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Could Be A “Canary In The Coal Mine” For The Stock Market

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Tom Essaye said that cheap AI stock valuations could signal that investors are growing fearful that the data center boom could come to a halt.

Why Oracle’s recent credit downgrade could be a warning sign for stocks

According to Tyler Richey, a technical analyst at Sevens Report Research, it could be a “canary in the coal mine” for the stock market.

The ratings agency cut Oracle’s rating from BBB, citing heavy infrastructure spending and it’s high exposure to OpenAI as risks to its ability to meet its debt obligations. While the news went relatively unnoticed in the stock market, Sevens Report says equity investors should pay attention, as it could be an early warning of bigger issues on the horizon.

“ORCL very well may turn out to be the first of the mega-cap-tech ‘Hyperscalers’ to be rolling over into what could (and is increasingly likely to) prove to be the early stages of a longer-term, cyclical bear market for equities,” Richey wrote in a July 13 client note.

“A higher trending junk bond yield index with stocks trading near all-time highs is a troublesome combination,” Richey said.

“Bottom line, the ORCL downgrade last week served as a stark reminder that critical signals from the bond market can be subtle at first, but offer both fair warning of a potential downturn, and a rare opportunity to take action to protect principle in riskier equity and bond market holdings,” Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on July 17th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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The Canary in the Coal Mine for Memory

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Canary in the Coal Mine for Memory
  • Advisor Advantage: 12 Ways to Save Money on Gas This Summer (Client Material)

Futures are slightly lower following tit-for-tat missile/drone strikes between the U.S. and Iran.

The U.S. and Iran traded limited missile/drone attacks although the moves were “defensive” and ceasefire expectations remain intact.

Barring a ceasefire agreement or major escalation between the U.S. and Iran, the focus today will be on economic data and the key reports are, in order of importance: Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.3% y/y), Durable Goods (E: 2.8%), Jobless Claims (E: 213K), Q1 GDP (E: 2.1%),  New Home Sales (E: 662K).  For these economic releases the key is solid activity and stable prices, as that will push back on stagflation concerns.

Today also brings numerous Fed speakers including Williams (8:55 a.m.), Musalem (10:15 a.m.) and Barkin (3:00 p.m.).  Of the three, Williams is the most important because he’s part of Fed leadership and if he hints at an openness to rate hikes it will be a headwind on stocks.

Finally, on the earnings front, the key report today will be DELL ($2.79) because it pertains to AI but two notable consumer reports are BBY ($1.22) and COST ($4.91).  For these earnings the stronger, the better for markets.

 

Alpha Report: The AI Trade Is Evolving Beyond Chips and Mega-Cap Tech

The AI trade is no longer just about semiconductors and the “Magnificent Seven.” In this week’s Alpha Report, we examine how AI spending is beginning to ripple through other parts of the economy and market, creating potential opportunities beyond the obvious names that have already surged.

Specifically, we break down where AI-related capital spending is flowing next, which sectors and industries may quietly benefit from the second-order effects of the buildout, and how investors can think about positioning if the AI trade broadens from here.

The report is designed to help you move beyond the headlines and better explain to clients where the next phase of the AI investment cycle may emerge.

👉 Access the full report and analysis here: Sevens Report Alpha