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What the Ceasefire Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Ceasefire Means for Markets
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Update (April)
  • Durable Goods Orders Takeaways

Stock futures are sharply higher, and oil is down a staggering 15%+ this morning after a last minute ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached late yesterday, triggering broad risk-on money flows globally.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released however, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which will shed light on bond traders “real” reaction to the ceasefire agreement. It will be important to see strong demand in the 10-Yr auction to assure investors stagflation worries have eased amid the ceasefire.

Additionally, while there are no Fed speakers today, the March Fed meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and any insight on timing (and direction) of the FOMC’s next policy rate move has the potential to move markets this afternoon.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings reports today including DAL ($0.61), RPM ($0.37), and STZ ($1.74), however, the primary market focus will remain on the ceasefire deal, and any geopolitical developments today, particularly negative ones that push back on the prospects that the deal is sustainable, could trigger a retracement of the massive overnight moves.

 

Pullback Update: What’s Happening, What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Pullback Update: What’s Happening, What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse
  • Weekly Market Preview: Are there any Real Signs of De-escalation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Report Friday (It’s a Busy Week for Data)

Futures are modestly higher in reaction to more positive commentary from President Trump on the war in Iran.

President Trump told the FT that Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15 point ceasefire plan and that is boosting futures.

Away from rhetoric, the conflict escalated further over the weekend as the Houthis attacked Israel while an Iranian missile struck a Saudi air base, damaging military aircraft. The gap between rhetoric and actual events in the conflict is keeping any gains in futures modest.

Today focus will remain on the U.S./Iran war and for this early bounce to hold, we’ll need to see some events on the ground also point towards de-escalation.  Away from the war, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10:00 a.m., so his comments have the potential to move markets.

 

Sevens Report Q1 ’26 Quarterly Letter Coming This Wednesday.

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Would a Ceasefire Be a Bullish Catalyst?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is a Ceasefire in Ukraine a Bullish Catalyst?
  • Oil Chart: Trend Remains Higher

Stock futures are lower with EU shares amid negative economic forecasts, a deteriorating state of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and growing concerns about the yield curve.

Geopolitically, the Kremlin stated that the latest talks have not been “promising” and much work still needs to be done which is weighing on risk assets and bolstering oil prices this morning.

Economically, Germany cut its GDP growth forecast to just 1.8% in 2022 from 4.6% previously and an EU economic sentiment survey missed estimates.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on jobs and growth data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 438K) and Final Q4 GDP report (E: 7.1%) due out before the bell.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers: Barkin (9:15 a.m. ET) and George (1:00 p.m. ET) but based on this morning’s price action, geopolitics remain the most notable influence on markets, and sentiment towards the war in Ukraine will likely be the biggest driver of markets again today.