Does Dow Theory Outperform? (Yes)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Good Question on Dow Theory Returns Over the Years

Stock futures are little changed this morning while bond yields are moving higher with the 2-Yr Note yield notably trading above 4% as banking fears continue to ease although markets still remain on edge.

There were no market moving economic reports overnight and news wires were generally quiet.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released in the U.S. including: International Trade in Goods (E: -$90.0B), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 3.7%), FHFA House Price Index (E: -0.2%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 101.0).

Shortly after the open, the Fed’s Barr will testify before the Senate beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET regarding the recent banking turmoil and state of the financial industry. Any negative comments or developments during the testimony that weighs on bank shares will very likely drag down the broader market.

Looking to the afternoon, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact the broader bond market and move stocks.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes on March 14th, 2023

‘Head Fake Rally’? Dow Jumps 400 Points On Bank Stocks’ $37 Billion Recovery

Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye warned in a Tuesday note that the most recent market gains could be little more than a “head fake rally,” explaining that the Federal Reserve’s actions to protect depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank could actually cause inflation to linger even longer. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Quoted in MorningStar on September 2nd, 2022

EMEA Morning Briefing: Stocks Seen Higher But Caution Likely Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report

The jobs report once again carries risks for stocks because if it runs ‘too hot,’ that will increase the prospects of more hikes and, more importantly, delay when markets expect rates will be cut, Sevens Report said. Click here to read the full article.

When Could the Selling Stop?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • When Could the Selling Stop?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Stock futures are solidly higher this morning, rebounding from last week’s more than 5% selloff while global markets stabilized following a mostly quiet weekend.

President Biden and St. Louis Fed President, Jim Bullard, both downplayed the threat of a severe recession on Monday which is helping drive risk-on money flows this morning while there were no market-moving economic reports overnight.

From a catalyst standpoint, there is just one economic report today: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.40M) and two Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Mester (12:00 p.m. ET) and Barkin (3:30 p.m. ET).

Bottom line, for this morning’s relief rally to continue today the market will need to see stable price action in bond markets, economic data meet or beat expectations and Fed officials to maintain an optimistic tone as that could see the S&P 500 test near term resistance between 3,780 and 3,840.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes on September 28, 2021

Dow Sinks 500 Points As Spiking Treasury Yields Drive Forceful Tech Stock Sell-Off

Yields on the 10-year Treasury shot up 3.5 basis points on Tuesday to their…market analyst Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, said in a note. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on July 21, 2021

Chipotle Rises, Netflix Falls, and the Dow Continues Rebounding

Futures are modestly higher thanks to continued momentum from Tuesday’s…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Marketplace on May 26, 2021

The Dow at 125: Why it endures

That can tend to let the Dow be more volatile. It can also be skewed more by one stock, it gives you a glimpse of the economy that other indexes don’t. And the fact that companies…said Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on May 20, 2021

The Dow Rose 188 Points Because Tech Stocks Are Buys When Rates Fall

Going forward, investors should monitor the 10-year Treasury yield to see if it goes above 1.74%, wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research in a note. That’s the bond’s recent closing high, “and if the 10-year yield breaks those levels we can…” Essaye wrote. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in on April 6, 2021

Penny Stocks, News, Momentum, Oh My!

Additionally, sentiment is positive as vaccinations in the U.S. and around the world continue. On Monday, the Dow closed with an over 374 point gain or 1.13%. Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, stated that “futures are modestly higher on momentum from…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye

Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on September 30, 2019

“On Saturday, the Treasury Department stated it’s not considering blocking Chinese companies from listing on U.S. exchanges ‘at this time,’ refuting the Bloomberg story from Friday, which caused the declines in stocks…” wrote Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, in a note to clients. Click here to read the full article.

IT person in front on multiple screens