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The OPEC+ Decision Was A Clear Disappointment

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The OPEC+ Decision Was A Clear Disappointment: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices stretch loss to a 4th session in a row to settle at lowest since July

“The OPEC+ decision was a clear disappointment last week due to both the underwhelming amount of additional [oil] output curbs and the voluntary nature of the 2024 policy cuts,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“The market didn’t buy it, however, as the bears are pressing OPEC+ for more clarity on the long-term outlook for policy plans and reassurance that the group is willing to do ‘whatever it takes’ to keep oil near or above $80/barrel,” Richey told MarketWatch on Tuesday.

“Looking ahead, the price action in oil has become increasingly heavy, and if there is not some sort of positive or bullish market catalyst ahead, we are likely to see a test of the 2023 lows in the $67/barrel area” for WTI, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Tuesday note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on December 5th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

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EIA Data Changes: Impact on Oil Inventories

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EIA Data Changes: Impact on Oil Inventories: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Why the U.S. government is changing the way it collects data on the oil market

It appears that previous data collection processes had “‘loopholes’. Which allowed certain condensates and ‘other oils’ to not be reported in inventories. But now will require them to report in total oil inventory figures,” he said.

Looking through the changes to the EIA’s data collection process, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, said it was “not very clear exactly how the data will be affected.”

The simplest takeaway is that the next effect of this change should result in oil inventories being higher than they previously were, said Richey.

The EIA in March explained the difference in its estimates of supply. As disposition had increased in its U.S. crude-oil balances it was studying the growing difference. It identified ways in which it has been “overstating disposition and understating supply.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on November 15th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tighter Financial Conditions

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Tighter Financial Conditions: Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Oil prices finish lower with concerns of an economic slowdown raising prospects for a supply surplus

The initial drop in oil upon the release of the Fed decision “seemed to be in reaction to the addition of the phrase ‘tighter financial conditions’ for households and businesses,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research told MarketWatch. The added wording “implies demand is likely to suffer in the near-to-medium term.”
“With longer-term demand expectations fading with the latest string of disappointing global economic reports we received this week, there is growing concern the physical markets will tip into a surplus in the months or quarter ahead,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article published by MSN on November 2nd, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Oil Futures Briefly Plunged To New Session Lows

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Oil Futures Briefly Plunged To New Session Lows: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices mark first gain in 4 sessions as risks of market disruptions in the Middle East remain

Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, pointed out that during Wednesday’s session, oil futures briefly plunged to new session lows after a preliminary news headline crossed the wires about Israel agreeing to delay a ground invasion of Gaza, but reports then said the provided reason for the delay was that the Israeli military was awaiting the arrival of U.S. missile support.

All of that “suggests an invasion is still imminent — just not right at this moment,” Richey said.

An implied measure of consumer gasoline demand, known as total motor gasoline supplied, was “largely steady with its smoother four-week moving average rising to a more-than-one-month-high,” said Sevens Report’s Richey. “That firming demand metric amid an unexpected drop in refinery runs last week is likely to result in some near-term pressure on supply, which is bullish for energy prices.”

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on October 25th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Futures

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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An Invasion of Gaza by Israel Remains Imminent

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An invasion of Gaza: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Are Rising Ahead of Big Week for Earnings

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 215 points, or 0.6%, shortly after the market opened on Monday. The S&P 500 was up 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%.

“Futures are slightly higher as the weekend brought no major changes to the current macro-economic set up,” wrote Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye earlier Monday morning. “Geopolitically, an invasion of Gaza by Israel remains imminent but so far the conflict hasn’t expanded regionally and oil is little changed as a result.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on October 16th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Israel Readies For A Potential Invasion

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Crude Oil Prices May Impact Inflation

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Crude Oil Prices May Impact Inflation: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman Stocks Notch Best Days In Years Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict

Defense stocks surged while the broader market dipped Monday as Wall Street sifted through the market fallout of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which escalated this weekend by the latter’s historic attack.

Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye attributed this early slump to “rising geopolitical tensions,” pointing to how the related surge in crude oil prices may impact inflation and thus could keep monetary policy tighter.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on Octobe 9th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Crude Oil Prices May Impact Inflation

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Oil Futures End Lower

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Oil futures end lower: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MorningStar

Oil futures end lower as demand worries outweigh forecasts for supply deficit

The latest U.S. inflation reading ran on the “hot side,” especially on the core figure, which will “bolster the case for a ‘higher for longer’ Fed policy rate outlook, said Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research. That raises the threat that the central bank “chokes off growth and sends the economy into recession,” which is never a good scenario for oil demand.

Also, click here to view the full MorningStar article published on September 13th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Futures

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What CPI Means for Markets

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What CPI Means for Markets: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What CPI Means for Markets (Four Takeaways)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly higher thanks to more Chinese economic stimulus and as markets await the ECB decision and important economic data later this morning.

China cut bank reserve requirements by 25 bps in the latest step to help support the Chinese economy and there are signs these measures are starting to have an impact.

Economically, there were no important reports overnight.

Today will be a busy day starting with the ECB Meeting and the market expects a 25 bps hike. But it’ll be a close call and no hike and hawkish rhetoric shouldn’t be a shock.

Lastly, there are multiple important reports today including: Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Retail Sales (E: 0.2%), Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.2% y/y), and PPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 1.3% y/y).  Bottom line, markets want Goldilocks data, especially from the jobs report and Control Group in retail sales. Because that data will show easing wage pressures and resilient consumer spending.

What CPI Means

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here. 

The Fundamental Focus of the Oil Market Has Shifted: Oil Futures

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Oil Futures Touch Fresh Highs: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Morningstar

Oil futures touch fresh highs for the year on bets for tighter global supplies

“The fundamental focus of the oil market has shifted from demand — more specifically concerns that a slowdown in global growth will hurt consumer spending on refined products — to the supply side as Russia and Saudi Arabia caught markets off guard with their output cut extension announcements,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter.

Factoring in the extended cuts, “many forecasts reflect deepening supply deficits in physical markets into the end of the year and that, paired with another wave of speculators getting scared out of the market by the latest OPEC+ surprise, has resulted in the latest leg higher to fresh 2023 highs in oil,” they said.

Looking ahead, the path of least resistance is higher for oil right now, with WTI “fast approaching our initial upside target of $89 [a] barrel,” the Sevens Report analysts said. “However, we remain in the camp that the onset of a recession will derail the rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more… To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch on August 21st, 2023

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Oil prices settle lower to extend last week’s losses

Meanwhile, a consistent run of strong U.S. economic data has raised fears the Federal Reserve may need to push interest rates higher than previously expected and hold them there for longer than previously anticipated, while weekly government data last week showed a pullback in consumer fuel demand and a post-pandemic high in U.S. crude production, analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a note.

Click here to read the full article.