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What the Ceasefire Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Ceasefire Means for Markets
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Update (April)
  • Durable Goods Orders Takeaways

Stock futures are sharply higher, and oil is down a staggering 15%+ this morning after a last minute ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached late yesterday, triggering broad risk-on money flows globally.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released however, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which will shed light on bond traders “real” reaction to the ceasefire agreement. It will be important to see strong demand in the 10-Yr auction to assure investors stagflation worries have eased amid the ceasefire.

Additionally, while there are no Fed speakers today, the March Fed meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and any insight on timing (and direction) of the FOMC’s next policy rate move has the potential to move markets this afternoon.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings reports today including DAL ($0.61), RPM ($0.37), and STZ ($1.74), however, the primary market focus will remain on the ceasefire deal, and any geopolitical developments today, particularly negative ones that push back on the prospects that the deal is sustainable, could trigger a retracement of the massive overnight moves.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (March)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (March)

Futures are modestly lower as oil rises near $110/bbl amid continued Middle East escalation overnight.

Iran warned of “zero restraint” while attacks have reduced Qatar LNG output invoking force majeure on short-term deliveries and raised risks to regional energy supply.

Economically, German PPI came in at -0.5% m/m vs. (E) 0.3% m/m which continues a trend of easing producer inflation but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics and oil, although it is a Quadruple Witching Options Expiration which could increase volatility into the close.

There are no economic reports or notable earnings today. And Fed Chair Powell will be speaking on Saturday (1:30 p.m. ET).

 

Tom Essaye Talks About Gold vs. Bitcoin With Yahoo Finance

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Tom Essaye Talks About Gold vs. Bitcoin With Yahoo Finance

Gold vs. bitcoin: Which asset should investors be buying?

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye, Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré, and Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre examine gold and bitcoin’s past performances amid volatile periods.

So, if I had to buy something today, I would be buying Bitcoin, although I would be doing it knowing that I’m probably not buying the bottom. I think Jared’s right. I mean that there is no fundamental bottom for Bitcoin, right? I mean, there’s no earnings or discounted cash flow we can look at. So it’s just at what point does sentiment become washed out and people think there’s enough value to step in.

However, the reason I prefer Bitcoin today over gold is because every month in the Seven’s report, we do a Bitcoin and cryptocurrency industry update. And the amount of fundamental use of of large players that are that are integrating into cryptocurrencies that are buying Bitcoin to hold on their treasury stock. It’s it’s becoming more and more mainstream and it’s not an exciting event. It’s not going to create headlines. Even you guys announcing this morning, your partnership with Coinbase. This is in the the the sort of financial mainstream now. And so I think that that creates fundamental demand that over time will create a bullish thesis. Now, it doesn’t mean it can’t go down to 40,000 in the short term. We all know how Bitcoin trades, but I think as I look out, I’d rather be buying buying Bitcoin down at these levels than necessarily chasing gold above 5,000.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on February 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What’s Next from a Policy Standpoint

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Next from a Policy Standpoint
  • Monthly Bitcoin Update

Futures are moderately higher on continued positive momentum from the “deal” announced on Greenland by President Trump on Wednesday afternoon.

There were no new geopolitical headlines overnight and that’s allowing stocks to extend the rebound as markets celebrate no new tariffs and deescalation on Greenland. Today markets will want to see no backtracking on the Greenland “deal” and continued calm in JGB yields and if we get both, stocks should hold these early gains.

Looking at the calendar, there is some notable economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and two delayed reports from the government shutdown: Final Q3 GDP (E: 4.3%) and Nov. Core PCE Price Inde (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y).  However, barring a major surprise, none of those numbers should move markets.

On earnings, they’ve taken a back seat given all the geo-political drama but the season is heating up and some results we’re watching today include: PG ($1.87), GE ($1.44), FCX ($0.28), INTC (-$0.02), ABT ($1.50), ISRG ($1.83), COF ($4.12), AA ($0.84).

 

Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update
  • October JOLTS Takeaways

Futures are slightly lower while global stocks are mixed after a quiet night of news as today’s Fed decision comes into focus.

Economically, Chinese CPI met estimates of +0.7% Y/Y in November while PPI fell -2.2% vs. (E) -2.0% Y/Y.

Today, there is one economic report: Q3 Employment Cost Index (E: 0.9% m/m, 3.7% y/y) and one Treasury auction for 4-Month Bills (11:30 a.m. ET).

However, the main market focus will be the Fed today with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) both scheduled for the mid-afternoon.

Investors will be eyeing the Fed with hopes of a not-too-hawkish-cut, and if delivered, the S&P 500 could make a run at all-time highs while anything that disappoints the doves could weigh heavily on stocks in afternoon trade.

Outside the Fed, earnings season continues with CHWY ($0.12), ORCL ($1.29), ADBE ($4.39), and PL ($-0.07) reporting Q3 results. Investors will be keenly focused on the two big tech names specifically (ORCL and ADBE) for fresh insight on AI-industry guidance, and the stronger the reports the better for equity markets into year-end.

 

Tom Essaye: Bitcoin’s Drop Shows Its High-Risk Nature

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Tom Essaye: Bitcoin’s Drop Shows Its High-Risk Nature

Bitcoin price today: BTC bounces back to $88,500 after sharp dip below $84,000

Bitcoin’s latest slide caught investors off guard, occurring just days after the cryptocurrency briefly rebounded from the $80,000 level. The move largely reflected profit-taking, thin liquidity, and broader macro uncertainty that weighed on risk assets.

“Bitcoin remains a hyper-volatile, speculative asset. It still moves in sync with risk appetite. When markets tighten, Bitcoin falls harder,” said Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article on Businessupturn.com published on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed: Why a Drop Below $80K Could Trigger a Bigger Collapse for Bitcoin

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Crypto: A ‘trap door’ will open up if bitcoin falls below $80K

Crypto: A ‘trap door’ will open up if bitcoin falls below $80K

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye and Yahoo Finance senior reporters Brooke DiPalma and Ines Ferré weigh in on the state of the crypto space, coming as Bank of America is recommending that its wealth management clients should allocate 4% of their portfolios into crypto.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Is Bitcoin Still Falling?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Is Bitcoin Still Falling?
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

U.S. equity futures are higher thanks to the combination of a strong Japanese government bond auction and largely as-expected EU inflation data which are both helping yields stabilize after a sharp rise to start December yesterday.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Narrow Core HICP (Core CPI equivalent) held steady at 2.4% vs. (E) 2.5% in November.

Looking into today’s session, we will get data on domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.4 million) which likely won’t have a material impact on markets unless there is a significant drop signaling a potential slowdown in consumer spending.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), and the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. Markets are looking for dovish signals via strong demand for short-duration Treasuries and fresh support for a December Fed rate cut.

Finally, there are a few potentially market moving earnings releases today from some AI-sensitive companies including: MRVL ($0.58), CRWD ($0.07), and OKTA ($0.20).

 

Tom Essaye Flags Major Bitcoin Breakdown as Long-Term Holders Exit

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Why crypto’s having a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad month

Bitcoin’s latest slide may be signaling more trouble ahead, with several key technical and behavioral indicators turning sharply negative, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

Essaye said one of the earliest warning signs emerged in October, when Bitcoin’s powerful rally wasn’t confirmed by momentum indicators. “As Bitcoin pushed higher, the relative strength index failed to rise with it, and that divergence continued to point to further downside,” he noted.

The more decisive signal came this week when Bitcoin broke below critical support at $106,000, a level closely watched by both institutional and retail investors. The breakdown unleashed a wave of selling that Essaye described as unusually intense.

“This wasn’t driven by short-term traders — this was long-term investors exiting the market,” he said. The surge in selling volume reflects that shift: Bitcoin’s latest 4.4% decline occurred on some of the highest turnover of the second half of 2025, a trend Essaye warns has persisted across multiple down days.

The combination of momentum deterioration, major support failure, and heavy long-term holder distribution suggests that pressure may continue to build if prices fall further.

Also, click here to view the full article published in USAToday.com on November 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Warns Bitcoin Selling Could Trigger a “Doom Loop”

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There could be more pain ahead for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Just Had Its Worst Week in Months. Why Cryptos and Stocks Went in Different Directions Today.

“From a demand perspective it appears there is an early, yet growing, sense of concern that could evolve into full-on panic if the selling pressure continues to intensify further than it already has, as lower prices would prompt more selling in a doom loop of sorts,” analysts at financial research firm Sevens Report wrote on Friday.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on November 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.