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Why Did Stocks Rally After the Jobs Report?

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Why Did Stocks Rally After the Jobs Report? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Stocks Rally After the Jobs Report?
  • What to Make of This Market (Updated Near and Medium-Term Outlook)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Inflation in Focus This Week (CPI Thursday is Very Important)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Rising Oil Prices Become Another Headwind?

Futures are moderately lower on rising geo-political tensions following the Hamas attack on Israel over the weekend.

The human tragedy and geo-political implications aside, from a market standpoint the attack matters because rising geo-political tensions mean higher oil prices (up 3% currently) and the higher oil goes, the stronger the additional headwind on stocks and bonds.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are several Fed speakers, including Logan, Barr, and Jefferson, although they shouldn’t move markets.  So, oil will likely be the driver of asset prices today and the higher oil goes, the stronger the headwind on stocks.

Why Did Stocks Rally After the Jobs Report?

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Why This Market Is Still All About the Data

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Why This Market Is Still All About the Data: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why This Market Is Still All About the Data
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis (How Far Can the Rally Go?)

Futures are slightly higher as encouraging inflation data from Europe was partially offset by ongoing government shutdown and labor strike worries.

Spanish Core CPI rose 5.8% vs. (E) 6.1% and importantly reminded markets that disinflation was still occurring.

Politically, a government shutdown looks increasingly likely while the UAW again threatened to expand the strike.

Today will be a busy day as there are important economic reports and notable Fed speak to watch.  Economically, the key report is Jobless Claims (E: 211K) and markets need this number to move higher to ease tight labor market concerns.  We also get the final look at Q2 GDP (E: 2.3%) but that shouldn’t move markets.

On the Fed, Powell speaks at 4:00 p.m. ET and while he’s not expected to address policy, there will be Q&A.  Other speakers today include Goolsbee (9:00 a.m. ET), Cook (1:00 p.m.), and Barkin (7:00 p.m.).

Why This Market Is Still All About the Data

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Potential Bearish Gamechangers?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Strikes and Government Shutdowns Potential Bearish Gamechangers?

Futures are bouncing slightly after the BOJ rate decision met expectations while economic data was “ok” overnight.

The BOJ made no change to policy and President Ueda was not hawkish in his comments, easing a bit of the hawkish anxiety that’s weighed on markets this week.

Economically, the EU flash composite PMI beat estimates (47.1 vs. (E) 46.5) although it’s still in contraction territory.

Today focus will be on the flash PMIs and expectations are as follows:  Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.8), Flash Service PMI (E: 50.2).  Markets need a Goldilocks number of a solid (but not great) headline readings, and stable price indices.  If we get the opposite (weak headline and higher price indices) that’ll be another stagflation signal and expect the selling to continue.

We also have two Fed speakers today, Cook (8:50 a.m. ET) and Daly (1:00 p.m. ET), but neither should move markets.

Potential Bearish Gamechangers

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Key Levels to Watch on Fed Day

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Key Levels to Watch on Fed Day: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Key Technical Levels to Watch on Fed Day – Print or Share These Charts
  • Is Canadian CPI a Warning on Inflation?

U.S. equity futures are rising alongside European shares this morning. Resulting from a dovish market reaction to a “cooler than feared” inflation print in the U.K. overnight.

Headline CPI in the U.K. dropped to 6.7% vs. (E) 7.1% in August while Core fell to 6.2% vs. (E) 6.8%. The data was a clear surprise and has resulted in rates markets lowering odds of a BoE rate hike tomorrow to 50% from near 100% previously, supporting risk-on money flows this morning.

There are no economic reports or Treasury auctions today. This will likely leave markets in a state of “Fed Paralysis” until the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET).

Also, to request a one-page PDF “tear sheet” of the charts on Page 2 of today’s Report, complete with price level explanations, email info@sevensreport.com.

Key Levels to Watch

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Economic Data Fueled the Rally

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Why Economic Data Fueled the Rally: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Yesterday’s Economic Data Fueled the Rally
  • An Important Chart (On Page One)

Futures are slightly higher on more Chinese economic optimism as data was better than expected while Chinese officials announced more stimulus.

Chinese Retail Sales (4.6% vs. (E) 3.9%) and Industrial Production (4.5% vs. (E) 3.9%) beat expectations while authorities injected 120 billion yuan into a lending facility.

Today’s focus will be on economic data and if data is “Goldilocks” like we saw on Thursday, expect a continuation of yesterday’s rally.  Conversely, if the data shows inflation hot or growth slowing, the markets could give back most of yesterday’s rally.

Also, the important reports to watch today include:  Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -10.0), Import and Export Prices (E: 0.3%, 0.4%), Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), and Consumer Sentiment (E: 69.2).

Finally, today is quadruple witching options expiration so don’t be surprised by big volumes and increased volatility during the final hour of trading.

Economic Data

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CPI’s Influence on Market Dynamics: A Closer Look

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CPI’s Influence on Market Dynamics: Tom Essaye Quoted by BNN Bloomberg

Nasdaq 100 Drops 1 per cent as Apple slides after event

CPI is really key because if it halts its downward trend, markets will have to price in a more hawkish Fed. And that would be a headwind on stocks, said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter.

Lastly, “Put in a more familiar way, CPI impacts two of the three pillars of the rally: disinflation and expectation the Fed is done with rate hikes,” Essaye noted.

Also, click here to view the full BNN Bloomberg article published on September 12th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full discussion on CPI’s influence on markets sign up here.

CPI's Influence - BNN

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Oil Market Analysis: Potential Pullback Amidst Upward Trend

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Global Oil Demand & Market Analysis: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MorningStar

Oil prices extend rise on supply worries

“On balance, the absence of sizable downward revisions to global oil demand over the next two years, despite recession risks, helped the oil market power on to new highs. Futures have become overextended to the upside and are in technically overbought territory on the daily time frame charts, leaving the market susceptible to a profit-taking pullback in what is otherwise a still clearly upwardly trending energy market,” analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a note.

A hot consumer-price index reading Wednesday morning or a bearish weekly supply report from the Energy Information Administration could serve as a catalyst for a pullback,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on September 13th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Global Oil - Morningstar

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What CPI Means for Markets

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What CPI Means for Markets: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What CPI Means for Markets (Four Takeaways)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly higher thanks to more Chinese economic stimulus and as markets await the ECB decision and important economic data later this morning.

China cut bank reserve requirements by 25 bps in the latest step to help support the Chinese economy and there are signs these measures are starting to have an impact.

Economically, there were no important reports overnight.

Today will be a busy day starting with the ECB Meeting and the market expects a 25 bps hike. But it’ll be a close call and no hike and hawkish rhetoric shouldn’t be a shock.

Lastly, there are multiple important reports today including: Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Retail Sales (E: 0.2%), Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.2% y/y), and PPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 1.3% y/y).  Bottom line, markets want Goldilocks data, especially from the jobs report and Control Group in retail sales. Because that data will show easing wage pressures and resilient consumer spending.

What CPI Means

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CPI Impacts Two of The Three Pillars of The Rally

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CPI impacts two of the three pillars of the rally: Tom Essaye Quoted in The Spokesman-Review

Wall Street takes risk off table before CPI report

CPI is key because if it halts its downward trend, markets will have to price in a more hawkish Fed. That would be a headwind on stocks, said Tom Essaye, who founded The Sevens Report newsletter.

“Put in a more familiar way, CPI impacts two of the three pillars of the rally: disinflation and expectation the Fed is done with rate hikes,” Essaye noted. “If CPI is too hot, both will be damaged.”

Also, click here to view the full Spokesman-Review article published on September 12th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tech Shares Have Been Driving The Major Stock Indices So Far This Week

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Tech shares have been driving the major indices: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Slip. Apple Event in Focus Ahead of CPI Data.

“Tech shares have been driving the major stock indices so far this week,” Essaye writes. “So any meaningful reaction in [AAPL] shares will likely move the broader indices as focus turns ahead to CPI tomorrow.”

With no major economic reports ahead of Wednesday’s release of the consumer price index for August, Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye writes that Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) new product event will be a key focus. The event is expected to unveil the next line of iPhones. Wall Street doesn’t foresee the device will be a massive step up from recent releases.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on September 12th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Tech Shares - Barron's Quote

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