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If Nvidia’s earnings are soft, you’ll see some weakness in tech

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If Nvidia’s earnings are soft, you’ll see some weakness in tech: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Why the Stock Market Can Rally, Even if Nvidia Earnings Disappoint

“I think if Nvidia’s earnings are soft, you’ll see some weakness in tech, especially, although I don’t think that a bad Nvidia earnings print carries with it the same danger that it would have seen in February or November,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

“While a bad Nvidia print will be bad for tech and probably bad for the S&P 500, because tech is such a big weight, for things like the Dow, the Russell 1000, RSP (the equal-weight S&P 500), I don’t think it’s a derailing event,” Essaye says. “I’d probably be looking to buy any dip on that.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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A near-term technical signal of potential exhaustion in the latest leg higher in stocks.

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A near-term technical signal: Tom Essaye, publisher of Sevens Report Research, Quoted in MarketWatch

Dow’s ‘lack of conviction’ at 40K is a troubling sign for stocks

Ultimately, they finished near their lows of the day. Tom Essaye, publisher of Sevens Report Research, described this turnaround as “a near-term technical signal of potential exhaustion in the latest leg higher in stocks.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on May 17th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on April 9th, 2024.

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Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that with not much on the calendar Tuesday

Dow Closes Flat Ahead of CPI Report

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that with not much on the calendar Tuesday, traders were looking ahead to Wednesday’s consumer price index report, as well as updates on producer prices and the start of earnings season on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

“The Wednesday-Thursday-Friday of this week has the potential to provide some surprises or, conversely, reinforce what everybody hopes is going to happen,” Essaye says. “I think that what we’re seeing today is people just sort of biding their time, doing a little bit of positioning, making sure their risk tolerance is appropriate as we head into tomorrow’s 8:30 a.m. CPI release.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 9th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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The Fed is going to cut at some point—but nobody knows when

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The Fed is going to cut at some point—but nobody knows when: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Dow Drops 300 Points as Indexes Turn Down

Traders were looking ahead to Wednesday’s consumer price index. Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye says traders seem to be biding their time, making sure their risk tolerance is appropriate heading into the 8:30 a.m. CPI release, especially with not much in the way of economic data or earnings in the meantime.

“We’re at this point where we all know the Fed is going to cut at some point—but nobody knows when—and it’s all going to be up to the data,” he says. “And there’s really not a lot else to focus on. So we’re all just sort of lurched from one data point to the other in this market right now. This is the way it gets when you get to long drawn out transitions in policy.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 9th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Hedging Up Ahead Of The Results

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Hedging Up Ahead Of The Results: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Nvidia Weighs on Tech Stocks Ahead of Earnings

“I think what you’re seeing is just some hedging up ahead of the results,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s in a phone interview. “I think that’s part of it. The other part of it is you’re still seeing some follow through from Friday selling, too, as people are getting, not nervous about a rebound in inflation, but a little less sure that inflation is just going to keep going straight down in a line.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on February 20th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to Rally

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The Burden Of Proof Lies Squarely With The Bears

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Futures Are Slightly Higher: Sevens Report Quoted in Investing.com

Despite the S&P 500 rally, there are a number of risks emerging – Sevens Report

The burden of proof lies squarely with the bears and so far, the economic data and Fed speak hasn’t done enough to disprove any of those four bullish factors,” wrote the firm.

However, Sevens Research said the reality is there are still a number of risks emerging that need to be watched, and amidst 5k euphoria, they think that needs to be pointed out.

“Yes, data has pointed to a sweet spot for growth, inflation and the Fed. But that won’t last forever and there will be bad news for this market, there always is,” they added.

The firm notes that the risks that have quietly grown in the background during the rally are the chances of rate cut disappointment, the growing list of layoffs, commercial real estate, and valuations.

“Bottom line, it’s important to acknowledge that this rally has been driven by actual good news and bullish expectations being reinforced by actual data. At the same time, the risks that kept investors worried in October (and even throughout 2023) haven’t been vanquished—they simply haven’t shown up, yet,” concluded Sevens.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on February 13th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Table: December Update

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Market Multiple Table: December Update: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – December Update (Unbranded Copy Available)
  • Chart – 10-Yr Yield Violates Long-Term Uptrend, 2023 Lows in Focus

Stock futures are slightly higher and bond yields are falling modestly this morning. This is as traders digest a dovish BOJ decision and largely in-line Eurozone inflation report.

The Bank of Japan left their benchmark policy rate unchanged at -0.10%. With no hint of a January rate hike sending the yen down >1% and the Nikkei up nearly 1.5% overnight.

Economically, the Eurozone HICP Narrow-Core inflation rate favorably fell from 4.2% to 3.6% last month, meeting estimates.

Looking at today’s potential market catalysts, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.360 million), and two Fed officials are to speak: Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET) and Goolsbee (6:00 p.m. ET).

Lastly, as long as the housing market data is not a big shock, the release shouldn’t move markets this morning while Bostic’s comments will be closely watched to see if he joins Daly and others from the Fed in acknowledging concerns about the labor market (which would add a dovish tailwind).

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Stock Rally, 1o-Yr Treasury Yield, and Fed Policy

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Stock Rally, Treasury Yield, and Fed Policy: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Dow ends nearly 400 points higher as tech rally leads stocks to highest close since September

But the subsequent rally for stocks after the Nov. 1 Fed meeting, with the S&P 500 jumping more than 6% over eight days, and a 50 basis point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield were “overdone and not governed by facts,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note.
“Meanwhile, if we think about what the Fed said last week, namely that the rise in the 10-year treasury yield was doing the Fed’s work for it and as a result they may not have to hike rates, then the short/sharp decline in the 10-year yield we’ve seen could essentially remove the reason for the Fed not having to hike rates — and that could put a rate hike back on the table!” he wrote. “That’s essentially what Powell reminded us of yesterday and that, along with the poor Treasury auction, pushed yields higher,” setting up pressure on stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article published by MSN on November 11th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Treasury Yield

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Rising Geopolitical Tensions

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Rising Geopolitical Tensions: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

Dow, S&P 500 flip positive to start week after Hamas attacks Israel

The attack by Hamas on Israel raised fears of a broader conflict, sending crude prices jumping. And spurring haven-related support for gold, the dollar and U.S. Treasury futures. The cash Treasury market is closed for the Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day holiday.

“The human tragedy and geopolitical implications aside, from a market standpoint the attack matters because rising geopolitical tensions mean higher oil prices and the higher oil goes, the stronger the additional headwind on stocks and bonds,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note.

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on October 9th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Focus Remains on Treasury Yields Today

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Today’s Focus Remains on Treasury Yields – Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Dow edges up as stocks look to rebound ahead of coming inflation, retail sales data

U.S. stock indexes were up as of Monday afternoon, with consumer discretionary shares and several technology companies leading the broader market higher, as traders braced for a busy week of economic data releases.

“No major U.S. economic data is set for release on Monday, so the focus will remain on Treasury yields”, said Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report Research. 

“If yields are relatively stable, then stocks can rebound from last week’s losses”, Essaye said in an email.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on today’s market insights sign up here.

Treasury Yields

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more… To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.