September Bitcoin Update and Outlook
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Tag Archive for: earnings
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How ORCL Earnings Explain the Opportunities and Risks in AI
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- How ORCL Earnings Explain the Opportunities and Risks in AI
Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet night of news as investors digested the better than expected PPI report and looked ahead to today’s all-important CPI.
Economically, the only notable number was Japanese PPI which was better than expected, rising 2.7% y/y vs. (E ) 2.8% y/y. Japanese stocks rallied 1% in response.
Today brings the highlight of the week, CPI, and expectations are as follows: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y. A better-than-expected headline will solidify rate cut expectations and push back on stagflation concerns and that should be a solid market positive. A “hot” number, however, will put three rate cuts before year-end in doubt and almost certainly pressure stocks.
Other events today include an ECB Rate Decision (E: No Changed), Jobless Claims (E: 234K) and some notable earnings reports: KR ($1.00), ADBE ($4.21), RH ($3.20).
Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- MMT Levels S&P 500 Chart – September Update
Futures are solidly higher this morning thanks to strong tech earnings as traders await key U.S. inflation data.
ORCL shares are surging 30%+ in the pre-market as a measure of future revenue jumped $455B or 359% Y/Y in Q2 thanks to new AI-related cloud contracts.
Economically, Chinese CPI fell -0.4% vs. (E) -0.2% which is helping ease worries about a global resurgence in price pressures due to the trade war.
Today, trader focus will be on inflation data early with the August PPI report due out ahead of the bell (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.3% y/y).
After the open, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and investors will want to see ongoing signs of strong demand for Treasuries to shore up increasingly dovish Fed expectations.
Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there is one notable company reporting quarterly results today: CHWY ($0.14).
Market Technical Assessment: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- Market Technical Assessment: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum
Futures are flat following very slightly underwhelming NVDA earnings amidst an otherwise quiet night of news.
NVDA beat earnings and revenue estimates but guidance didn’t meet very elevated expectations. NVDA is down –2% pre-market but results weren’t disappointing enough to shake broader AI enthusiasm (so the slightly underwhelming NVDA earnings shouldn’t impact the broader market).
Today focus will be on economic data and the key report is Weekly Jobless Claims (E: 230K). Claims jumped last week and if that continues this week we’ll see a small uptick in labor market anxiety ahead of next Friday’s jobs report (which could put a headwind on markets today). Other economic reports today include Revised Q2 GDP (E: 3.1%) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.2%) while we also have one Fed Speaker, Waller at 6:00 p.m. ET. However, barring a major negative surprise, all of that is unlikely to move markets.
On the earnings front, the reports continue and important results we’re watching today include: BBY ($1.22), MRVL ($0.51) and DELL ($2.09).
Why NVDA Earnings Are So Important
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- Why NVDA Earnings Are So Important
- Why Markets Shrugged Off the Trump-Cook Drama
- Durable Goods and Case-Shiller Data Takeaways
Futures are flat after a mostly quiet night of news as global traders await AI-behemoth NVDA’s quarterly earnings (due out after the close today).
Economically, Australian CPI jumped from 1.9% to 2.8% vs. (E) 2.3% in July, the latest global inflation release to surprise to the upside which is adding to concerns about a resurgence in price pressures across major economies as a result of the trade war.
There are no noteworthy economic releases in the U.S. today and just one Fed official scheduled to speak: Barkin (12:00 p.m. ET).
There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact markets (yesterday’s solid 2-Yr auction results added a tailwind to the afternoon equity rally) with investors looking for more signs of strong demand.
With the limited list of catalysts today, markets should be quiet and trade with a positioning-style tone as investors await earnings from KSS ($0.33), ANF ($2.27), RY ($2.36), NVDA ($0.94), SNOW (-$0.57), HPQ ($0.75), and CRWD (-$0.19).
NVDA’s results will clearly be the primary focus as the chip-making giant accounts for roughly ~8% of the entire S&P 500; a miss could spark meaningful volatility while a positive surprise would likely see the major indexes make a run at all-time highs.
Is the NOB Spread Signaling a “Run Hot” Economy?
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- Is the NOB Spread Signaling a “Run Hot” Economy?
Futures are in the red but off their overnight lows as traders digest President Trump’s latest efforts to “fire” Fed Governor Cook, rekindling “Fed independence” concerns.
Economically, French Consumer Confidence fell 2 points to 87 vs. (E) 89 in August while Prime Minister Bayrou has called for a confidence vote on September 8, surrounding budget concerns which introduces a renewed sense of market uncertainty in Europe.
Looking into today’s session there are multiple noteworthy economic reports to watch today including Durable Goods (E: -4.0%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 2.6%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.0%), and likely most importantly, Consumer Confidence (E: 96.4).
There is one Fed official scheduled to speak: Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) as well as a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which could impact Treasuries and impact equity market trading today.
Finally, a handful of late season earnings releases are due out including: BMO ($2.12), BNS ($1.28), and OKTA ($0.33), but the main earnings catalyst this week will be NVDA’s release later in the week.
Is There Any Value Left in Tech?
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- Is There Any Value Left in Tech?
- Jackson Hole Powell Speech Preview
- EIA and Oil Market Analysis
Futures are slightly lower despite generally solid economic data overnight.
EU and UK August flash PMIs were mostly solid, with Composite PMIs rising for both regions and staying above 50.
Today is a busy day of economic data and the key reports, in order of importance, are: Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.7), Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0), Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Philly Fed (E: 8.0), Existing Home Sales (E: 3.90 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%). Especially with the flash PMIs, solid data that pushes back on any slowdown narrative will be welcomed by stocks. There is also one Fed speaker today, Bostic at 7:30 a.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.
On earnings, notable retailer results continue today with WMT ($0.73), while there are some other notable reports as well: BILI ($0.08), ZM ($0.77), INTU ($1.30), WDAY ($0.80), ROST ($1.52).
Market Concentration Risks Warrant Attention
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- Market Concentration Risks Warrant Attention
- Housing Starts Data Takeaways
Futures are modestly lower but off session lows as the recent tech-led stock market pullback is being digested as the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium comes into focus.
Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% on the headline and 2.3% on the core figure which is easing recently elevated concerns about a broad-based resurgence in global inflation pressures, subsequently helping equities bounce off the lows.
There are no economic reports today, however the July FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and investors will be scouring the details for any new insights on Fed policy plans for H2’25.
Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Waller (11:00 a.m. ET) and Bostic (3:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on investor growth/inflation expectations (and therefore could most stocks).
Finally, retailers continue to dominate earnings news this week with multiple notable major corporations reporting quarterly results today including: TGT ($2.09), EL ($0.08), TJX ($1.01), LOW ($4.23), BIDU ($1.32), and COTY ($0.01). Evidence of ongoing consumer resilience would be a positive for risk assets and likely help stocks stabilize from the early week pullback today.
Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)
- Gold Chart: Fragile Record Highs
Futures are flat as traders look ahead to today’s all-important CPI report.
Economically, the U.K.’s Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.7%, as expected, while the German ZEW Survey missed estimates, but the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 vs. (E) 98.9 from 98.6 in June.
Today, market focus will be almost exclusively on inflation data before the bell with CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.
After the open, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET) and Schmid (10:30 a.m. ET), and any comments or insights they may offer in reaction to the CPI data could move markets.
Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are a handful of companies due to report quarterly results today which could move markets, including: CAH ($2.03), SE ($0.72), RGTI ($-0.05), HRB ($2.81), CRCL ($-1.29), and ETOR ($0.49).
MMT Chart: A “Relatively” Different Look at Stocks
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- August MMT Chart Update: A “Relatively” Different Look at Stocks
- ISM Services Index – A Fresh “Whiff” of Stagflation
- Stagflation Risks Set Gold Up for Run to Record Highs
Futures are tracking global markets higher this morning as investors shrug off both the ISM Services Index from yesterday, which carried a whiff of stagflation, and soft earnings from semiconductor giants AMD (-7%) and SMCI (-17%) after the close yesterday.
Economically, EU Retail Sales rose 3.1% vs. (E) 2.6% which is serving to tamp down worries about the health of the global economy.
Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released.
However, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and investors will look for the recent trend of healthy demand metrics to continue, despite the sharp drop in yields since Friday’s dismal jobs report.
Additionally, there are a few Fed officials scheduled to speak who could shed light on the prospects of a September rate cut (which is increasingly expected) including Cook & Collins (2:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (3:10 p.m. ET).
Finally, earnings season continues with MCD ($3.15), UBER ($0.62), SHOP ($0.20), DIS ($1.47), NRG ($1.54), ABNB ($0.93), and ET ($0.32) all reporting quarterly results today.
For now, investors are overlooking the soft semiconductor earnings from late yesterday, however, any Q2 results that challenge the idea that the consumer remains resilient and healthy in 2025, could add to recession worries and pressure stocks again today.