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Is This An “Earnings vs. Everything Else” Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This An “Earnings vs. Everything Else” Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: A Sneakily Important Week for Earnings, Economic Growth and Iran
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Does May Economic Activity Stay Resilient?

Futures are extending Friday’s declines and are moderately lower as there was no progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire over the weekend.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia reported limited drone attacks on energy infrastructure and while markets still expect a ceasefire, the chances of a resumption of fighting are rising.

Economically, Chinese data was soft, as Industrial Production (4.1% vs. (E) 6.0%), Fixed Asset Investment (-1.6% vs. (E) 1.7%) and Retail Sales (0.2% vs. (E) 2.0%) all badly missed estimates.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics as President Trump is meeting with his national security team and while not the majority expectation, the chances of a resumption of direct U.S. attacks on Iran are rising (and if that happens, markets will drop). Away from geopolitics, the only notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 34) which shouldn’t move markets.

 

Tom Essaye Tells Barron’s What’s Really Supporting The Rally

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The two underpinnings of the rally are really earnings and economic growth, Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Climb Back to Record Highs. Earnings Are in Focus.

“The two underpinnings of the rally are really earnings and economic growth, and the news continues to be good,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

Essaye argues part of the risk for the market is that both strong earnings and economic growth are tied to the artificial intelligence buildout.

“That’s essentially acting like an economic stimulus program that’s boosting growth at the same time,” he says. “That’s fine—unless it stops. And then all of a sudden you’ve got a really substantial problem on your hands.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 5th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Could Earnings Be More Important than War This Week?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Could Earnings Be More Important than War This Week?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Will Earnings Be Strong Enough to Offset any Geopolitical Disappointment?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Fed Decision on Wednesday (Will They Still Point to Rate Cuts?)

Futures are little changed despite no ceasefire meeting between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend.

There were no additional ceasefire talks over the weekend but markets still view the ceasefire process as ongoing, so the “no meeting news” isn’t hitting stocks.

Economically, the only notable report was German Gfk Consumer Climate and it missed estimates (-33 vs. (E) -30).

This week could be very important for the rally as we have critical earnings, a Fed decision on Wednesday and potential progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz all looming. But, the week starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today, so any U.S./Iran ceasefire deal headlines should continue to drive markets.

On earnings, this is the most important week of the reporting season (especially Thursday) and some results we’re watching today include: VZ ($1.22), DPZ ($4.29), CLS ($1.98), NUE ($2.79) and UHS ($5.29).

 

Technical Take: Important Levels to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Take: Important Levels to Watch

Futures are mixed despite strong tech earnings and a three-week extension of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire.

Intel (INTC) surged 26% pre-market on blow out earnings and guidance and that’s helping to support futures.

Geopolitically, Israel and Lebanon extended the ceasefire but there was no more information on when the next U.S./Iran face to face talks will occur.

Today there is one economic report, Consumer Sentiment (E: 48.0) and some notable earnings, PG ($1.56), CHTR ($9.97), NSC ($2.51), HCA ($7.19), but geopolitics will remain the primary driver of markets.

To that point, while the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire is a positive, the market still only cares about the Strait of Hormuz reopening and because of that, when the next U.S./Iran talks occur will be the biggest potential catalyst today and the sooner, the better for markets.

 

A Tale of Three Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Tale of Three Markets

Futures are moderately lower as markets await the next steps in the U.S./Iran ceasefire process while tech earnings underwhelmed overnight.

There was no new U.S./Iran news overnight as markets await the details of the next in-face U.S./Iran talks.

On earnings, IBM (down 7%) and TSLA (down 3%) underwhelmed on earnings and that’s weighing on futures.

Today focus will stay on U.S./Iran and key events now are 1) When the next face to face meeting happens (chatter implies this weekend) and 2) The dual naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz (any hint they could end would be positive).

Away from the Strait of Hormuz, there are important economic reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 210K), the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.5) and the Flash Services PMI (E: 50.0) and the stronger the data, the better as it’ll push back on stagflation concerns.

Finally, earnings season continues to heat up and two important reports today are AXP ($4.03) and INTC ($-0.11).

 

Tom Essaye says banks are in a good position to know how consumers are doing

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Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said banks have a 360-degree view of most American consumers’ financial lives now.

Big banks remark on “resilience” of U.S. consumers

But what’s notable about this week’s earnings is what they say about consumers. Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said banks are in a good position to know how consumers are doing.

“They’re essentially financial supermarkets, and they really have a 360-degree view of most American consumers’ financial lives now, whether it’s through checking, loans, credit cards,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full article on Marketplace.org published on April 15th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are Equity Investors Getting Paid Enough for Their Risk?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Equity Investors Getting Paid Enough for Their Risk?

Futures are modestly weaker despite solid tech earnings overnight as AI anxiety is weighing on markets.

Earnings overnight were solid, highlighted by semiconductor company Applied Materials (AMAT) which best estimates and is rallying 11% pre-market.

Economically, the only notable report was EU Flash GDP which met estimates (1.3% y/y).

Today focus will be on CPI and the market needs a good report to help bolster sentiment and reinforce that rate cuts are coming later this year.  Expectations for CPI are E: 0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y and Core CPI (0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y).  Anything below those readings, especially in Core, will be welcomed by markets.

Earnings continue as well and notable reports today include: MRNA ($-2.60), CCJ ($0.28), AAP ($0.41).

 

The Most Important ETF in the Market Right Now

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Most Important ETF in the Market Right Now
  • Is Tech Flashing a Warning Sign for the Broader Markets?
  • What to Do, Specifically, to Diversify Away from Tech

Futures are higher following a quiet night of news thanks to better than expected software earnings.

Tech earnings were mixed as CSCO (down –7%) fell on soft margins while software company Hubspot (HUBS up 7%) rallied on a solid print, bolstering software names.

Economically, UK Monthly GDP slightly missed estimates, rising 0.1% m/m vs. (E) 0.2% m/m.

Today focus will be on economic data and specifically Jobless Claims (E: 222K).  The monthly jobs report relaxed labor market anxiety and a drop in claims will further reinforce that we’re in a Goldilocks economy.  We also get Existing Home Sales (E: 4.20 million), although that shouldn’t move markets.

Earnings continue, meanwhile, with COIN ($0.99) and AMAT ($2.19) posting results today.

 

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview – Expected, Dovish-If, and Hawkish-If Scenarios
  • Chart – Silver Goes Parabolic, up 150%+ in Three Months

Futures are trading at record highs ahead of today’s Fed decision as ASML, a top supplier for the global semiconductor industry, posted strong earnings and optimistic guidance overnight, fueling a resurgence in mega-cap tech and growth stocks overnight.

Economically, the German GfK Consumer Climate Index edged up from -26.9 to -24.1 vs. (E) -25.5 but the release did not materially move markets.

There are no notable economic reports today which will leave investors focused on the Fed today with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference shortly after at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Beyond the Fed, the first mega-cap U.S. tech companies will release earnings today including MSFT ($3.88), META ($8.32), TSLA ($0.33), and IBM ($4.33). Other noteworthy names releasing quarterly earnings today include: GEV ($3.03), T ($0.46), and PGR ($4.44).

In order for stocks to continue higher, investors will be looking for a benign (dovish-leaning) Fed decision and strong tech earnings like we saw from ASML overnight which would have the potential to power the major indexes further into record territory.

 

The Bar Has Been Lowered Says Tom Essaye

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Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

UAL Earnings Seek to Reverse Airline Caution Signaled by DAL

“The bar has been lowered” for United Airlines (UAL) after Delta Airlines (DAL) signaled caution in its earnings, says Tom Essaye. He sees investors focusing on guidance and whether United can weather global volatility. Tom tells investors to listen for commentary surrounding international travel, price cuts, and fuel impacts. Tom White helps investors navigate the options front through an example trade.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on January 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.