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Bond Yield Breakout

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did Global Bond Yields Finally Breakout?

Futures are slightly lower following a quiet night as markets digest Thursday’s “tariff reduction” headlines while economic data continued to show mild improvement.  There was no new trade news overnight.

Economically, Chinese and German exports slightly beat estimates (Chinese exports down –0.9% vs. (E) -3.9%), German exports up 1.5% vs. (E) 0.3%) in another sign that global growth may be stabilizing.

Today there is just one economic report, Consumer Sentiment (E 96.0) and three Fed speakers, Daly (11:45 a.m. ET), Williams (8:00 p.m. ET) and Brainard (8:45 p.m. ET) but none of that should move markets as U.S./China trade is totally dominating the market narrative right now.

Given that, any confirmation of immediate tariff reduction with a phase one agreement will extend the rally in stocks and yields, while any contradiction of yesterday’s tariff reduction headlines will weigh on markets.