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Copper Could Recover And Signal A Relief Rally

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Copper Could Recover: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Copper Prices Have Tumbled. Is a Global Recession Coming?

That’s why, for copper, “there is key 2023 support between $3.57 and $3.62 [per pound] that will be in focus near term,” wrote Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. “If it holds, copper could recover and signal a relief rally developing in risk assets more broadly but a violation would be a negative signal for global markets.” 

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article on stock futures are bouncing published on September 28th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Copper Could Recover

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Economic Breaker Panel: May Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel – May Update
  • Chart: Copper Breakdown

Stock futures are trading cautiously higher this morning ahead of the Fed while oil prices are spiking after the EU announced plans for a full Russian oil embargo that will be phased in over the next 6 months.

Economic data was mostly in-line with estimates overnight with Composite PMI reports notably holding up better than the recently released manufacturing PMIs which is a modest tailwind for risk assets this morning.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 398K) due out ahead of the open while the ISM Services Index (E: 58.9) will be released shortly after the bell. The market will want to see firm data that helps contradict the idea that the Fed is beginning to accelerate the pace of rate hikes into an economic slowdown.

From there, price action should begin to slow as the Fed comes into focus with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) in the afternoon. A more hawkish than expected Fed could send stocks back down to test Monday’s lows while a not-as-hawkish-as-feared announcement/press conference would open the door to a relief rally back towards 4,300.

On the earnings front, there are a few notables today including: MRNA ($5.18), CVS ($2.14), MAR ($0.94), YUM ($1.07), UBER (-$0.28), and EBAY ($1.03).

Takeaways from Proctor and Gamble Earnings

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Best Broad Natural Resource ETF: GNR vs. GUNR
  • Takeaways from Proctor & Gamble Earnings
  • Charts: Copper Breakout and 10-Yr. Yield Into Resistance

Stock futures are little changed this morning as investors digest recent gains and await more important earnings results.

On the inflation front, German PPI ran hot (2.3% vs. E: 1.0%), but EU HICP (their CPI) met estimates of 0.5% which is helping ease some price related concerns this morning (yields are off the overnight highs).

Looking into today’s session, there are no notable economic reports but multiple Fed speakers including: Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (12:00 p.m. ET), Evans (12:00 p.m. ET), Quarles (1:00 p.m. ET), Bullard (1:45 p.m. ET), and Daly (8:35 p.m. ET).

Looking to earnings, focus will be on: VZ ($1.36), WGO ($1.98), and ABT ($0.92) reporting pre-market and then TSLA ($1.49), IBM ($2.49), PPG ($1.56), and DFS ($3.38) releasing results after the close.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 19, 2021

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Copper Prices Just Fell to a Dangerous Level. What That Means for the Economy.

The metal has found “key technical support at $4.20…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Barron's logo

Tom Essaye Quoted in India’s Investing.com on August 6, 2021

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Copper: As Bears Claw The Red Metal, Could It Slip Below $4?

The point to watch is whether the price falls to $4.20…Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said in a note. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg on June 14, 2021

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From Copper to Corn, Markets Show Peak Inflation Fear Has Passed

Even though inflation metrics are high, the pressure is starting to come off and that leaves investors to say…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Why Does It Matter When the Fed Tapers QE?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Does It Matter When the Fed Tapers QE?
  • A Strong Rebound in Consumer Confidence
  • Chart: Copper Hits Near-Decade Highs

U.S. stock futures are little changed this morning as a sense of “Fed paralysis” continues to grip the markets ahead of today’s FOMC announcement.

Investors are also awaiting details of Biden’s “American Families” plan and earnings from several big tech companies.

This morning, investors will be watching one economic release: International Trade in Goods (E: -$87.5B) but the report should not materially move markets given focus will largely be on the afternoon Fed events: FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET).

Although the Fed will be the main driver of markets today, there are several notable companies reporting earnings that could impact individual stock and sector trade including BA (-$1.17), GD ($2.31), and YUM ($0.85) before the open and heavyweights AAPL ($0.99), FB ($2.36), QCOM ($1.67), and F ($0.16) after the closing bell.

Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch on February 22, 2021

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March copper HGH21, 0.86% climbed by 1.6% to $4.141 a pound. Copper futures gained nearly 7.6% last week “with the upside move accelerating into the weekend as traders bet on sustainably strong demand given…” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Monday newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey Appeared on TD Ameritrade on August 6, 2019

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Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report Research, had a great interview with TD Ameritrade’s Ben Lichtenstein on August 6, discussing copper trading near 2019 lows, correlation with tenure yields, what comes next for copper, possible influencers, catalysts for copper, stocks and more…Click here to watch the full interview

TD Ameritrade_Interview Clip

Tom Essaye was Quoted in CNBC on August 5, 2019

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Copper, a barometer for the global economy, drops to a 2-year low on trade war fears

“The combination of a disappointing Fed and an escalating trade war appears to be too much for this fragile global economy. The summer breakdown in copper…” said the Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.

Copper Pipes