“To say a lot has transpired in the markets over the past three weeks would be an understatement,” Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye wrote in a Thursday note to clients. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are little changed this morning while bond yields are moving higher with the 2-Yr Note yield notably trading above 4% as banking fears continue to ease although markets still remain on edge.
There were no market moving economic reports overnight and news wires were generally quiet.
Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released in the U.S. including: International Trade in Goods (E: -$90.0B), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 3.7%), FHFA House Price Index (E: -0.2%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 101.0).
Shortly after the open, the Fed’s Barr will testify before the Senate beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET regarding the recent banking turmoil and state of the financial industry. Any negative comments or developments during the testimony that weighs on bank shares will very likely drag down the broader market.
Looking to the afternoon, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact the broader bond market and move stocks.
Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye warned in a Tuesday note that the most recent market gains could be little more than a “head fake rally,” explaining that the Federal Reserve’s actions to protect depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank could actually cause inflation to linger even longer. Click here to read the full article.
The jobs report once again carries risks for stocks because if it runs ‘too hot,’ that will increase the prospects of more hikes and, more importantly, delay when markets expect rates will be cut, Sevens Report said. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are solidly higher this morning, rebounding from last week’s more than 5% selloff while global markets stabilized following a mostly quiet weekend.
President Biden and St. Louis Fed President, Jim Bullard, both downplayed the threat of a severe recession on Monday which is helping drive risk-on money flows this morning while there were no market-moving economic reports overnight.
From a catalyst standpoint, there is just one economic report today: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.40M) and two Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Mester (12:00 p.m. ET) and Barkin (3:30 p.m. ET).
Bottom line, for this morning’s relief rally to continue today the market will need to see stable price action in bond markets, economic data meet or beat expectations and Fed officials to maintain an optimistic tone as that could see the S&P 500 test near term resistance between 3,780 and 3,840.
Yields on the 10-year Treasury shot up 3.5 basis points on Tuesday to their…market analyst Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, said in a note. Click here to read the full article.
Futures are modestly higher thanks to continued momentum from Tuesday’s…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
That can tend to let the Dow be more volatile. It can also be skewed more by one stock, it gives you a glimpse of the economy that other indexes don’t. And the fact that companies…said Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Going forward, investors should monitor the 10-year Treasury yield to see if it goes above 1.74%, wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research in a note. That’s the bond’s recent closing high, “and if the 10-year yield breaks those levels we can…” Essaye wrote. Click here to read the full article.
Additionally, sentiment is positive as vaccinations in the U.S. and around the world continue. On Monday, the Dow closed with an over 374 point gain or 1.13%. Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, stated that “futures are modestly higher on momentum from…” Click here to read the full article.
