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Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Would New Highs in the Dow Be Positive for Stocks? (Not Necessarily)

Futures are little changed as markets await today’s important jobs report.

Politically, the Big, Beautiful Bill made more progress in the House overnight and it is expected to pass by July 4th (although this expected so it’s not a market moving event).

Economically, both EU and UK Composite PMIs beat expectations, pushing back growth fears in those regions.

Today focus will be on economic data and specifically the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 110K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 0.3% Wages.  Given yesterday’s soft ADP report, the stronger the number, the better as it’ll push back on slowdown fears.  Other important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 240K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 50.5) and, again, better than expected numbers will be welcomed by the markets.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker: Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET) but he shouldn’t move markets.

Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)
  • Powell’s Tone Tilts Dovish
  • ISM Manufacturing Data Takeaways
  • Chart – Rise in JOLTS Highlights Labor Market Resilience

Stock futures are slightly higher but well off their overnight highs as traders mull President Trump’s fresh tariff threats (mostly directed at Japan) and await June payrolls data.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2% in May which was a slight negative regarding the outlook for the global economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak which will leave early focus on today’s June ADP Employment Report (E: 103K) due out ahead of the bell.

Additionally, UNF ($2.12) is due to report earnings (but the release should not materially move markets) and there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Bottom line, with the June jobs report looming tomorrow, a big surprise in the ADP could impact markets while the 4-Month Bill auction could shed light on Fed policy expectations (the more dovish, the better) but today should be a relatively quiet day of positioning into the BLS release barring any new trade war developments.

Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term

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Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term: Sevens Report Founder Tom Essaye, Quoted in Bloomberg

US Stocks Extend Losing Run as Geopolitics Dampens Investor Mood

“There were already a lot of unknowns for investors to contend with and we’ve added another with the Israel/Iran conflict,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report newsletter. “Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term and make rallies a bit harder to manufacture, but these unknowns are not, by themselves, enough to cause a correction.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 20th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report Editor Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

Stocks Rise on Reports Iran Wants to Restart Talks: Markets Wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’

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The scales are tipped in favor of the May-Sellers: Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Bloomberg

Old Wisdom of ‘Sell in May’ Back in Focus as Stock Market Churns

“The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’ this year,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, adding that the risks are skewed toward the S&P 500 suffering another big decline next month.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

We’re seeing mostly technical dip-buying

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We’re seeing mostly technical dip-buying: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Bloomberg

Stocks Rise as Buyers Scoop Up Bargains After Rout: Markets Wrap

“We’re seeing mostly technical dip-buying,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “Economic growth is undoubtedly and clearly losing momentum, but a soft landing remains more likely than a hard landing. This week focus turns back to inflation.”

Also, click here to view the full Bloomberg article published on September 8th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Markets could get a bit ugly given recent tech weakness

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Markets could get a bit ugly given recent tech weakness: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Bloomberg

Tech Stocks Hit as Microsoft Down 6% in Late Hours: Markets Wrap

“If the Fed does not signal a September rate cut, markets could get a bit ugly given recent tech weakness — especially if earnings underwhelm,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full Bloomberg article published on July 29th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The fundamentals are positive but they still don’t justify current valuations

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The fundamentals are positive but they still don’t justify current valuations: Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg Featured on Yahoo Finance

Stocks Struggle Near Record Before Inflation Data: Markets Wrap

The current set-up reflects the drivers that have powered stocks higher this year: solid growth, prospects for Fed rate cuts and artificial-intelligence enthusiasm, according to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “While the fundamentals are positive, they still don’t justify current valuations — making the market vulnerable to a negative surprise.”

Also, click here to view the full Bloomberg article featured on Yahoo Finance published on March 13th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The AI Craze Is A Modern Gold Rush

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The AI Craze Is A Modern Gold Rush: Tom Essaye Quoted on BNN Bloomberg

Markets today: tech giants drag down U.S. stocks after torrid rally

“The AI craze is a modern gold rush, and the tech ‘picks and shovels companies’ are seeing earnings explode as companies buy chips and cloud space to fuel the boom,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “But if AI doesn’t result in increased profitability for the rest of the S&P 500 over the coming years, then demand for AI chips will evaporate as will AI-related cloud demand.”

Also, click here to view the full BNN Bloomberg article published on March 4th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Nvidia Has Been The ‘Poster Child’ Of AI Enthusiasm

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Nvidia Has Been The ‘Poster Child’ Of AI Enthusiasm: Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg Featured on Yahoo Finance

Tech Up in Late Hours on Nvidia’s Bullish Outlook: Markets Wrap

“Nvidia has been the ‘poster child’ of AI enthusiasm because NVDA makes the type of semiconductor chips that power generative AI and demand for those chips has gone through the roof,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “The AI-driven rally in the ‘Mag Seven’ is largely justified by the fact that they’re making a lot more money than they were previously.”

While Nvidia is the proverbial “picks and shovels” of the “AI gold rush”, other big-tech companies such as Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. have also seen large stock rallies as investors expect these companies to harness the power of generative AI to boost profits, Essaye noted.

“Has the AI mania gone too far and are we looking at a bubble situation?” Essaye said. “Based on what most of us think about typical bubbles, the answer is ‘no’ they are not in a bubble.”

Also, click here to view the full Bloomberg article featured on Yahoo Finance published on February 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.