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“It’s Pretty Much Economics 101”

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It’s pretty much Economics 101: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Bitcoin Halving: Here’s Why Some Expect Prices To Soar

Bitcoin rose 8,069% in the 12 months after the 2012 halving, 284% following the 2016 halving and 559% after the 2020 halving.“It’s pretty much Economics 101” that bitcoin prices go up after halving, according to Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye, who explained that so long as demand doesn’t decrease and new supply goes down, the “only thing left to move is price.”

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on April 17th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Fed Expectations has hopes for a June rate cut dashed by the hot CPI report

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Fed Expectations has hopes for a June rate cut dashed by the hot CPI report: Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

Cryptos slip as Powell doubles-down on delaying rate cuts

“Fed Expectations has hopes for a June rate cut dashed by the hot CPI report and now the market must deal with the possibility of just two — or even fewer — rate cuts in 2024,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said. “Remember the market started the year expecting seven cuts.”

Also, click here to view the full Blockwork article published on April 16th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart

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A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart
  • Dip-Buying Becomes Riskier in Late-Cycle Environments
  • Housings Starts Plunge in March – Chart

Futures are higher this morning as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense but stable, inflation data was largely as-expected, and good consumer-focused earnings are helping offset soft sales from chip-maker ASML.

Economically, EU Core CPI met estimates at 2.9% while the U.K.’s Core CPI figure was “warm” at 4.2% vs. (E) 4.1% but neither report is materially impacting the general “higher for longer” central bank policy stance in place right now.

There are no notable economic reports today and just two late-day Fed speakers: Mester (5:30 p.m. ET), Bowman (7:15 p.m. ET).

That will leave trader focus on the Treasury’s 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as weak demand would add upward pressure on yields and pressure stocks.

Additionally, earnings season continues with TRV ($4.75), CFG ($0.75), CSX ($0.45), and DFS ($2.98) reporting today, however, none of those names should have a significant impact on the broader market unless there is a glaring disappointment or upside surprise.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Technical Analyst Tyler Richey Laid Out The Case For A Looming Pullback For Bitcoin

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A Looming Pullback For Bitcoin: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Bitcoin Tops $70,000—But Is This Rebound Here To Stay?

Sevens Report technical analyst Tyler Richey laid out the case for a looming pullback for bitcoin as its relative strength index, a tool commonly used by technical strategists to measure the sustainability of a sharp rally or selloff, sits at its lowest level since early February, indicating a potentially “frothy and overextended” market for bitcoin.

Such technical analysis can be “hit-or-miss” for crypto assets, Richey added, considering crypto prices can behave far more erratically than those of other asset classes like stocks and physical commodities, but declining technical backing coupled with elevated prices “should not be sustainable forever,” suggesting $52,000 as a potential first true spot of resistance for bitcoin based on historical data, a backstop nearly 30% below bitcoin’s Monday price.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on March 25th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more… To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Is the Bitcoin “Halving?”

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What Is the Bitcoin “Halving?”: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is the Bitcoin “Halving?”
  • Manheim Used Vehicle Index Continues to Decline – Chart

Stock futures are little changed this morning as yields drift sideways and the dollar firms ahead of the Fed decision.

European markets were led lower by luxury brand names after soft earnings from Gucci’s parent company (Kering SA) offset favorable inflation data out of the UK.

Economically, the PBOC left the Loan Prime Rate at 3.45% which is seen as accommodative while U.K. CPI favorably fell from 5.1% to 4.5% vs. (E) 4.6% in February.

There are no notable economic reports today which will leave investor focus pretty much exclusively on the Fed with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

If the Fed is hawkish and signals a higher-for-longer policy stance (more so than is already priced in), expect some volatility in the wake of the decision while a dovish decision projecting confidence in a soft landing could see the 2024 rally extend to new highs.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Economic data this week has not been positive for stocks

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Economic data this week has not been positive for stocks: Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

Bitcoin holds below $70k on disappointing inflation reads this week

“Economic data this week has not been positive for stocks and while it hasn’t invalidated any of that bullish mantra, it has weakened it,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said. 

Also, click here to view the full Blockwork article published on March 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

More Aggressive Rate Cuts Will Provide Temporary Relief…

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More Aggressive Rate Cuts Will Provide Temporary Relief, It Won’t Stop A Decline In Stocks: Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

Bitcoin jumps above $60k for first time in 27 months

A hard landing and resulting economic slowdown could be enough to erase the stock gains traders have enjoyed since October, according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

“The reason a hard landing would be so damaging to markets in the near term is the Fed can’t really help the market out because it’s already dovishly pivoted and the market already expects aggressive rate cuts,” Essaye said. “So, while more aggressive rate cuts will provide temporary relief, it won’t stop a decline in stocks because the economic benefit of rate cuts will take too long to hit the economy to prevent a slowdown.”

Also, click here to view the full Blockwork article published on February 28th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is This A Teflon Market? (No. Here’s Why)

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Is This A Teflon Market? (No. Here’s Why): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This A Teflon Market? (No. Here’s Why)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Data and Fed Speak Extend the Rally?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  All About Employment (Jobs Report Friday among others).

Futures are slightly lower following quiet weekend of news as markets digest Friday’s rally.

Geopolitically, hope is growing for a six-week ceasefire in Gaza that could be announced in the coming days and that’s modestly weighing on oil prices.

The S&P 500 will become even more “AI” sensitive as SMCI  (Super Microcomputer) will in added to the S&P 500, incrementally increasing tech exposure to the index.

This will be a potentially busy week of catalysts but it starts slowly today as there are no economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Harker at 11:00 a.m. ET.  So, absent any surprises, expect yields to drive stocks.  If the 10-year Treasury yield drifts lower, don’t be surprised if stocks recoup these early losses.

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$57,691 Is The Next Key Resistance Level To Watch For Bitcoin

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The Next Key Resistance Level To Watch For Bitcoin: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on MSN

Bitcoin Falls Before Fed Minutes and Nvidia Earnings. Where Prices Could Go Next.

“There is a well-defined uptrend channel in place that leaves the path of least resistance higher,” said Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research. “$57,691 is the next key resistance level to watch” for Bitcoin, Essaye noted, referencing a technical indicator that flashed this technical level and adding that “we expect to at least see some hesitation as prices move into the mid $50,000s.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published by MSN on December 8th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Didn’t Hot Inflation Data Cause a Bigger Drop?

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Why Didn’t Hot Inflation Data Cause a Bigger Drop? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Didn’t the Hot Inflation Data Cause a Bigger Drop?
  • Economic Takeaways – Are Stagflation Risks Rising?

Stock futures are lower to start the week as a rate cut by China’s central bank failed to bolster investors’ appetite for risk overseas while domestic focus shifts to NVDA earnings.

The PBOC slashed the 5-Yr Loan Prime Rate by a record 25 bp overnight (E: -5 bp) but the rate cut failed to ease lingering concerns about the health of the property market and markets are trading with a moderate risk-off tone this morning.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Leading Economic Indicators (E: -0.1%) which has been flashing a recession signal for months, and Canadian CPI (E: 0.4%) which could further stoke inflation worries if the number comes in hot.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however the Treasury will hold 3-Month and 6-Month Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 52-Week Bill action at 1:00 p.m. ET. Based on the market’s increased sensitivity to rising bond yields in recent weeks, signs of weak demand in the auction could send yields to new highs which would act as a strengthening headwind on risk assets as we start the week.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.