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Are Equity Investors Getting Paid Enough for Their Risk?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Equity Investors Getting Paid Enough for Their Risk?

Futures are modestly weaker despite solid tech earnings overnight as AI anxiety is weighing on markets.

Earnings overnight were solid, highlighted by semiconductor company Applied Materials (AMAT) which best estimates and is rallying 11% pre-market.

Economically, the only notable report was EU Flash GDP which met estimates (1.3% y/y).

Today focus will be on CPI and the market needs a good report to help bolster sentiment and reinforce that rate cuts are coming later this year.  Expectations for CPI are E: 0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y and Core CPI (0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y).  Anything below those readings, especially in Core, will be welcomed by markets.

Earnings continue as well and notable reports today include: MRNA ($-2.60), CCJ ($0.28), AAP ($0.41).

 

The Most Important ETF in the Market Right Now

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Most Important ETF in the Market Right Now
  • Is Tech Flashing a Warning Sign for the Broader Markets?
  • What to Do, Specifically, to Diversify Away from Tech

Futures are higher following a quiet night of news thanks to better than expected software earnings.

Tech earnings were mixed as CSCO (down –7%) fell on soft margins while software company Hubspot (HUBS up 7%) rallied on a solid print, bolstering software names.

Economically, UK Monthly GDP slightly missed estimates, rising 0.1% m/m vs. (E) 0.2% m/m.

Today focus will be on economic data and specifically Jobless Claims (E: 222K).  The monthly jobs report relaxed labor market anxiety and a drop in claims will further reinforce that we’re in a Goldilocks economy.  We also get Existing Home Sales (E: 4.20 million), although that shouldn’t move markets.

Earnings continue, meanwhile, with COIN ($0.99) and AMAT ($2.19) posting results today.

 

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview – Expected, Dovish-If, and Hawkish-If Scenarios
  • Chart – Silver Goes Parabolic, up 150%+ in Three Months

Futures are trading at record highs ahead of today’s Fed decision as ASML, a top supplier for the global semiconductor industry, posted strong earnings and optimistic guidance overnight, fueling a resurgence in mega-cap tech and growth stocks overnight.

Economically, the German GfK Consumer Climate Index edged up from -26.9 to -24.1 vs. (E) -25.5 but the release did not materially move markets.

There are no notable economic reports today which will leave investors focused on the Fed today with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference shortly after at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Beyond the Fed, the first mega-cap U.S. tech companies will release earnings today including MSFT ($3.88), META ($8.32), TSLA ($0.33), and IBM ($4.33). Other noteworthy names releasing quarterly earnings today include: GEV ($3.03), T ($0.46), and PGR ($4.44).

In order for stocks to continue higher, investors will be looking for a benign (dovish-leaning) Fed decision and strong tech earnings like we saw from ASML overnight which would have the potential to power the major indexes further into record territory.

 

The Bar Has Been Lowered Says Tom Essaye

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Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

UAL Earnings Seek to Reverse Airline Caution Signaled by DAL

“The bar has been lowered” for United Airlines (UAL) after Delta Airlines (DAL) signaled caution in its earnings, says Tom Essaye. He sees investors focusing on guidance and whether United can weather global volatility. Tom tells investors to listen for commentary surrounding international travel, price cuts, and fuel impacts. Tom White helps investors navigate the options front through an example trade.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on January 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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January Market Multiple Table Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart

Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum from Thursday’s rally and following a quiet night that was devoid of any material earnings or economic data.

Oil is higher by 1% on reports the U.S. is moving military assets back into the Mid-East, implying the chances of a strike on Iran did not decrease as much as thought.

Today there are two economic reports, Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) and Housing Market Index (E: 40) as well as two Fed speakers: Bowman (11:00 a.m. ET) and Jefferson (3:30 p.m. ET), but barring a major surprise, none of that should move markets ahead of the long weekend.

Instead, focus will stay on Washington and any reports, headlines or social media posts that 1) Imply more attacks on the Fed or 2) Hint at military action in Iran, Greenland, Mexico, etc. will weigh on stocks.

Finally, on the earnings front, the week has been mostly focused on bank results and that continues this morning with several regional reports: PNC ($4.23), STT ($2.82), RF ($0.61), MTB ($4.44).

What Caused the Government Shutdown (And Why That’s Important to Markets)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Caused the Government Shutdown (And Why That’s Important to Markets)

Futures are slightly lower despite strong CSCO earnings and the government officially reopening.

CSCO posted solid results and the stock is up 6% pre-market but the recent AI skepticism remains in place and the earnings aren’t keying a broader rally.

Politically, the government shutdown officially ended, removing what was an increasing economic headwind.

There are no economic reports today (now that the government is reopened, we will await a new schedule of backlogged releases) but there are several Fed speakers:  Daly (8:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (10:30 a.m. ET), Musalem (12:15 p.m. ET) and Hammack (12:20 p.m. ET).  If their commentary further pushes back on expectations for a December rate cut, that will pressure stocks.

 

Why Stocks Dropped Yesterday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped Yesterday

Futures are weaker this morning but off session lows as investors digest underwhelming earnings from AI-sensitive SMCI and AMD ahead of key economic data today.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Final Composite PMI firmed to 52.5 vs. (E) 52.2 in October from 51.2 in September which is helping to ease concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 28K), Flash Composite PMI (E: 54.8), and ISM Services PMI (E: 51.0) all due to be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 4-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on investor expectations for a December rate cut.

Earnings season continues as well today with notable companies reporting including: NVO ($0.77), MCD ($3.35), HUM ($2.91), HOOD ($0.51), APP ($2.37), IONQ ($-0.44), and QCOM ($2.33).

 

New Sevens Report Special Report Coming Next Wednesday: How Bad Is the U.S. Debt Situation?

We’re continuing our Sevens Report Special Report series, and in the latest release, we’ll be taking an in-depth look at one of the most important, and popular, topics among investors: The U.S. debt situation.

We’ve all heard the warnings: The U.S. debt situation is unsustainable and a long-term threat to the markets and the economy. Well, your clients and prospects have heard these warnings too, so we wanted to produce an in-depth special report that takes an independent, fact-based look at the U.S. debt situation.

In this Sevens Report Special Report we: 1) Take a comprehensive look at the U.S. $37.4 trillion debt burden, 2) Explore historical comparisons to rising and declining empires, 3) Examine the implications of the looming $9.2 trillion “maturity wall” and 4) Evaluate threats to dollar dominance.

Like previous Sevens Report Special Reports, this report will both be branded as Sevens Report Research and as a “white labeled” version, allowing you to brand this robust and in-depth report as your own using your firm’s logo and other marketing materials. Both versions are included with a purchase.

Bottom line, the U.S. debt situation will be a major long-term influence on markets and investor portfolios, and the level of interest in U.S. debt, especially among more sophisticated investors, is high.

This special report can not only help explain the situation and put it in proper context, but also differentiate you from the competition by showing you’re focused on both the near-term and long-term risks to clients’ wealth. Please email info@sevensreport.com to learn more or to pre-order this special report.

 

Updated Market Outlook (Post Earnings, Trade Truce and Fed Decision)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook (Post Earnings, Trade Truce and Fed Decision)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will the Shutdown End This Week? (If Not, Possible Market Headwind)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  ISM PMIs and ADP Are Important This Week

Futures are solidly higher mostly on momentum following a generally quiet weekend of news.

There was no disruptive news over the weekend so investors focused on the results of last week:  1) Continued AI Enthusiasm, 2) Trade truce and 3) Fed rate cut/end of QT.

Economically, EU and UK manufacturing PMIs met expectations (50 and 49.7 respectively).

Today we do get some potentially important economic data via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.4) and markets will want to see stability (so not falling too far from 50).  On the Fed front, there are two speakers today, Daly (12:00 p.m. ET) and Cook (2:00 p.m. ET) and the more dovish their commentary, the better for markets (given recent uncertainty around a December rate cut).

Finally, on the earnings front, ON ($0.59), PLTR ($0.12) and two moderately important AI linked tech companies, so markets will want to see solid results from both.

 

Five Concerning Market Breadth Developments

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Five Concerning Market Breadth Developments

Futures are modestly higher thanks to better than expected tech earnings.

APPL and AMZN both beat estimates and the stocks are rallying 2% and 12% respectively pre-market and pushing futures higher.

Economically, Chinese PMIs were mixed as the manufacturing PMI slightly missed estimates (49 vs. (E) 49.6).

There are no economic reports today but there are two Fed speakers, Logan (9:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET) and given Powell’s hawkish surprise earlier in the week, markets will want to hear a dovish tone from both.

On earnings, the heart of the season is now over but there are still some notable reports today including: XOM ($1.78), CVX ($1.66) and ABBV ($1.77).

Finally, with President Trump back in the U.S., focus will shift to the government shutdown and any chatter about a resolution will be a mild market positive.

 

Fed Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Abbreviated FOMC Preview
  • Housing Data Takeaways

Futures are trading at all-time highs ahead of the Fed decision and multiple Mag-7 earnings releases due out after the close as President Trump made optimistic remarks about his three-hour meeting with President Xi tomorrow.

Economically, Australian CPI jumped to 3.2% vs. (E) 3.0%, up 1.1% from Q2’s reading of 2.1%.

Today, there are a few “second-tiered” economic reports due to be released including International Trade in Goods (E: $-90.0B), Wholesale inventories (E: -0.2%), and Pending Home Sales (E: 1.0%) but their market impact should be limited given the looming Fed decision.

It’s Fed Day with the FOMC Meeting Announcement due to hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Aside from the Fed decision, which could have a material impact on markets today despite the looming Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow, we are getting into peak earnings season with quarterly results due from major U.S. companies including VZ ($1.19), BA (-$2.46), CVS ($1.36), CAT ($4.52), META ($6.61), MSFT ($3.65), GOOGL ($2.26), and CMG ($0.28).