And don’t forget about the Nevada caucus, where Bernie Sanders scored a big victory. “Politically, Sanders won the Nevada Caucus with more than 40% of the vote, implying his base is bigger than thought, meaning he might be a more…” writes The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures were volatile overnight, reversing from tentative gains to losses as global shares continued to decline amid the evolving coronavirus outbreak situation.
News regarding COVID-19 remained largely the same overnight; the outbreak in China continues to be contained but is spreading more rapidly in other regions including the EU.
The 10-Yr yield is encouragingly stabilizing this morning while the 2-Yr continues to decline as traders are now pricing in 65% odds of a Fed rate cut by April due to the coronavirus outbreak’s negative effects on the economy.
Today, coronavirus headlines will continue to dominate the news and markets however, there is one economic report to watch: New Home Sales (E: 708K) and two Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Kaplan (9:35 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures enjoyed a “relief rally” overnight but have since returned to the flat mark as yields continue to bleed lower amid coronavirus fears however there were no materially negative developments regarding the outbreak since yesterday’s close.
There were no market-moving economic reports overnight.
While investor focus will continue to be on the COVID-19 outbreak, there are a handful of additional catalysts on the calendar today that could move markets.
First, there are four economic reports to watch: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.5%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%), Consumer Confidence (E: 132.5), and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 13). Two Fed officials are also scheduled to speak during market hours: Kaplan (9:45 a.m. ET) and Clarida (3:00 p.m. ET).
Finally, the U.S. Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. This could be an important event to watch as the results of the auction could shed further light on the market’s expectations for rate cuts in the months ahead (which have risen significantly this week) and potentially compress the 10s-2s yield curve spread to fresh multi-month lows which could further stoke fears of a global slowdown.
“In the short-term, there are two things holding this market up. One, expectations of a dovish Fed. And it’s the expectation of a global economic rebound. If either one of those come into doubt, the market is going to…” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. Click here to watch the full video.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Global equity markets are rallying as the spread of the coronavirus continues to slow while statistics show that Sanders victory in the New Hampshire primary increases the odds of a “market-friendly” Trump reelection in 2020.
Eurozone Industrial Production was soft in December with the headline falling -2.1% vs. (E) -1.8% but optimism for a 2020 economic rebound is offsetting the poor data point.
There are no notable economic reports today however there are two Fed speakers ahead of the bell: Harker (8:30 a.m. ET) and Daly ( 9:00 a.m. ET), while Powell will testify before Congress for a second day (10:00 a.m. ET).
Outside of the Fed speakers today, the Treasury will hold a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and as has been the case recently, any sizeable moves in the bond market, especially that impact the yield curve, could influence stock trading in the afternoon.
“Energy traders are focused on the coronavirus right now, trying to gauge how it has, and will, affect demand in China, supply internationally, and ultimately how OPEC+ will adjust…” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
But that hasn’t exactly been reflected in this morning’s trading activity. Some analysts, like The Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, believe that the jobs gain was already priced-in by automated trading firms.
“I don’t think it was anything surprising because we had very good ADP number and good jobless…” Essaye said. Click here to read the full article.
“I don’t think it was anything surprising because we had very good ADP number and good jobless claims. So people were expecting a good number. Overall, what the jobs number is saying about the economy is what we already know…” said Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
The National Health Commission of China reported 7,711 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, including 170 casualties. According to CNBC, Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said that global markets are “becoming more concerned” about future earnings and economic growth…Click here to read the full article.
“The spread of the Wuhan virus isn’t accelerating, but markets becoming more concerned about future earnings and economic growth as companies implement work stoppages…” said Tom Essaye, the founder of The Sevens Report.
