain on economic data and due to yesterday’s hot CPI, PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) will be the most important report today.  PPI is viewed as a loose leading indicator for CPI, so if PPI runs “hot” look for another rise in Treasury yields and a headwind on stocks.  The other notable economic report today is Jobless Claims (E: 217K) and markets will want to see more Goldilocks readings (so slightly above expectations).

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MMT Chart: S&P Reaches Technical Tipping Point

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MMT Chart: S&P Reaches Technical Tipping Point: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart: Steady Targets Amid Rising Technical Risks
  • Powell Testimony Takeaways – Policy on “Hold” for Now
  • NFIB Shows Fading Optimism Among Small Business Owners

Futures are mixed but little changed and bond yields are flat ahead of today’s critical U.S. CPI release.

Economically, Italian Industrial Production fell -3.1% vs. (E) -0.2% in December which served as a reminder that Europe continues to face significant growth risks.

Traders will be keenly focused on the January CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y), and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) release before the bell this morning before focus turns back to Capitol Hill for Powell’s second day of semiannual testimony (10:00 a.m. ET).

A “hot” inflation print is a considerable risk to equities and other risk assets here as hawkish money flows could result in heavy market declines today.

Looking ahead to the afternoon, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and two additional Fed speakers to watch today: Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Waller (5:05 p.m. ET), however CPI and Powell will be the primary market-focus over the course of the session.

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Market Multiple Table: February Update

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Market Multiple Table: February Update: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table (February Update)
  • NY Fed Inflation Expectations

Stock futures are lower and yields are higher after President Trump officially announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports late yesterday, reigniting global trade war worries.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 102.8 in January from December’s multi-year highs of 105.1. The headline missed estimates of 104.7 and underscored fading post-election optimism among business owners.

There are no other economic reports today, however there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Soft demand, and subsequently higher yields could further pressure equities this afternoon with tomorrow’s CPI report in focus.

Additionally, market focus will be on Capitol Hill today as Fed Chair Powell is set to begin his semi-annual Congressional Testimony at 10:00 a.m. ET. We will also hear from the Fed’s Hammack (8:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (3:30 p.m. ET) today. A dovish tone, and further confidence in a soft economic landing will be favorable for equity markets today.

Finally, earnings season continues today with reports from SHOP ($0.43) and KO ($0.51) before the bell and SMCI ($0.54) after the close.

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This market needs Goldilocks data to continue to hold up

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This market needs Goldilocks data to continue to hold up: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Sevens Report jobs preview: The ‘market needs Goldilocks data’

In the latest Sevens Report, analysts highlighted the importance of Friday’s jobs report, stating that “if it’s Goldilocks, it’s going to help support the market amidst all this tariff and policy noise.”

However, if the report is either too strong or too weak, it could introduce further volatility and pressure on stocks.

Sevens Report emphasizes that for markets to remain stable, “this market needs Goldilocks data to continue to hold up.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on February 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Expectation for continued rate cuts this year is an important support

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Expectation for continued rate cuts this year is an important support: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch Featured on Yahoo Finance

Jobs report and Trump’s trade war hold keys to outlook for stocks

The expectation for continued rate cuts this year is an important support for the bull market, Tom Essaye, founder and president at The Sevens Report Research, wrote in a Thursday note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article featured on Yahoo Finance published on February 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.